Building Energy Load Forecasting using Deep Neural Networks

Ensuring sustainability demands more efficient energy management with minimized energy wastage. Therefore, the power grid of the future should provide an unprecedented level of flexibility in energy management. To that end, intelligent decision making requires accurate predictions of future energy demand/load, both at aggregate and individual site level. Thus, energy load forecasting have received increased attention in the recent past, however has proven to be a difficult problem. This paper presents a novel energy load forecasting methodology based on Deep Neural Networks, specifically Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. The presented work investigates two variants of the LSTM: 1) standard LSTM and 2) LSTM-based Sequence to Sequence (S2S) architecture. Both methods were implemented on a benchmark data set of electricity consumption data from one residential customer. Both architectures where trained and tested on one hour and one-minute time-step resolution datasets. Experimental results showed that the standard LSTM failed at one-minute resolution data while performing well in one-hour resolution data. It was shown that S2S architecture performed well on both datasets. Further, it was shown that the presented methods produced comparable results with the other deep learning methods for energy forecasting in literature

Short term power load forecasting using Deep Neural Networks

Accurate load forecasting greatly influences the planning processes undertaken in operation centres of energy providers that relate to the actual electricity generation, distribution, system maintenance as well as electricity pricing. This paper exploits the applicability of and compares the performance of the Feed-forward Deep Neural Network (FF-DNN) and Recurrent Deep Neural Network (R-DNN) models on the basis of accuracy and computational performance in the context of time-wise short term forecast of electricity load. The herein proposed method is evaluated over real datasets gathered in a period of 4 years and provides forecasts on the basis of days and weeks ahead. The contribution behind this work lies with the utilisation of a time-frequency (TF) feature selection procedure from the actual “raw” dataset that aids the regression procedure initiated by the aforementioned DNNs. We show that the introduced scheme may adequately learn hidden patterns and accurately determine the short-term load consumption forecast by utilising a range of heterogeneous sources of input that relate not necessarily with the measurement of load itself but also with other parameters such as the effects of weather, time, holidays, lagged electricity load and its distribution over the period. Overall, our generated outcomes reveal that the synergistic use of TF feature analysis with DNNs enables to obtain higher accuracy by capturing dominant factors that affect electricity consumption patterns and can surely contribute significantly in next generation power systems and the recently introduced SmartGrid

Appliance-level Short-term Load Forecasting using Deep Neural Networks

The recently employed demand-response (DR) model enabled by the transformation of the traditional power grid to the SmartGrid (SG) allows energy providers to have a clearer understanding of the energy utilisation of each individual household within their administrative domain. Nonetheless, the rapid growth of IoT-based domestic appliances within each household in conjunction with the varying and hard-to-predict customer-specific energy requirements is regarded as a challenge with respect to accurately profiling and forecasting the day-to-day or week-to-week appliance-level power consumption demand. Such a forecast is considered essential in order to compose a granular and accurate aggregate-level power consumption forecast for a given household, identify faulty appliances, and assess potential security and resilience issues both from an end-user as well as from an energy provider perspective. Therefore, in this paper we investigate techniques that enable this and propose the applicability of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) for short-term appliance-level power profiling and forecasting. We demonstrate their superiority over the past heavily used Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in terms of prediction accuracy and computational performance with experiments conducted over real appliance-level dataset gathered in four residential households

Regional And Residential Short Term Electric Demand Forecast Using Deep Learning

For optimal power system operations, electric generation must follow load demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution utilities require load forecasting for planning and operating grid infrastructure efficiently, securely, and economically. This thesis work focuses on short-term load forecast (STLF), that concentrates on the time-interval from few hours to few days. An inaccurate short-term load forecast can result in higher cost of generating and delivering power. Hence, accurate short-term load forecasting is essential. Traditionally, short-term load forecasting of electrical demand is typically performed using linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA), and artificial neural networks (ANN). These conventional methods are limited in application for big datasets, and often their accuracy is a matter of concern. Recently, deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for machine-learning problems, and known for real-time data processing, parallel computations, and ability to work with a large dataset with higher accuracy. DNNs have been shown to greatly outperform traditional methods in many disciplines, and they have revolutionized data analytics. Aspired from such a success of DNNs in machine learning problems, this thesis investigated the DNNs potential in electrical load forecasting application. Different DNN Types such as multilayer perception model (MLP) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) such as long short-term memory (LSTM), Gated recurrent Unit (GRU) and simple RNNs for different datasets were evaluated for accuracies. This thesis utilized the following data sets: 1) Iberian electric market dataset; 2) NREL residential home dataset; 3) AMPds smart-meter dataset; 4) UMass Smart Home datasets with varying time intervals or data duration for the validating the applicability of DNNs for short-term load forecasting. The Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) evaluation indicates DNNs outperform conventional method for multiple datasets. In addition, a DNN based smart scheduling of appliances was also studied. This work evaluates MAPE accuracies of clustering-based forecast over non-clustered forecasts

Application of Deep Learning Long Short-Term Memory in Energy Demand Forecasting

The smart metering infrastructure has changed how electricity is measured in both residential and industrial application. The large amount of data collected by smart meter per day provides a huge potential for analytics to support the operation of a smart grid, an example of which is energy demand forecasting. Short term energy forecasting can be used by utilities to assess if any forecasted peak energy demand would have an adverse effect on the power system transmission and distribution infrastructure. It can also help in load scheduling and demand side management. Many techniques have been proposed to forecast time series including Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network and Deep Learning. In this work we use Long Short Term Memory architecture to forecast 3-day ahead energy demand across each month in the year. The results show that 3-day ahead demand can be accurately forecasted with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 3.15%. In addition to that, the paper proposes way to quantify the time as a feature to be used in the training phase which is shown to affect the network performance

A DEEP LEARNING MODEL FOR ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTING BASED ON A TROPICAL DATA

Electricity demand forecasting is a term used for prediction of users’ consumption on the grid ahead of actual demand. It is very important to all power stakeholders across levels. The power players employ electricity demand forecasting for sundry purposes. Moreover, the government’s policy on its market deregulation has greatly amplified its essence. Despite numerous studies on the subject using certain classical approaches, there exists an opportunity for exploration of more sophisticated methods such as the deep learning (DL) techniques. Successful researches about DL applications to com¬puter vision, speech recognition, and acoustic computing problems are motivation. However, such researches are not sufficiently exploited for electricity demand forecasting using DL methods. In this paper, we considered specific DL techniques (LSTM, CNN, and MLP) to short-term load fore¬casting problems, using tropical institutional data obtained from a Transmission Company. We also test how accurate are predictions across the techniques. Our results relatively revealed models appropriateness for the problem

AN OVERVIEW OF DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY LOAD FORECASTING

This paper presents an overview of some Deep Learning (DL) techniques applicable to forecasting electricity consumptions, especially in the short-term horizon. The paper introduced key parts of four DL architectures including the RNN, LSTM, CNN and SAE, which are recently adopted in implementing Short-term (electricity) Load Forecasting problems. It further presented a model approach for solving such problems. The eventual implication of the study is to present an insightful direction about concepts of the DL methods for forecasting electricity loads in the short-term period, especially to a potential researcher in quest of solving similar problems