43,591 research outputs found
Regularization and Bayesian Learning in Dynamical Systems: Past, Present and Future
Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been
repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t.
classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to
illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved
over the years, starting from the early contributions both in the Automatic
Control as well as Econometrics and Statistics literature. In particular we
shall discuss some fundamental issues such as compound estimation problems and
exchangeability which play and important role in regularization and Bayesian
approaches, as also illustrated in early publications in Statistics. The
historical and foundational issues will be given more emphasis (and space), at
the expense of the more recent developments which are only briefly discussed.
The main reason for such a choice is that, while the recent literature is
readily available, and surveys have already been published on the subject, in
the author's opinion a clear link with past work had not been completely
clarified.Comment: Plenary Presentation at the IFAC SYSID 2015. Submitted to Annual
Reviews in Contro
Bayesian topology identification of linear dynamic networks
In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the
interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a
Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection
method for identifying the connectivity of networks of transfer functions,
without the need to estimate the dynamics. The algorithm employs a Bayesian
measure and a forward-backward search algorithm. To obtain the Bayesian
measure, the impulse responses of network modules are modeled as Gaussian
processes and the hyperparameters are estimated by marginal likelihood
maximization using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Numerical results
demonstrate the effectiveness of this method
An empirical Bayes approach to identification of modules in dynamic networks
We present a new method of identifying a specific module in a dynamic
network, possibly with feedback loops. Assuming known topology, we express the
dynamics by an acyclic network composed of two blocks where the first block
accounts for the relation between the known reference signals and the input to
the target module, while the second block contains the target module. Using an
empirical Bayes approach, we model the first block as a Gaussian vector with
covariance matrix (kernel) given by the recently introduced stable spline
kernel. The parameters of the target module are estimated by solving a marginal
likelihood problem with a novel iterative scheme based on the
Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Additionally, we extend the method to
include additional measurements downstream of the target module. Using Markov
Chain Monte Carlo techniques, it is shown that the same iterative scheme can
solve also this formulation. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness
of the proposed methods
Bayesian kernel-based system identification with quantized output data
In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification
with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean
Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed
stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential
stability. This serves as a starting point to cast our system identification
problem into a Bayesian framework. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
methods to provide an estimate of the system. In particular, we show how to
design a Gibbs sampler which quickly converges to the target distribution.
Numerical simulations show a substantial improvement in the accuracy of the
estimates over state-of-the-art kernel-based methods when employed in
identification of systems with quantized data.Comment: Submitted to IFAC SysId 201
Support Vector Machine in Prediction of Building Energy Demand Using Pseudo Dynamic Approach
Building's energy consumption prediction is a major concern in the recent
years and many efforts have been achieved in order to improve the energy
management of buildings. In particular, the prediction of energy consumption in
building is essential for the energy operator to build an optimal operating
strategy, which could be integrated to building's energy management system
(BEMS). This paper proposes a prediction model for building energy consumption
using support vector machine (SVM). Data-driven model, for instance, SVM is
very sensitive to the selection of training data. Thus the relevant days data
selection method based on Dynamic Time Warping is used to train SVM model. In
addition, to encompass thermal inertia of building, pseudo dynamic model is
applied since it takes into account information of transition of energy
consumption effects and occupancy profile. Relevant days data selection and
whole training data model is applied to the case studies of Ecole des Mines de
Nantes, France Office building. The results showed that support vector machine
based on relevant data selection method is able to predict the energy
consumption of building with a high accuracy in compare to whole data training.
In addition, relevant data selection method is computationally cheaper (around
8 minute training time) in contrast to whole data training (around 31 hour for
weekend and 116 hour for working days) and reveals realistic control
implementation for online system as well.Comment: Proceedings of ECOS 2015-The 28th International Conference on
Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy
Systems , Jun 2015, Pau, Franc
Regularized linear system identification using atomic, nuclear and kernel-based norms: the role of the stability constraint
Inspired by ideas taken from the machine learning literature, new
regularization techniques have been recently introduced in linear system
identification. In particular, all the adopted estimators solve a regularized
least squares problem, differing in the nature of the penalty term assigned to
the impulse response. Popular choices include atomic and nuclear norms (applied
to Hankel matrices) as well as norms induced by the so called stable spline
kernels. In this paper, a comparative study of estimators based on these
different types of regularizers is reported. Our findings reveal that stable
spline kernels outperform approaches based on atomic and nuclear norms since
they suitably embed information on impulse response stability and smoothness.
This point is illustrated using the Bayesian interpretation of regularization.
We also design a new class of regularizers defined by "integral" versions of
stable spline/TC kernels. Under quite realistic experimental conditions, the
new estimators outperform classical prediction error methods also when the
latter are equipped with an oracle for model order selection
Outlier robust system identification: a Bayesian kernel-based approach
In this paper, we propose an outlier-robust regularized kernel-based method
for linear system identification. The unknown impulse response is modeled as a
zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently
proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and
exponential stability. To build robustness to outliers, we model the
measurement noise as realizations of independent Laplacian random variables.
The identification problem is cast in a Bayesian framework, and solved by a new
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme. In particular, exploiting the
representation of the Laplacian random variables as scale mixtures of
Gaussians, we design a Gibbs sampler which quickly converges to the target
distribution. Numerical simulations show a substantial improvement in the
accuracy of the estimates over state-of-the-art kernel-based methods.Comment: 5 figure
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