Emergent behavior in multiplicative critical processes and applications to economy

Tese de doutoramento, Física, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014The main objective of this thesis is to develop a theoretical foundation for the study of economic phenomena based on methods of statistical physics applied to a system composed by set of multiplicative processes. An equivalent of equilibrium is established for such system and proved to behave statistically as in thermal equilibrium. An equivalent to canonical and microcanonical ensembles is realized and the relation with the theory of scale-free complex networks is made. The statistics of more than one century of US economy is studied in the light of these findings and an explanation for inflation and the resilience of wealth inequalities is found. The equivalent of Markov stochastic process on the set of multiplicative processes is established and the corresponding Fokker-Plank equation is derived. Moreover, a relation with self-organized criticality (SOC) is made. The study of market fluctuations is done using SOC models and yielding the same result as the Fokker-Planck approach. Based on these findings, we will argue that the distribution on the fluctuations of prices in organized market cannot follow Levy-stable distributions as stated by Mandelbrot.89 Finally, some applications to market and credit risk are made.O objectivo principal desta tese é o desenvolvimento de um novo equadramento teórico para o estudo dos fenómenos económicos baseado em métodos da física estatística aplicada a sistema composto por um agregado de processos multiplicativos. Num tal sistema, um estado equivalente ao estado de equil1íbrio emerge e demonstra-se que o seu comportamento estatístico é semelhante a um sistema em equilíbrio térmico. É realizado o estudo dos correspondentes ensembles canónico e microcanónico e feita a ligação com a teoria das redes complexas livres de escala. A estatística de mais de um século de economia dos EUA é estudada à luz destes desenvolvimentos é.dada uma explicação para os fenómenos da inflacção e da resiliência das desiguladades sociais. O equivalente ao processos estocásticos Markovianos no agregado de processos multiplicativos é establecido com o desenvolvimento da correspondente equação de Fokker-Planck e é feita a relacção com o fenómeno da criticalidade auto-organizada(SOC). O estudo das flutuações nos preços de mercado usando modelos SOC é feito levando ao mesmo resultado esperado pela abordagem equação de Fokker-Planck, o que nos vai permitir no futuro fazer a ligação com conjunto de ferramentas desenvolvidas pela matemática financeira. Baseado nestes resultados, argumentamos que as flutuações dos preços de mercado não podem seguir distribuições Lévy estáveis como propunha Mandelbrot89.Finalmente, algumas aplicações do enquadramento teórico são apresentadas.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Pierre Duhem’s philosophy and history of science

LEITE (Fábio Rodrigo) – STOFFEL (Jean-François), Introduction (pp. 3-6). BARRA (Eduardo Salles de O.) – SANTOS (Ricardo Batista dos), Duhem’s analysis of Newtonian method and the logical priority of physics over metaphysics (pp. 7-19). BORDONI (Stefano), The French roots of Duhem’s early historiography and epistemology (pp. 20-35). CHIAPPIN (José R. N.) – LARANJEIRAS (Cássio Costa), Duhem’s critical analysis of mecha­ni­cism and his defense of a formal conception of theoretical phy­sics (pp. 36-53). GUEGUEN (Marie) – PSILLOS (Stathis), Anti-­scepticism and epistemic humility in Pierre Duhem’s philosophy of science (pp. 54-72). LISTON (Michael), Duhem : images of science, historical continuity, and the first crisis in physics (pp. 73-84). MAIOCCHI (Roberto), Duhem in pre-war Italian philos­ophy : the reasons of an absence (pp. 85-92). HERNÁNDEZ MÁRQUEZ (Víctor Manuel), Was Pierre Duhem an «esprit de finesse» ? (pp. 93-107). NEEDHAM (Paul), Was Duhem justified in not distinguishing between physical and chemical atomism ? (pp. 108-111). OLGUIN (Roberto Estrada), «Bon sens» and «noûs» (pp. 112-126). OLIVEIRA (Amelia J.), Duhem’s legacy for the change in the historiography of science : An analysis based on Kuhn’s writings (pp. 127-139). PRÍNCIPE (João), Poincaré and Duhem : Resonances in their first epistemological reflec­tions (pp. 140-156). MONDRAGON (Damián Islas), Book review of «Pierre Duhem : entre física y metafísica» (pp. 157-159). STOFFEL (Jean-François), Book review of P. Duhem : «La théorie physique : son objet, sa structure» / edit. by S. Roux (pp. 160-162). STOFFEL (Jean-François), Book review of St. Bordoni : «When historiography met epistemology» (pp. 163-165)

