StockEmotions: Discover Investor Emotions for Financial Sentiment Analysis and Multivariate Time Series

There has been growing interest in applying NLP techniques in the financial domain, however, resources are extremely limited. This paper introduces StockEmotions, a new dataset for detecting emotions in the stock market that consists of 10,000 English comments collected from StockTwits, a financial social media platform. Inspired by behavioral finance, it proposes 12 fine-grained emotion classes that span the roller coaster of investor emotion. Unlike existing financial sentiment datasets, StockEmotions presents granular features such as investor sentiment classes, fine-grained emotions, emojis, and time series data. To demonstrate the usability of the dataset, we perform a dataset analysis and conduct experimental downstream tasks. For financial sentiment/emotion classification tasks, DistilBERT outperforms other baselines, and for multivariate time series forecasting, a Temporal Attention LSTM model combining price index, text, and emotion features achieves the best performance than using a single feature.Comment: Preprint for the AAAI-23 Bridge Program (AI for Financial Services

A novel Twitter sentiment analysis model with baseline correlation for financial market prediction with improved efficiency

A novel social networks sentiment analysis model is proposed based on Twitter sentiment score (TSS) for real-time prediction of the future stock market price FTSE 100, as compared with conventional econometric models of investor sentiment based on closed-end fund discount (CEFD). The proposed TSS model features a new baseline correlation approach, which not only exhibits a decent prediction accuracy, but also reduces the computation burden and enables a fast decision making without the knowledge of historical data. Polynomial regression, classification modelling and lexicon-based sentiment analysis are performed using R. The obtained TSS predicts the future stock market trend in advance by 15 time samples (30 working hours) with an accuracy of 67.22% using the proposed baseline criterion without referring to historical TSS or market data. Specifically, TSS's prediction performance of an upward market is found far better than that of a downward market. Under the logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis, the accuracy of TSS in predicting the upward trend of the future market achieves 97.87%

Prediksi Sentimen Investor Pasar Modal Di Jejaring Sosial Menggunakan Text Mining

The decline in optimism for capital market investors is one of the financial impacts on the business world that arose from the SARS-COVID19 pandemic. This event was reflected in a decrease in trading volume followed by a sharp drop in the JCI on the Indonesia Stock Exchange starting March 2020. Thus, a slowdown in the economic recovery resulting from the pandemic is reflected in investor sentiment in the capital market. On the one hand, the rapid development of the internet in Indonesia has triggered the investor's activities in the information searching prior buy and sell securities, mostly use online platforms, which contribute to influencing investor preferences and sentiment. This study conducted a qualitative examination of the features/terms of stock investment in the capital market and collected them in a compact dictionary (lexicon). Therefore, lexicon-based investor opinion extraction was extracted from Twitter, followed by the text sentiment analysis, and forming a classification model based on Naive Bayes and Decision Tree. This research output shows that the polarity of capital market investor sentiment is optimistic with the sentiment features that often appear, namely "cuan", "bearish," "serok", "copet", "untung", "cut loss", and "nyangkut." Meanwhile, the Decision Tree classification model provides better performance.Keywords                        :  investor, lexicon, social network, stock exchange, text miningCorrespondence to        : [email protected] Penurunan optimisme investor pasar modal adalah salah satu dampak keuangan pada dunia usaha yang timbul akibat pandemi SARS-COVID19. Hal ini tercermin dari turunnya volume perdagangan yang diikuti penurunan tajam IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia mulai Maret 2020. Sehingga kekhawatiran atas perlambatan pemulihan ekonomi sebagai dampak pandemi, tercermin dari sentimen investor di pasar modal. Di satu sisi, perkembangan internet di Indonesia yang pesat, memicu kecenderungan aktivitas investor dalam pencarian informasi sebelum membeli dan menjual surat berharga  secara online, turut berkontribusi dalam mempengaruhi preferensi dan sentimen investor. Penelitian ini menggali ekspektasi investor yang tercermin pada sentimen investasi, dimana pasar modal sebagai salah satu barometer penting perekonomian suatu negara. Kajian ini mengeksplorasi fitur/terms investasi saham yang kerap muncul di pasar modal dan mengumpulkannya dalam kamus leksikon. Kemudian, dilakukan ekstraksi opini investor berbasis leksikon yang digali dari jejaring sosial Twitter, dilanjutkan dengan tahap text mining yaitu menganalisis sentimen, dan membentuk model klasifikasi berbasis Naive Bayes dan Decision Tree. Keluaran penelitian ini  menunjukkan bahwa polaritas sentimen investor pasar modal adalah positif dengan fitur sentimen yang sering muncul yaitu “cuan”, “bearish”, “serok”, “copet”, “untung”, dan “cut loss”. Sedangkan model klasifikasi Decision Tree memberikan performansi akurasi yang kebih baik.Kata Kunci                  : Analisis sentimen; Investor; Leksikon; Text mining; Twitte

Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows

We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In both markets exposure to this factor is priced, and in the Japanese case, we document evidence of negative correlations between Bull' and Bear' domestic funds. The flows to bear foreign funds in Japan display some evidence of negative correlation to domestic and foreign equity funds, suggesting that there is a foreign vs. domestic sentiment factor in Japan that does not appear in the contemporaneous U.S. data. By contrast, U.S. mutual fund investors appear to regard domestic and foreign equity mutual funds as economic substitutes.

Deep learning-based cryptocurrency sentiment construction

We study investor sentiment on a non-classical asset such as cryptocurrency using machine learning methods. We account for context-specific information and word similarity using efficient language modeling tools such as construction of featurized word representations (embeddings) and recursive neural networks. We apply these tools for sentence-level sentiment classification and sentiment index construction. This analysis is performed on a novel dataset of 1220K messages related to 425 cryptocurrencies posted on a microblogging platform StockTwits during the period between March 2013 and May 2018. Both in- and out-of-sample predictive regressions are run to test significance of the constructed sentiment index variables. We find that the constructed sentiment indices are informative regarding returns and volatility predictability of the cryptocurrency market index

IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany

The underpricing phenomenon of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) has been widely studied across different stock markets around the world and has often been explained to be as a result of asymmetrically distributed information and ex-ante uncertainty. However, as Ritter and Welch (2002) argue to the contrary, these theories are unlikely to explain the persistent pattern of high initial returns during the first trading day as well as other features of the returns data. This paper add some further alternative explanations to the traditional theory while focusing on German IPOs during the 1997 to 2001 period and covering a sample of 410 firms. Using time series regressions the cyclical behaviour of the issue activity is examined and we report, using VAR analysis, that lagged underpricing and IPO volume influence the decision to go public. The cross-sectional regression analysis, using both censored and uncensored data, shows that the initial returns are mainly influenced by investor sentiment and demand, and less by ex-ante uncertainty, especially during the dot-com boom. --Initial Public Offerings (IPO),Underpricing,Investor Sentiment,Hot-issue Markets,Ex-ante Uncertainty