Harnessing Big Data for the Sharing Economy in Smart Cities

Motivated by the imbalance between demand (i.e., passenger requests) and supply (i.e., available vehicles) in the ride-hailing market and severe traffic congestion faced by modern cities, this dissertation aims to improve the efficiency of the sharing economy by building an agent-based methodological framework for optimal decision-making of distributed agents (e.g., autonomous shared vehicles), including passenger-seeking and route choice. Furthermore, noticing that city planners can impact the behavior of agents via some operational measures such as congestion pricing and signal control, this dissertation investigates the overall bilevel problem that involves the decision-making process of both distributed agents (i.e., the lower level) and central city planners (i.e., the upper level). First of all, for the task of passenger-seeking, this dissertation proposes a model-based Markov decision process (MDP) approach to incorporate distinct features of e-hailing drivers. The modified MDP approach is found to outperform the baseline (i.e., the local hotspot strategy) in terms of both the rate of return and the utilization rate. Although the modified MDP approach is set up in the single-agent setting, we extend its applicability to multi-agent scenarios by a dynamic adjustment strategy of the order matching probability which is able to partially capture the competition among agents. Furthermore, noticing that the reward function is commonly assumed as some prior knowledge, this dissertation unveils the underlying reward function of the overall e-hailing driver population (i.e., 44,000 Didi drivers in Beijing) through an inverse reinforcement learning method, which paves the way for future research on discovering the underlying reward mechanism in a complex and dynamic ride-hailing market. To better incorporate the competition among agents, this dissertation develops a model-free mean-field multi-agent actor-critic algorithm for multi-driver passenger-seeking. A bilevel optimization model is then formulated with the upper level as a reward design mechanism and the lower level as a multi-agent system. We use the developed mean field multi-agent actor-critic algorithm to solve for the optimal passenger-seeking policies of distributed agents in the lower level and Bayesian optimization to solve for the optimal control of upper-level city planners. The bilevel optimization model is applied to a real-world large-scale multi-class taxi driver repositioning task with congestion pricing as the upper-level control. It is disclosed that the derived optimal toll charge can efficiently improve the objective of city planners. With agents knowingwhere to go (i.e., passenger-seeking), this dissertation then applies the bilevel optimization model to the research question of how to get there (i.e., route choice). Different from the task of passenger-seeking where the action space is always fixed-dimensional, the problem of variable action set emerges in the task of route choice. Therefore, a flow-dependent deep Q-learning algorithm is proposed to efficiently derive the optimal policies for multi-commodity multi-class agents. We demonstrate the effect of two countermeasures, namely tolling and signal control, on the behavior of travelers and show that the systematic objective of city planners can be optimized by a proper control

Regulation versus Taxation: Efficiency of Zoning and Tax Instruments as Anti-Congestion Policies

We examine the working mechanisms and efficiencies of zoning (regulation of floor area ratios and land-use types) and fiscal instruments (tolls, property taxes, and income transfer), and extend the instrument choice theory to include the congestion of road and nonroad infrastructure. We show that in the spatial model with heterogeneous households the standard first-best instruments do not work because they trigger distortion of spatial allocations. In addition, because of the household heterogeneity and real estate market distortions, zoning could be less efficient than, as efficient as, or more efficient than pricing instruments. However, when the zoning enacted deviates from the optimum, zoning not only becomes inferior to congestion charges but is also likely to reduce welfare. In addition, we provide a global platform that extends the instrument choice theory of pollution control to include various types of externalities and a wide range of discrete policy deviations for any reasons beyond cost–benefit uncertainties

Self-Evaluation Applied Mathematics 2003-2008 University of Twente

This report contains the self-study for the research assessment of the Department of Applied Mathematics (AM) of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS) at the University of Twente (UT). The report provides the information for the Research Assessment Committee for Applied Mathematics, dealing with mathematical sciences at the three universities of technology in the Netherlands. It describes the state of affairs pertaining to the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008