Special Functions: Fractional Calculus and the Pathway for Entropy

Historically, the notion of entropy emerged in conceptually very distinct contexts. This book deals with the connection between entropy, probability, and fractional dynamics as they appeared, for example, in solar neutrino astrophysics since the 1970's (Mathai and Rathie 1975, Mathai and Pederzoli 1977, Mathai and Saxena 1978, Mathai, Saxena, and Haubold 2010). The original solar neutrino problem, experimentally and theoretically, was resolved through the discovery of neutrino oscillations and was recently enriched by neutrino entanglement entropy. To reconsider possible new physics of solar neutrinos, diffusion entropy analysis, utilizing Boltzmann entropy, and standard deviation analysis was undertaken with Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data. This analysis revealed a non-Gaussian signal with harmonic content. The Hurst exponent is different from the scaling exponent of the probability density function and both Hurst exponent and scaling exponent of the Super-Kamiokande data deviate considerably from the value of ½, which indicates that the statistics of the underlying phenomenon is anomalous. Here experiment may provide guidance about the generalization of theory of Boltzmann statistical mechanics. Arguments in the so-called Boltzmann-Planck-Einstein discussion related to Planck's discovery of the black-body radiation law are recapitulated mathematically and statistically and emphasize from this discussion is pursued that a meaningful implementation of the complex ‘entropy-probability-dynamics’ may offer two ways for explaining the results of diffusion entropy analysis and standard deviation analysis. One way is to consider an anomalous diffusion process that needs to use the fractional space-time diffusion equation (Gorenflo and Mainardi) and the other way is to consider a generalized Boltzmann entropy by assuming a power law probability density function. Here new mathematical framework, invented by sheer thought, may provide guidance for the generalization of Boltzmann statistical mechanics. In this book Boltzmann entropy, generalized by Tsallis and Mathai, is considered. The second one contains a varying parameter that is used to construct an entropic pathway covering generalized type-1 beta, type-2 beta, and gamma families of densities. Similarly, pathways for respective distributions and differential equations can be developed. Mathai's entropy is optimized under various conditions reproducing the well-known Boltzmann distribution, Raleigh distribution, and other distributions used in physics. Properties of the entropy measure for the generalized entropy are examined. In this process the role of special functions of mathematical physics, particularly the H-function, is highlighted

Theories of Informetrics and Scholarly Communication

Scientometrics have become an essential element in the practice and evaluation of science and research, including both the evaluation of individuals and national assessment exercises. Yet, researchers and practitioners in this field have lacked clear theories to guide their work. As early as 1981, then doctoral student Blaise Cronin published "The need for a theory of citing" —a call to arms for the fledgling scientometric community to produce foundational theories upon which the work of the field could be based. More than three decades later, the time has come to reach out the field again and ask how they have responded to this call. This book compiles the foundational theories that guide informetrics and scholarly communication research. It is a much needed compilation by leading scholars in the field that gathers together the theories that guide our understanding of authorship, citing, and impact

Theories of Informetrics and Scholarly Communication

Scientometrics have become an essential element in the practice and evaluation of science and research, including both the evaluation of individuals and national assessment exercises. Yet, researchers and practitioners in this field have lacked clear theories to guide their work. As early as 1981, then doctoral student Blaise Cronin published The need for a theory of citing - a call to arms for the fledgling scientometric community to produce foundational theories upon which the work of the field could be based. More than three decades later, the time has come to reach out the field again and ask how they have responded to this call. This book compiles the foundational theories that guide informetrics and scholarly communication research. It is a much needed compilation by leading scholars in the field that gathers together the theories that guide our understanding of authorship, citing, and impact

A microscopic model of signal transduction mechanisms: olfaction

This thesis recognizes that: in many systems the initial small molecule - receptor recognition processes, and thus signal transduction, is not fully understood to the highest level of scientifc explanation and prediction. One such example of this is olfaction. Molecules cannot necessarily be predicted from a smell, and similarly a smell from molecules. Better understanding of these initial steps, would have important repercussions, especially in the field of rational drug design. So in general the thesis proves the physical feasibility and potential of a novel and generic signaling model, and in particular looks at those processes in olfaction. The conjecture 'Could humans recognize odours through phonon assisted tunneling?' is tested. This is based on the idea (Turin, 1996) that the nose recognizes an odorant's vibrations (phonons) via inelastic electron tunneling (IETS). The nose thus acts as a 'meat spectroscope'. First the background biology of the olfactory system is evaluated, then the conjecture is posed as a soluble problem. Traditional physics ideas are reconciled with the biological environment. It is proven that no physics based objections hold against the working of this new mechanism, thus a predictive and explanatory theory is now introduced to the field. The parameters of odorant discrimination are explored. In particular the 'Huang-Rhys factor' is modeled as a measure of the electron-phonon coupling integral to signal transduction. Several approaches are considered, 'odorant spectra' is created. Objections to the conjecture are considered, in particular the apparent paradox of enantiomer discrimination. The apparent paradox is shown to be obsolete. A correlation between a certain type of flexibility and whether enantiomer pairs smell the same is found. A rule is established: The members of an enantiomer pair will smell alike (type 1) when the molecules are rigid, and will smell different (type 2) when they are flexible. This flexibility refers to a particular property of six-membered rings. A consequence of this finding leads to the investigation of certain steroids in correlation to their bio-effects, and it is found that similar features are apparent, thus the mechanism of biological IETS is applied to other systems

