47,179 research outputs found
Bayesian Fused Lasso regression for dynamic binary networks
We propose a multinomial logistic regression model for link prediction in a
time series of directed binary networks. To account for the dynamic nature of
the data we employ a dynamic model for the model parameters that is strongly
connected with the fused lasso penalty. In addition to promoting sparseness,
this prior allows us to explore the presence of change points in the structure
of the network. We introduce fast computational algorithms for estimation and
prediction using both optimization and Bayesian approaches. The performance of
the model is illustrated using simulated data and data from a financial trading
network in the NYMEX natural gas futures market. Supplementary material
containing the trading network data set and code to implement the algorithms is
available online
Probabilistic Models of Motor Production
N. Bernstein defined the ability of the central neural system (CNS) to control many degrees of freedom of a physical body with all its redundancy and flexibility as the main problem in motor control. He pointed at that man-made mechanisms usually have one, sometimes two degrees of freedom (DOF); when the number of DOF increases further, it becomes prohibitively hard to control them. The brain, however, seems to perform such control effortlessly. He suggested the way the brain might deal with it: when a motor skill is being acquired, the brain artificially limits the degrees of freedoms, leaving only one or two. As the skill level increases, the brain gradually "frees" the previously fixed DOF, applying control when needed and in directions which have to be corrected, eventually arriving to the control scheme where all the DOF are "free". This approach of reducing the dimensionality of motor control remains relevant even today.
One the possibles solutions of the Bernstetin's problem is the hypothesis of motor primitives (MPs) - small building blocks that constitute complex movements and facilitite motor learnirng and task completion. Just like in the visual system, having a homogenious hierarchical architecture built of similar computational elements may be beneficial.
Studying such a complicated object as brain, it is important to define at which level of details one works and which questions one aims to answer. David Marr suggested three levels of analysis: 1. computational, analysing which problem the system solves; 2. algorithmic, questioning which representation the system uses and which computations it performs; 3. implementational, finding how such computations are performed by neurons in the brain. In this thesis we stay at the first two levels, seeking for the basic representation of motor output.
In this work we present a new model of motor primitives that comprises multiple interacting latent dynamical systems, and give it a full Bayesian treatment. Modelling within the Bayesian framework, in my opinion, must become the new standard in hypothesis testing in neuroscience. Only the Bayesian framework gives us guarantees when dealing with the inevitable plethora of hidden variables and uncertainty.
The special type of coupling of dynamical systems we proposed, based on the Product of Experts, has many natural interpretations in the Bayesian framework. If the dynamical systems run in parallel, it yields Bayesian cue integration. If they are organized hierarchically due to serial coupling, we get hierarchical priors over the dynamics. If one of the dynamical systems represents sensory state, we arrive to the sensory-motor primitives. The compact representation that follows from the variational treatment allows learning of a motor primitives library. Learned separately, combined motion can be represented as a matrix of coupling values.
We performed a set of experiments to compare different models of motor primitives. In a series of 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) experiments participants were discriminating natural and synthesised movements, thus running a graphics Turing test. When available, Bayesian model score predicted the naturalness of the perceived movements. For simple movements, like walking, Bayesian model comparison and psychophysics tests indicate that one dynamical system is sufficient to describe the data. For more complex movements, like walking and waving, motion can be better represented as a set of coupled dynamical systems. We also experimentally confirmed that Bayesian treatment of model learning on motion data is superior to the simple point estimate of latent parameters. Experiments with non-periodic movements show that they do not benefit from more complex latent dynamics, despite having high kinematic complexity.
By having a fully Bayesian models, we could quantitatively disentangle the influence of motion dynamics and pose on the perception of naturalness. We confirmed that rich and correct dynamics is more important than the kinematic representation.
There are numerous further directions of research. In the models we devised, for multiple parts, even though the latent dynamics was factorized on a set of interacting systems, the kinematic parts were completely independent. Thus, interaction between the kinematic parts could be mediated only by the latent dynamics interactions. A more flexible model would allow a dense interaction on the kinematic level too.
Another important problem relates to the representation of time in Markov chains. Discrete time Markov chains form an approximation to continuous dynamics. As time step is assumed to be fixed, we face with the problem of time step selection. Time is also not a explicit parameter in Markov chains. This also prohibits explicit optimization of time as parameter and reasoning (inference) about it. For example, in optimal control boundary conditions are usually set at exact time points, which is not an ecological scenario, where time is usually a parameter of optimization. Making time an explicit parameter in dynamics may alleviate this
Deep Predictive Models for Collision Risk Assessment in Autonomous Driving
In this paper, we investigate a predictive approach for collision risk
assessment in autonomous and assisted driving. A deep predictive model is
trained to anticipate imminent accidents from traditional video streams. In
particular, the model learns to identify cues in RGB images that are predictive
of hazardous upcoming situations. In contrast to previous work, our approach
incorporates (a) temporal information during decision making, (b) multi-modal
information about the environment, as well as the proprioceptive state and
steering actions of the controlled vehicle, and (c) information about the
uncertainty inherent to the task. To this end, we discuss Deep Predictive
Models and present an implementation using a Bayesian Convolutional LSTM.
Experiments in a simple simulation environment show that the approach can learn
to predict impending accidents with reasonable accuracy, especially when
multiple cameras are used as input sources.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure
Bayesian topology identification of linear dynamic networks
In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the
interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a
Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection
method for identifying the connectivity of networks of transfer functions,
without the need to estimate the dynamics. The algorithm employs a Bayesian
measure and a forward-backward search algorithm. To obtain the Bayesian
measure, the impulse responses of network modules are modeled as Gaussian
processes and the hyperparameters are estimated by marginal likelihood
maximization using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical results
demonstrate the effectiveness of this method
Towards knowledge-based gene expression data mining
The field of gene expression data analysis has grown in the past few years from being purely data-centric to integrative, aiming at complementing microarray analysis with data and knowledge from diverse available sources. In this review, we report on the plethora of gene expression data mining techniques and focus on their evolution toward knowledge-based data analysis approaches. In particular, we discuss recent developments in gene expression-based analysis methods used in association and classification studies, phenotyping and reverse engineering of gene networks
An Overview on Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Optical Networks
Today's telecommunication networks have become sources of enormous amounts of
widely heterogeneous data. This information can be retrieved from network
traffic traces, network alarms, signal quality indicators, users' behavioral
data, etc. Advanced mathematical tools are required to extract meaningful
information from these data and take decisions pertaining to the proper
functioning of the networks from the network-generated data. Among these
mathematical tools, Machine Learning (ML) is regarded as one of the most
promising methodological approaches to perform network-data analysis and enable
automated network self-configuration and fault management. The adoption of ML
techniques in the field of optical communication networks is motivated by the
unprecedented growth of network complexity faced by optical networks in the
last few years. Such complexity increase is due to the introduction of a huge
number of adjustable and interdependent system parameters (e.g., routing
configurations, modulation format, symbol rate, coding schemes, etc.) that are
enabled by the usage of coherent transmission/reception technologies, advanced
digital signal processing and compensation of nonlinear effects in optical
fiber propagation. In this paper we provide an overview of the application of
ML to optical communications and networking. We classify and survey relevant
literature dealing with the topic, and we also provide an introductory tutorial
on ML for researchers and practitioners interested in this field. Although a
good number of research papers have recently appeared, the application of ML to
optical networks is still in its infancy: to stimulate further work in this
area, we conclude the paper proposing new possible research directions
- …