Efficient computational strategies to learn the structure of probabilistic graphical models of cumulative phenomena

Structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is a NP-hard problem, which is further complicated by many theoretical issues, such as the I-equivalence among different structures. In this work, we focus on a specific subclass of BNs, named Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs), which include specific structural constraints based on Suppes' probabilistic causation to efficiently model cumulative phenomena. Here we compare the performance, via extensive simulations, of various state-of-the-art search strategies, such as local search techniques and Genetic Algorithms, as well as of distinct regularization methods. The assessment is performed on a large number of simulated datasets from topologies with distinct levels of complexity, various sample size and different rates of errors in the data. Among the main results, we show that the introduction of Suppes' constraints dramatically improve the inference accuracy, by reducing the solution space and providing a temporal ordering on the variables. We also report on trade-offs among different search techniques that can be efficiently employed in distinct experimental settings. This manuscript is an extended version of the paper "Structural Learning of Probabilistic Graphical Models of Cumulative Phenomena" presented at the 2018 International Conference on Computational Science

Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding causal inference rules. We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work. We also discuss how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the underlying distribution.Comment: 16 figure

Approximations of Algorithmic and Structural Complexity Validate Cognitive-behavioural Experimental Results

We apply methods for estimating the algorithmic complexity of sequences to behavioural sequences of three landmark studies of animal behavior each of increasing sophistication, including foraging communication by ants, flight patterns of fruit flies, and tactical deception and competition strategies in rodents. In each case, we demonstrate that approximations of Logical Depth and Kolmogorv-Chaitin complexity capture and validate previously reported results, in contrast to other measures such as Shannon Entropy, compression or ad hoc. Our method is practically useful when dealing with short sequences, such as those often encountered in cognitive-behavioural research. Our analysis supports and reveals non-random behavior (LD and K complexity) in flies even in the absence of external stimuli, and confirms the "stochastic" behaviour of transgenic rats when faced that they cannot defeat by counter prediction. The method constitutes a formal approach for testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying animal behaviour.Comment: 28 pages, 7 figures and 2 table

Credal Networks under Epistemic Irrelevance

A credal network under epistemic irrelevance is a generalised type of Bayesian network that relaxes its two main building blocks. On the one hand, the local probabilities are allowed to be partially specified. On the other hand, the assessments of independence do not have to hold exactly. Conceptually, these two features turn credal networks under epistemic irrelevance into a powerful alternative to Bayesian networks, offering a more flexible approach to graph-based multivariate uncertainty modelling. However, in practice, they have long been perceived as very hard to work with, both theoretically and computationally. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that this perception is no longer justified. We provide a general introduction to credal networks under epistemic irrelevance, give an overview of the state of the art, and present several new theoretical results. Most importantly, we explain how these results can be combined to allow for the design of recursive inference methods. We provide numerous concrete examples of how this can be achieved, and use these to demonstrate that computing with credal networks under epistemic irrelevance is most definitely feasible, and in some cases even highly efficient. We also discuss several philosophical aspects, including the lack of symmetry, how to deal with probability zero, the interpretation of lower expectations, the axiomatic status of graphoid properties, and the difference between updating and conditioning

Efficient algorithms for conditional independence inference

The topic of the paper is computer testing of (probabilistic) conditional independence (CI) implications by an algebraic method of structural imsets. The basic idea is to transform (sets of) CI statements into certain integral vectors and to verify by a computer the corresponding algebraic relation between the vectors, called the independence implication. We interpret the previous methods for computer testing of this implication from the point of view of polyhedral geometry. However, the main contribution of the paper is a new method, based on linear programming (LP). The new method overcomes the limitation of former methods to the number of involved variables. We recall/describe the theoretical basis for all four methods involved in our computational experiments, whose aim was to compare the efficiency of the algorithms. The experiments show that the LP method is clearly the fastest one. As an example of possible application of such algorithms we show that testing inclusion of Bayesian network structures or whether a CI statement is encoded in an acyclic directed graph can be done by the algebraic method