Frontiers in psychodynamic neuroscience

he term psychodynamics was introduced in 1874 by Ernst von Brücke, the renowned German physiologist and Freud’s research supervisor at the University of Vienna. Together with Helmholtz and others, Brücke proposed that all living organisms are energy systems, regulated by the same thermodynamic laws. Since Freud was a student of Brücke and a deep admirer of Helmholtz, he adopted this view, thus laying the foundations for his metapsychology. The discovery of the Default Network and the birth of Neuropsychoanalysis, twenty years ago, facilitated a deep return to this classical conception of the brain as an energy system, and therefore a return to Freud's early ambition to establish psychology as natural science. Our current investigations of neural networks and applications of the Free Energy Principle are equally ‘psychodynamic’ in Brücke’s original sense of the term. Some branches of contemporary neuroscience still eschew subjective data and therefore exclude the brain’s most remarkable property – its selfhood – from the field, and many neuroscientists remain skeptical about psychoanalytic methods, theories, and concepts. Likewise, some psychoanalysts continue to reject any consideration of the structure and functions of the brain from their conceptualization of the mind in health and disease. Both cases seem to perpetuate a Cartesian attitude in which the mind is linked to the brain in some equivocal relationship and an attitude that detaches the brain from the body -- rather than considering it an integral part of the complex and dynamic living organism as a whole. Evidence from psychodynamic neuroscience suggests that Freudian constructs can now be realized neurobiologically. For example, Freud’s notion of primary and secondary processes is consistent with the hierarchical organization of self-organized cortical and subcortical systems, and his description of the ego is consistent with the functions of the Default Network and its reciprocal exchanges with subordinate brain systems. Moreover, thanks to new methods of measuring brain entropy, we can now operationalize the primary and secondary processes and therefore test predictions arising from these Freudian constructs. All of this makes it possible to deepen the dialogue between neuroscience and psychoanalysis, in ways and to a degree that was unimaginable in Freud's time, and even compared to twenty years ago. Many psychoanalytical hypotheses are now well integrated with contemporary neuroscience. Other Freudian and post-Freudian hypotheses about the structure and function of the mind seem ripe for the detailed and sophisticated development that modern psychodynamic neuroscience can offer. This Research Topic aims to provide comprehensive coverage of the latest advances in psychodynamic neuroscience and neuropsychoanalysis. Potential authors are invited to submit papers (original research, case reports, review articles, commentaries) that deploy, review, compare or develop the methods and theories of psychodynamic neuroscience and neuropsychoanalysis. Potential authors include researchers, psychoanalysts, and neuroscientists

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy ventures into a territory that is still widely unexplored. It contains 30 academic contributions that aim to provide a better understanding of whether, why, and how philanthropic initiatives, understood as voluntary contributions for the common good, can and should be fostered by states through tax incentives. The topic has been addressed from a multidisciplinary and multicultural perspective – covering neuroeconomics, sociology, political science, psychology, affective sciences, philosophy, behavioral economy, and law – because of its global and multifaceted nature. It also contains the OECD report on Taxation and Philanthropy released in November 2020, which was prepared in this context as a result of a collaboration with the Geneva Centre for Philanthropy of the University of Geneva. The book is divided into four sections, exploring, respectively, the justification of tax incentives for philanthropy, theoretical and empirical insights about taxes, efficiency and donor behavior in that context, and tax incentives for cross-border philanthropy and for hybrid entities and social entrepreneurship. It is believed that this volume will be a landmark yet only the beginning of a journey in which a lot remains to be studied, learned, and said

Nihilism Inc.: Environmental Destruction and the Metaphysics of Sustainability

The spectre of global environmental destruction is before us, the legacy of the expansion and domination of the world by European civilization. Not even the threat to the continued existence of humanity is enough to move the members of this civilization to alter its trajectory. And Marxism, which had held out the possibility of creating a new social order, has been swept from the historical stage by the failure of Eastern European communism. Nihilism Inc. is an attempt to overcome this crisis. Examining the relationship between metaphysical assumptions, ideas, social practices, institutions and economic processes in the formation and evolution of European civilization, it offers a genealogy of its current nihilism. The theory and practice of Marxism are analysed to show why the Soviet Union proved even more environmentally destructive and even less responsive to the environmental crisis than the West. These analyses reveal the need for a radical cultural transformation, a transformation which can only be effected on the foundation of a new metaphysics. The final part of this work offers the required metaphysics, clearing the way for the creation of an environmentally sustainable civilization