Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics

International audienceChanges in land cover and land use are among the most pervasive and important sources of recent alterations of the Earth's land surface.This special issue also presents new directions in modelling landscape dynamics. Agent-based models have primarily been used to simulate local land use and land cover changes processes with a focus on decision making (Le 2008; Matthews et al. 2007; Parker et al. 2003; Bousquet and Le Page 2001)

A Multitarget Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on Cellular Automata and Its Application

Based on the analysis of the existing land use change simulation model, combined with macroland use change driving factors and microlocal land use competition, and through the application of Python language integrated technical approaches such as CA, GIS, AHP, and Markov, a multitarget land use change simulation model based on cellular automata(CA) is established. This model was applied to conduct scenario simulation of land use/cover change of the Jinzhou New District, based on 1:10000 map scale land use, planning, topography, statistics, and other data collected in the year of 1988, 2003, and 2012. The simulation results indicate the following: (1) this model can simulate the mutual transformation of multiple land use types in a relatively satisfactory way; it takes land use system as a whole and simultaneously takes the land use demand in the macrolevel and the land use suitability in the local scale into account; and (2) the simulation accuracy of the model reaches 72%, presenting higher creditability. The model is capable of providing auxiliary decision-making support for coastal regions with the analysis of the land use change driving mechanism, prediction of land use change tendencies, and establishment of land resource sustainable utilization policies

Examining the satellite-detected urban land use spatial patterns using multidimensional fractal dimension indices

2013-2014 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalVersion of RecordPublishe

Predicting the effect of the Common Agricultural Policy post-2020 using an agent-based model based on PMP methodology.

The objective of this study is to perform an ex-ante assessment of the potential impacts of agro-environmental measures included in the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), by estimating farmers' responsiveness in adopting organic agricultural practices and an eco-scheme that incentivises extensive forage systems. This research is conducted by mean of an Agent-Based Model (ABM), based on Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), implemented in GAMS. The ABM facilitate the simulation of interaction among farmers, allowing for an analysis of farm heterogeneity. The PMP methodology add a non-rational dimention to the farmers’ economic drivers. The model is calibrated using 2019 Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data specific to the Emilia Romagna region in Italy. Our findings reveal significant impacts on land use, with a notable decrease in cereal cultivation in favour of protein and fodder crops. Moreover, structural shifts are observed, notably a decrease in the number of small-scale farms. We also assess environmental and economic implications, observing a modest reduction in CO2 equivalent emissions per hectare, an increase in water demand, and an overall economic stability among farms, as indicated by changes in gross margin per hectare

Avaliação dos impactes socio-económicos dos planos regionais para a região da Ria de Aveiro

Mestrado em Engenharia do AmbienteA urbanização das zonas costeiras sofreu um grande aumento nas últimas décadas, causando uma grande pressão sobre o ambiente e os recursos. O aumento da população levou ao aumento da procura de habitações o que, por sua vez, resultou numa urbanização pouco planeada e desorganizada – levando à destruição e degradação do meio ambiente. Este tipo de urbanização extensa e dispersa é conhecida como dispersão urbana. No sentido de contradizer os impactes negativos da dispersão urbana nas zonas costeiras, surge a necessidade de pôr em prática um desenvolvimento urbano sustentável. Tal pode ser conseguido através da implementação de legislação e politicas focadas na realização de objetivos sustentáveis. Em Portugal, uma dessas políticas é o Plano Regional de Ordenamento do Território (PROT). Vários modelos de uso do solo têm sido desenvolvidos no sentido de avaliar as mudanças de uso de solo históricas e futuras. No entanto, poucos são os modelos usados para avaliar de que forma os planos de ordenamento de território contribuem para uma urbanização sustentável e os seus impactes sociais, económicos e ambientais. Este estudo tem como principal objetivo a avaliação do Plano Regional de Ordenamento do Território para a região de Aveiro (o PROT-Centro), através do modelo SULD (Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development), com o intuito de perceber até que ponto este plano contribui para a urbanização sustentável da região. Tendo em conta uma perspetiva de desenvolvimento sustentável, os resultados demonstram que, apesar do cenário integrado não ser a pior opção, também não é a melhor. Nesta perspetiva, os resultados do cenário ambiental demonstram ser a melhor opção para um desenvolvimento urbano sustentável, observando-se benefícios ambientais (através da proteção e apreciação das amenidades ambientais), bem como benefícios ao nível social e económico (através da maior concentração urbana, preço de habitação e valor total do imobiliário na região), contradizendo a problemática de dispersão urbana e os seus impactes negativos. No sentido do cenário integrado ser uma opção mais viável, deveria ser limitada a zona de construção e mantidos os aspetos ambientais da paisagem.Urbanization of coastal areas has increased, over the past decades, caused major pressure over resources and the environment. Population growth led to an increasing need for housing, which resulted in a rapid, unplanned and disperse urbanization – leading to the destruction and degradation of the environment. This type of extensive and scattered urbanization is known as urban sprawl. In order to contradict the negative impacts of urban sprawl and protect coastal environments, there is the need to procure sustainable urban development. This can be achieved through the implementation of frameworks and policies focused on achieving sustainability goals. In Portugal, one of those plans is the Regional Spatial Development Plan (PROT). Several land use models have been developed in order to assess historical and future land uses changes. This study aims to assess the regional spatial plan and its components for the Ria de Aveiro region (PROT-Centro), using the SULD decision support tool, in order to understand to what extent this plan contributes to sustainable urbanization of the region. Taking a sustainable development perspective, results show that even though the Integrated scenario is not the worst option it is, also, not the best option. From this perspective, the Environmental scenario results to be the best option for sustainable urban development, showing benefits from an environmental perspective (through the protection and appreciation of environmental amenities) as well as from a social and economic level (through increased urban concentration, housing prices and total real estate value in the region), while contradicting the problematic of urban sprawl and its negative effects. For the integrated scenario to be a more viable option, it should limit unconstrained urbanization and maintain more environmental aspects in the landscape