Multi-level Safety Performance Functions For High Speed Facilities

High speed facilities are considered the backbone of any successful transportation system; Interstates, freeways, and expressways carry the majority of daily trips on the transportation network. Although these types of roads are relatively considered the safest among other types of roads, they still experience many crashes, many of which are severe, which not only affect human lives but also can have tremendous economical and social impacts. These facts signify the necessity of enhancing the safety of these high speed facilities to ensure better and efficient operation. Safety problems could be assessed through several approaches that can help in mitigating the crash risk on long and short term basis. Therefore, the main focus of the research in this dissertation is to provide a framework of risk assessment to promote safety and enhance mobility on freeways and expressways. Multi-level Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) were developed at the aggregate level using historical crash data and the corresponding exposure and risk factors to identify and rank sites with promise (hot-spots). Additionally, SPFs were developed at the disaggregate level utilizing real-time weather data collected from meteorological stations located at the freeway section as well as traffic flow parameters collected from different detection systems such as Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) and Remote Traffic Microwave Sensors (RTMS). These disaggregate SPFs can identify real-time risks due to turbulent traffic conditions and their interactions with other risk factors. In this study, two main datasets were obtained from two different regions. Those datasets comprise historical crash data, roadway geometrical characteristics, aggregate weather and traffic parameters as well as real-time weather and traffic data. iii At the aggregate level, Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial and random effects were compared to Poisson models to examine the safety effects of roadway geometrics on crash occurrence along freeway sections that feature mountainous terrain and adverse weather. At the disaggregate level; a main framework of a proactive safety management system using traffic data collected from AVI and RTMS, real-time weather and geometrical characteristics was provided. Different statistical techniques were implemented. These techniques ranged from classical frequentist classification approaches to explain the relationship between an event (crash) occurring at a given time and a set of risk factors in real time to other more advanced models. Bayesian statistics with updating approach to update beliefs about the behavior of the parameter with prior knowledge in order to achieve more reliable estimation was implemented. Also a relatively recent and promising Machine Learning technique (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) was utilized to calibrate several models utilizing different datasets collected from mixed detection systems as well as real-time meteorological stations. The results from this study suggest that both levels of analyses are important, the aggregate level helps in providing good understanding of different safety problems, and developing policies and countermeasures to reduce the number of crashes in total. At the disaggregate level, real-time safety functions help toward more proactive traffic management system that will not only enhance the performance of the high speed facilities and the whole traffic network but also provide safer mobility for people and goods. In general, the proposed multi-level analyses are useful in providing roadway authorities with detailed information on where countermeasures must be implemented and when resources should be devoted. The study also proves that traffic data collected from different detection systems could be a useful asset that should be utilized iv appropriately not only to alleviate traffic congestion but also to mitigate increased safety risks. The overall proposed framework can maximize the benefit of the existing archived data for freeway authorities as well as for road users

Heterogeneous LTE/ Wi-Fi architecture for intelligent transportation systems

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) make use of advanced technologies to enhance road safety and improve traffic efficiency. It is anticipated that ITS will play a vital future role in improving traffic efficiency, safety, comfort and emissions. In order to assist the passengers to travel safely, efficiently and conveniently, several application requirements have to be met simultaneously. In addition to the delivery of regular traffic and safety information, vehicular networks have been recently required to support infotainment services. Previous vehicular network designs and architectures do not satisfy this increasing traffic demand as they are setup for either voice or data traffic, which is not suitable for the transfer of vehicular traffic. This new requirement is one of the key drivers behind the need for new mobile wireless broadband architectures and technologies. For this purpose, this thesis proposes and investigates a heterogeneous IEEE 802.11 and LTE vehicular system that supports both infotainment and ITS traffic control data. IEEE 802.11g is used for V2V communications and as an on-board access network while, LTE is used for V2I communications. A performance simulation-based study is conducted to validate the feasibility of the proposed system in an urban vehicular environment. The system performance is evaluated in terms of data loss, data rate, delay and jitter. Several simulation scenarios are performed and evaluated. In the V2I-only scenario, the delay, jitter and data drops for both ITS and video traffic are within the acceptable limits, as defined by vehicular application requirements. Although a tendency of increase in video packet drops during handover from one eNodeB to another is observed yet, the attainable data loss rate is still below the defined benchmarks. In the integrated V2V-V2I scenario, data loss in uplink ITS traffic was initially observed so, Burst communication technique is applied to prevent packet losses in the critical uplink ITS traffic. A quantitative analysis is performed to determine the number of packets per burst, the inter-packet and inter-burst intervals. It is found that a substantial improvement is achieved using a two-packet Burst, where no packets are lost in the uplink direction. The delay, jitter and data drops for both uplink and downlink ITS traffic, and video traffic are below the benchmarks of vehicular applications. Thus, the results indicate that the proposed heterogeneous system offers acceptable performance that meets the requirements of the different vehicular applications. All simulations are conducted on OPNET Network Modeler and results are subjected to a 95% confidence analysis

