Load-Sharing Policies in Parallel Simulation of Agent-Based Demographic Models

Execution parallelism in agent-Based Simulation (ABS) allows to deal with complex/large-scale models. This raises the need for runtime environments able to fully exploit hardware parallelism, while jointly offering ABS-suited programming abstractions. In this paper, we target last-generation Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES) platforms for multicore systems. We discuss a programming model to support both implicit (in-place access) and explicit (message passing) interactions across concurrent Logical Processes (LPs). We discuss different load-sharing policies combining event rate and implicit/explicit LPs’ interactions. We present a performance study conducted on a synthetic test case, representative of a class of agent-based models

Programming agent-based demographic models with cross-state and message-exchange dependencies: A study with speculative PDES and automatic load-sharing

Agent-based modeling and simulation is a versatile and promising methodology to capture complex interactions among entities and their surrounding environment. A great advantage is its ability to model phenomena at a macro scale by exploiting simpler descriptions at a micro level. It has been proven effective in many fields, and it is rapidly becoming a de-facto standard in the study of population dynamics. In this article we study programmability and performance aspects of the last-generation ROOT-Sim speculative PDES environment for multi/many-core shared-memory architectures. ROOT-Sim transparently offers a programming model where interactions can be based on both explicit message passing and in-place state accesses. We introduce programming guidelines for systematic exploitation of these facilities in agent-based simulations, and we study the effects on performance of an innovative load-sharing policy targeting these types of dependencies. An experimental assessment with synthetic and real-world applications is provided, to assess the validity of our proposal

Towards efficient large scale epidemiological simulations in EpiGraph

The work we present in this paper focuses on understanding the propagation of flu-like infectious outbreaks between geographically distant regions due to the movement of people outside their base location. Our approach incorporates geographic location and a transportation model into our existing region-based, closed-world EpiGraph simulator to model a more realistic movement of the virus between different geographic areas. This paper describes the MPI-based implementation of this simulator, including several optimization techniques such as a novel approach for mapping processes onto available processing elements based on the temporal distribution of process loads. We present an extensive evaluation of EpiGraph in terms of its ability to simulate large-scale scenarios, as well as from a performance perspective.We would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by David del Río Astorga and Alberto Martín Cajal. This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science TIN2010-16497, 2010.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

The epidemiological consequences of optimisation of the individual host immune response

We present a simple unscaled, quantitative framework that addresses the optimum use of resources throughout a host's lifetime based on continuous exposure to parasites (rather than evolutionary, genetically explicit trade-offs). The principal assumptions are that a host's investment of resources in growth increases its survival and reproduction, and that increasing parasite burden reduces survival. The host reproductive value is maximised for a given combination of rates of parasite exposure, host resource acquisition and pathogenicity, which results in an optimum parasite burden (for the host). Generally, results indicate that the optimum resource allocation is to tolerate some parasite infection. The lower the resource acquisition, the lower the proportion of resources that should be devoted to immunity, i.e. the higher the optimum parasite burden. Increases in pathogenicity result in reduced optimum parasite burdens, whereas increases in exposure result in increasing optimum parasite burdens. Simultaneous variation in resource acquisition, pathogenicity and exposure within a community of hosts results in overdispersed parasite burdens, with the degree of heterogeneity decreasing as mean burden increases. The relationships between host condition and parasite burden are complicated, and could potentially confound data analysis. Finally, the value of this approach for explaining epidemiological patterns, immunological processes and the possibilities for further work are discussed

Network Partitioning in Distributed Agent-Based Models

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are an emerging simulation paradigm for modeling complex systems, comprised of autonomous, possibly heterogeneous, interacting agents. The utility of ABMs lies in their ability to represent such complex systems as self-organizing networks of agents. Modeling and understanding the behavior of complex systems usually occurs at large and representative scales, and often obtaining and visualizing of simulation results in real-time is critical. The real-time requirement necessitates the use of in-memory computing, as it is difficult and challenging to handle the latency and unpredictability of disk accesses. Combining this observation with the scale requirement emphasizes the need to use parallel and distributed computing platforms, such as MPI-enabled CPU clusters. Consequently, the agent population must be partitioned across different CPUs in a cluster. Further, the typically high volume of interactions among agents can quickly become a significant bottleneck for real-time or large-scale simulations. The problem is exacerbated if the underlying ABM network is dynamic and the inter-process communication evolves over the course of the simulation. Therefore, it is critical to develop topology-aware partitioning mechanisms to support such large simulations. In this dissertation, we demonstrate that distributed agent-based model simulations benefit from the use of graph partitioning algorithms that involve a local, neighborhood-based perspective. Such methods do not rely on global accesses to the network and thus are more scalable. In addition, we propose two partitioning schemes that consider the bottom-up individual-centric nature of agent-based modeling. The First technique utilizes label-propagation community detection to partition the dynamic agent network of an ABM. We propose a latency-hiding, seamless integration of community detection in the dynamics of a distributed ABM. To achieve this integration, we exploit the similarity in the process flow patterns of a label-propagation community-detection algorithm and self-organizing ABMs. In the second partitioning scheme, we apply a combination of the Guided Local Search (GLS) and Fast Local Search (FLS) metaheuristics in the context of graph partitioning. The main driving principle of GLS is the dynamic modi?cation of the objective function to escape local optima. The algorithm augments the objective of a local search, thereby transforming the landscape structure and escaping a local optimum. FLS is a local search heuristic algorithm that is aimed at reducing the search space of the main search algorithm. It breaks down the space into sub-neighborhoods such that inactive sub-neighborhoods are removed from the search process. The combination of GLS and FLS allowed us to design a graph partitioning algorithm that is both scalable and sensitive to the inherent modularity of real-world networks

Part 3: Systemic risk in ecology and engineering

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. ; This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. ; The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.Financial risk management ; Financial markets ; Financial stability ; Financial crises

Load-sharing policies in parallel simulation of agent-based demographic models

Execution parallelism in agent-Based Simulation (ABS) allows to deal with complex/large-scale models. This raises the need for runtime environments able to fully exploit hardware parallelism, while jointly offering ABS-suited programming abstractions. In this paper, we target last-generation Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES) platforms for multicore systems. We discuss a programming model to support both implicit (in-place access) and explicit (message passing) interactions across concurrent Logical Processes (LPs). We discuss different load-sharing policies combining event rate and implicit/explicit LPs’ interactions. We present a performance study conducted on a synthetic test case, representative of a class of agent-based models.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Modelling DoS Attacks & Interoperability in the Smart Grid

Smart grids perform the crucial role of delivering electricity to millions of people and driving today’s industries. However, the integration of physical operational technology (OT) with IT systems introduces many security challenges. Denial-of-Service (DoS) is a well-known IT attack with a large potential for damage within the smart grid. Whilst DoS is relatively well-understood in IT networks, the unique characteristics and requirements of smart grids bring up new challenges. In this paper, we examine this relationship and propose the OT impact chain to capture possible sequences of events resulting from an IT-side DoS attack. We then apply epidemic principles to explore the same dynamics using the proposed S-A-C model