Application of a Spatially Explicit, Agent-Based Land Use Conversion Model to Assess Water Quality Outcomes under Buffer Policies

Land use changes within watersheds have spatially explicit dynamics and involve decision making by individuals. The role of the spatial dimension of human behavior and its impact on land use change has been analyzed using agent-based modelling approaches. Agent-based land use change has received a significant theoretical attention; however, these models lack empirical implementation and testing due to the lack of spatial modelling tools and data that can capture human land use dynamics.;This research presents a methodology for projecting land use conversions through the implementation of a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model in the Opequon Creek watershed of Berkeley County, West Virginia. Empirical estimates for factors that influence the land use conversion probability are captured using a spatial logistic regression model. Then, agentbased probabilistic land use conversion (APLUC) model is programmed on Python language within a geographic information system (GIS) to explore the impacts of policies on land use conversion decisions using estimates from actual land use change from 2001-2011. A series of model runs are executed under buffer policy scenarios. Three policy scenarios are developed: (1) a scenario where there is no policy implemented, (2) a scenario where 50 ft buffer zones are applied to all streams, and (3) a scenario where 50 ft buffers are applied only on critical source areas (CSAs) watersheds. The land use patterns project in APLUC model are driven by individual land conversion decisions over 50 model runs of 10 iterations each under each policy scenario. The APLUC model is validated at sub-basin level and outcomes are analyzed to identify the influence of various land use policies on land use patterns. The results show that a 50 ft buffer policy everywhere in watershed, greatly reduced the residential land use conversions. Spatial patterns generated under a 50 ft buffer policy in CSAs only showed that future projected land use changes occurred close to major highways. In the baseline policy, most conversions occurred near existing residential land use and urban centers. Results from the APLUC model also suggests that forest is serving as distant amenity for residential land conversion.;Finally, the impacts of these three policies on water quality are estimated using an ArcSWAT model, a graphical user interface for SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). This model indicates that the 50 ft buffer policy in CSAs is most effective among the three policies in reducing the pollutant loads. This study suggests that carefully designed policies, which discourage residential land use conversion in CSAs, result in less pollutant loads by shifting the location of residential conversion to less critical areas where agricultural land is dominant in the watershed

Empirical Analysis and Modelling of Information and Communications Technology in Agriculture for Southern Ontario, Canada

Information and communications technology (ICT) represents an important enabling technology for on-farm operations that helps to maximise yield and minimise on-farm inputs. This study investigates the adoption factors and coverage characteristics of ICT in Southern Ontario. A set of eight site and situation adoption factors were identified explaining 57% of the variation in agricultural high-speed Internet utilisation for Southern Ontario. ICT coverage was assessed through service carrier and band factors, and their presence in rural settlements. Findings of the research indicate that there exists a digital divide among settlements in Southern Ontario and recommendations for targeted policy and investment in infrastructure are proposed to bridge the gap

Farmer's decisions and landscape change : an actor-based approach for land-use research

This dissertation has two objectives. The first objective is to link conceptually individual decisions and land-use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in rural regions. The second objective is to use these concepts to explore the influence of policy on LUCC as a response of farmers' decisions. To achieve these objectives, different approaches are used. Firstly, agent typologies are used to simplify and allocate the regional diversity of farmers' decisions. Secondly, an agent-based approach is used to link individual decisions and LUCC patterns in a regional model. Thirdly, this approach is applied to explore how farmers' response to national and global socio-economic and biophysical processes can affect the landscape of a Dutch rural region. Fourthly, this approach is applied to explore how farmers' participation in voluntary mechanisms to restore native vegetation can affect the landscape in rural Australia. Finally, the implication of these results for LUCC research and policy-making are discussed