Higher education reform: getting the incentives right

This study is a joint effort by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and the Center for Higher Education Policy Studies. It analyses a number of `best practices¿ where the design of financial incentives working on the system level of higher education is concerned. In Chapter 1, an overview of some of the characteristics of the Dutch higher education sector is presented. Chapter 2 is a refresher on the economics of higher education. Chapter 3 is about the Australian Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS). Chapter 4 is about tuition fees and admission policies in US universities. Chapter 5 looks at the funding of Danish universities through the so-called taximeter-model, that links funding to student performance. Chapter 6 deals with research funding in the UK university system, where research assessments exercises underlie the funding decisions. In Chapter 7 we study the impact of university-industry ties on academic research by examining the US policies on increasing knowledge transfer between universities and the private sector. Finally, Chapter 8 presents food for thought for Dutch policymakers: what lessons can be learned from our international comparison

Hypermedia-based discovery for source selection using low-cost linked data interfaces

Evaluating federated Linked Data queries requires consulting multiple sources on the Web. Before a client can execute queries, it must discover data sources, and determine which ones are relevant. Federated query execution research focuses on the actual execution, while data source discovery is often marginally discussed-even though it has a strong impact on selecting sources that contribute to the query results. Therefore, the authors introduce a discovery approach for Linked Data interfaces based on hypermedia links and controls, and apply it to federated query execution with Triple Pattern Fragments. In addition, the authors identify quantitative metrics to evaluate this discovery approach. This article describes generic evaluation measures and results for their concrete approach. With low-cost data summaries as seed, interfaces to eight large real-world datasets can discover each other within 7 minutes. Hypermedia-based client-side querying shows a promising gain of up to 50% in execution time, but demands algorithms that visit a higher number of interfaces to improve result completeness

Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging

This paper considers the problem of forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging. Theoretical justifications for averaging across models, as opposed to selecting a single model, are given. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms which simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We discuss how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest marginal likelihood (or highest value of an information criterion) in an efficient manner. We apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time series. For both GDP and inflation, we find that the models which contain factors do out-forecast an AR(p), but only by a relatively small amount and only at short horizons. We attribute these findings to the presence of structural instability and the fact that lags of dependent variable seem to contain most of the information relevant for forecasting. Relative to the small forecasting gains provided by including factors, the gains provided by using Bayesian model averaging over forecasting methods based on a single model are appreciable

Updating, Upgrading, Refining, Calibration and Implementation of Trade-Off Analysis Methodology Developed for INDOT

As part of the ongoing evolution towards integrated highway asset management, the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), through SPR studies in 2004 and 2010, sponsored research that developed an overall framework for asset management. This was intended to foster decision support for alternative investments across the program areas on the basis of a broad range of performance measures and against the background of the various alternative actions or spending amounts that could be applied to the several different asset types in the different program areas. The 2010 study also developed theoretical constructs for scaling and amalgamating the different performance measures, and for analyzing the different kinds of trade-offs. The research products from the present study include this technical report which shows how theoretical underpinnings of the methodology developed for INDOT in 2010 have been updated, upgraded, and refined. The report also includes a case study that shows how the trade-off analysis framework has been calibrated using available data. Supplemental to the report is Trade-IN Version 1.0, a set of flexible and easy-to-use spreadsheets that implement the tradeoff framework. With this framework and using data at the current time or in the future, INDOT’s asset managers are placed in a better position to quantify and comprehend the relationships between budget levels and system-wide performance, the relationships between different pairs of conflicting or non-conflicting performance measures under a given budget limit, and the consequences, in terms of system-wide performance, of funding shifts across the management systems or program areas

An economic evaluation of a crop insurance programme for small-scale commercial farmers in South Africa

Hail insurance is provided by the private sector in South Africa but crop insurance (drought insurance) programmes, after a promising start, failed to attract customers. A crop insurance programme (drought) for small-scale commercial farmers, who are not yet paying tax, has been recommended to government. The purpose in this research is to study the economic viability of such a programme drawing on the US experience. The US programme is well developed but heavily subsidised. During 1998 US growers paid $900 million in premiums while during 1995- 98 the US government spent$1.2 billion per year on subsidies. An area insurance plan (farmers are insured as a group) is shown to be more appropriate for small farmers growing dryland field crops such as maize because risk is systemic (drought related) while adverse selection, moral hazard etc are overcome. Individual crop insurance will not be viable due to the cost of farm visits (verification of claims) and the non-availability of information. As a large part of the cost to government goes to administration of crop insurance it is recommended that an Income Equalisation Deposit (IED) scheme for small growers receive serious consideration with the government making a contribution as for example in Canada.Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical evidence

This paper is not (or at least not only) about human infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" will refer here to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition which falls within the field of application of the "Transient Shock" (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond et al. (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. (i) It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically. (ii) It predicts that after a steep rising there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which birth is a multi-step process. Thus, for fish there are three states: egg, yolk-sac phase, young adult. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase, and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using high accuracy Swiss statistics which give postnatal death rates from one hour after birth up to the age of 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a great overall reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. This hyperbolic pattern is not specific to humans. It can also be found in small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our ultimate objective is to set up a chain of cases which starts from simple systems and then moves up step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here can be seen as initial landmarks.Comment: 46 pages, 14 figures, 4 table