Studies on Complex and Connected Vehicle Traffic Networks

Transportation networks such as road networks are well-known for their complexity. Its users make choices of route, which mode to take, etc.; these users then interact with each other, producing emergent dynamics such as traffic jams on roads. These localized multi-user emergent physical phenomena then interact with similar group movements occurring in other locations, creating more complex network-scale dynamics. These patterns of hierarchical levels of organization and emergent phenomena at each level are typical of so-called "complex systems." In addition, the increasing adoption of information-technology systems like connected and autonomous vehicles is creating new challenges in modeling transportation networks, as new emergent behaviors become possible, but also provide new sources of information and possibilities for traffic operations management.The complexity of transportation networks precludes the use of a single all-encompassing theory for all situations at all scales. This dissertation describes several analyses into understanding and controlling emergent dynamics on road traffic networks. It is broken into three parts. The first part proposes models for several new phenomena at the "macroscopic," group-of-vehicles to group-of-vehicles, level. In particular, we solve a problem of modeling arbitrary road junctions with populations of behaviorally-heterogenous vehicles, where the vehicle flows are modelled by a continuum-approximation, partial-differential-equation-based model. We also present several new modeling constructions for a particular complex road network topology: freeways with managed lanes. It has been noted that these managed lane-freeway networks induce new emergent behaviors that are not present in traditional freeways; we propose modeling techniques for several of them, and fit them into traditional modeling paradigms.The second part presents several contributions for estimating the state of the macro-scale traffic dynamics on the road network, based on the micro-scale data of global navigational satellite system readings of the speed and position of individual vehicles. These contributions are extensions of the particle filtering mathematical framework. First, we demonstrate the use of a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter in assimilating vehicle-local speed measurements to better estimate the macroscopic density state of a freeway. Then, we propose new "hypothesis-testing" particle filters that can be used to reject outlier or otherwise malign measurements in a principled statistical manner.The third and final part presents two items on applying deep neural networks to transportation system problems at smaller scales. Both items make use of neural attention, which is a neural network design technique that allows for the integration of structural domain knowledge. First, we demonstrate the applicability of this technique towards estimating aggregate traffic states at the lane level, and present evidence that designing the neural network architecture to encode different types of lane-to-lane relationships (e.g., upstream lane vs neighboring lane) greatly benefits statistical learning. Then, we apply similar methods to an autonomous vehicle coordination problem in a deep reinforcement learning framework, and show that an attention-based neural network that allows each vehicle to attend to the other vehicles enables superior learning compared to a naive, non-attention-based architecture, and also allows principled generalization between varying numbers of vehicles

Decision Rule Approximations for Dynamic Optimization under Uncertainty

Dynamic decision problems affected by uncertain data are notoriously hard to solve due to the presence of adaptive decision variables which must be modeled as functions or decision rules of some (or all) of the uncertain parameters. All exact solution techniques suffer from the curse of dimensionality while most solution schemes assume that the decision-maker cannot influence the sequence in which the uncertain parameters are revealed. The main objective of this thesis is to devise tractable approximation schemes for dynamic decision-making under uncertainty. For this purpose, we develop new decision rule approximations whereby the adaptive decisions are approximated by finite linear combinations of prescribed basis functions. In the first part of this thesis, we develop a tractable unifying framework for solving convex multi-stage robust optimization problems with general nonlinear dependence on the uncertain parameters. This is achieved by combining decision rule and constraint sampling approximations. The synthesis of these two methodologies provides us with a versatile data-driven framework, which circumvents the need for estimating the distribution of the uncertain parameters and offers almost complete freedom in the choice of basis functions. We obtain a-priori probabilistic guarantees on the feasibility properties of the optimal decision rule and demonstrate asymptotic consistency of the approximation. We then investigate the problem of hedging and pricing path-dependent electricity derivatives such as swing options, which play a crucial risk management role in today’s deregulated energy markets. Most of the literature on the topic assumes that a swing option can be assigned a unique fair price. This assumption nevertheless fails to hold in real-world energy markets, where the option admits a whole interval of prices consistent with those of traded instruments. We formulate two large-scale robust optimization problems whose optimal values yield the endpoints of this interval. We analyze and exploit the structure of the optimal decision rule to formulate approximate problems that can be solved efficiently with the decision rule approach discussed in the first part of the thesis. Most of the literature on stochastic and robust optimization assumes that the sequence in which the uncertain parameters unfold is independent of the decision-maker’s actions. Nevertheless, in numerous real-world decision problems, the time of information discovery can be influenced by the decision-maker. In the last part of this thesis, we propose a decision rule-based approximation scheme for multi-stage problems with decision-dependent information discovery. We assess our approach on a problem of infrastructure and production planning in offshore oil fields

