Making Good on LSTMs' Unfulfilled Promise

LSTMs promise much to financial time-series analysis, temporal and cross-sectional inference, but we find that they do not deliver in a real-world financial management task. We examine an alternative called Continual Learning (CL), a memory-augmented approach, which can provide transparent explanations, i.e. which memory did what and when. This work has implications for many financial applications including credit, time-varying fairness in decision making and more. We make three important new observations. Firstly, as well as being more explainable, time-series CL approaches outperform LSTMs as well as a simple sliding window learner using feed-forward neural networks (FFNN). Secondly, we show that CL based on a sliding window learner (FFNN) is more effective than CL based on a sequential learner (LSTM). Thirdly, we examine how real-world, time-series noise impacts several similarity approaches used in CL memory addressing. We provide these insights using an approach called Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) tested on a complex real-world problem, emerging market equities investment decision making. CLA provides a test-bed as it can be based on different types of time-series learners, allowing testing of LSTM and FFNN learners side by side. CLA is also used to test several distance approaches used in a memory recall-gate: Euclidean distance (ED), dynamic time warping (DTW), auto-encoders (AE) and a novel hybrid approach, warp-AE. We find that ED under-performs DTW and AE but warp-AE shows the best overall performance in a real-world financial task

Editorial: Approaches to research in the education and learning of adults

With distinctively different traditions of and influences to the academic study of the education and learning of adults in the field over the years, generalizations in narrations of approaches to research or change across Europe are bound to be reductive and flawed. The direction of approaches to research and scholarly activity in Europe have emerged in distinctive ways in different geographical locations. Events and trajectories could perhaps best be traced and characterized for the field through a focus on local histories; pursing the question of the intellectual resources emerging and drawn on at different times and places. Questions for ‘the field’ are then perhaps those over the approaches to research and scholarship that emerge to dominate in differing locations; approaches marginalized in this, the local histories and contestations and struggles for recognition entailed, the limitations and productivities in relation to specific purposes, agendas and concerns and the affordances that emerge with new local developments. This also raises questions about the ability of any ‘field’ to inquire into its direction or engage critically in this. In this issue we have wanted to create space for those in the field to highlight their own trajectories and agendas in research and scholarship and scholarly reflections and deliberation with regard to these sorts of questions. In this Editorial we will introduce five articles that draw on theory and traditions from distinct locations. (DIPF/Orig.

Editorial: Approaches to research in the education and learning of adults

With distinctively different traditions of and influences to the academic study of the education and learning of adults in the field over the years, generalizations in narrations of approaches to research or change across Europe are bound to be reductive and flawed. The direction of approaches to research and scholarly activity in Europe have emerged in distinctive ways in different geographical locations. Events and trajectories could perhaps best be traced and characterized for the field through a focus on local histories; pursing the question of the intellectual resources emerging and drawn on at different times and places. Questions for ‘the field’ are then perhaps those over the approaches to research and scholarship that emerge to dominate in differing locations; approaches marginalized in this, the local histories and contestations and struggles for recognition entailed, the limitations and productivities in relation to specific purposes, agendas and concerns and the affordances that emerge with new local developments. This also raises questions about the ability of any ‘field’ to inquire into its direction or engage critically in this. In this issue we have wanted to create space for those in the field to highlight their own trajectories and agendas in research and scholarship and scholarly reflections and deliberation with regard to these sorts of questions. In this Editorial we will introduce five articles that draw on theory and traditions from distinct locations. (DIPF/Orig.