The dynamic user equilibrium on a transport network: mathematical properties and economic applications

This thesis is focused on dynamic user equilibrium models and their applications to traffic assignment. It aims at providing a mathematically rigorous and general formulation for the dynamic user equilibrium. Particular attention is paid to the representation of transport demand and more specifically to trip scheduling and users with heterogeneous preferences. This is achieved by expressing the dynamic user equilibrium as a Nash game with a continuum of players. This allows for a precise, concise and microeconomically consistent description. This thesis also deals with computational techniques. We solve analytically equilibrium on small networks to get a general intuition of the complex linkage between the demand and supply of transport in dynamic frameworks. The intuition acquired from the resolution is used to elaborate efficient numerical solving methods that can be applied to large size, real life, transport networks. Along the thesis several economic applications are proposed. All of them are dealing with the assessment of congestion pricing policies where are likely to reschedule their trips. In particular, a pricing scheme designed to ease congestion during holiday departure periods is tested. In this scheme a toll varying within the day and from day to day is set on the french motorway network. This form to toll is especially appealing as it enables the operator to influence the departure day as well as the departure time. Indeed it is shown that even moderate variations of the toll with time might have strong impacts on an highly congested interurban network.Cette thèse porte sur les modèles d'équilibres dynamiques sur un réseau de transport et leurs applications à l'affectation de trafic. Elle tente d'en propose une formulation à la fois générale et mathématiquement rigoureuse. Une attention particulière est accordée à la représentation de la demande de transport. Plus spécifiquement, la modélisation de l'hétérogénéité dans les préférences des usagers d'un réseau de transport, ainsi que des stratégies de choix d'horaire dans les déplacements, occupe une place importante dans notre approche. Une caractéristique de ce travail est son fort recours au formalisme mathématique; cela nous permet d'obtenir une formulation concise et micro-économiquement cohérente des réseaux de transport et de la demande de transport dans un contexte dynamique. Cette thèse traite aussi de méthodes de résolution en lien avec les modèles d'équilibres dynamiques. Nous établissons analytiquement des équilibres sur des réseaux de petites tailles afin d'améliorer la connaissance qualitative de l'interaction entre offre et demande dans ce contexte. L'intuition retirée de ces exercices nous permet de concevoir des méthodes numériques de calculs qui peuvent être appliquées à des réseaux de transport de grande taille. Tout au long de la thèse plusieurs applications économiques de ces travaux sont explorées. Toutes traitent des politiques de tarification de la congestion et de leurs évaluation, notamment lorsque les automobilistes sont susceptibles d'ajuster leurs horaires de départ. En particulier une politique tarifaire conçue pour limiter la congestion lors des grands départs de vacances est testée. Elle consiste à mettre en place un péage sur le réseau autoroutier variant selon l'heure de la journée mais aussi de jour en jour. Ce type de péage est particulièrement intéressant pour les exploitants car il leur permet d'influencer à la fois sur l'heure et le jour de départ des vacanciers. Les méthodes développées dans cette thèse permettent d'établir que les gains en termes de réduction de la congestion sont substantiels

VEHICULAR TRAFFIC MODELLING, DATA ASSIMILATION, ESTIMATION AND SHORT TERM TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION

This dissertation deals with the problem of short term travel time prediction. Traffic dynamics models and traffic measurements are in particular the tools in approaching this problem. Effectively, a data-driven traffic modeling approach is adopted. Assimilating key traffic variables (flow, density, and speed) under standard continuum traffic flow models is fairly straight-forward. In current practice, travel time (space integral of pace or inverse of speed) is obtained through trajectory construction methods. However, the inverse problem of estimating speeds based on travel times is generally under-determined. In this dissertation, appropriate dynamic model and solution algorithms are proposed to jointly estimate speeds and travel times. This model essentially paves the way to assimilate travel time data with other traffic measurements. The proposed travel time prediction framework takes into account the fact that in reality neither traffic models nor measurements are flawless. Therefore, optimal state estimation methods to solve the resulting state-space model in real-time are proposed. Alternative optimality criterion such as minimization of the variance of estimate errors and minimization of the maximum (minmax) estimate errors are considered. Practical considerations such as occurrence of missing data, delayed (out of order) arrival of measurements and their impact on solution quality are addressed. Proposed models and algorithms are tested on datasets provided under NGSIM project