Forecasting seasonal time series with computational intelligence: on recent methods and the potential of their combinations

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and or- ganizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce novel methods for multi-step seasonal time series forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: evolutionary artificial neu- ral networks, support vector machines and genuine linguistic fuzzy rules. Performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified on sea- sonal time series from distinct domains on three forecasting horizons. The most important contribution is the introduction of a new hybrid combination using linguistic fuzzy rules and the other computational intelligence methods. This hybrid combination presents competitive forecasts, when compared with the popular ARIMA method. Moreover, such hybrid model is more easy to interpret by decision-makers when modeling trended series.The research was supported by the European Regional Development Fund in the IT4Innovations Centre of Excellence project (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0070). Furthermore, we gratefully acknowledge partial support of the project KON- TAKT II - LH12229 of MSˇMT CˇR

Governance Challenges of AI-enabled Decentralized Autonomous Organizations: Toward a Research Agenda

The emergence of novel applications using distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) has gathered pace since the introduction of Bitcoin and the subsequent release of the Ethereum platform for decentralized applications (dApps). Such decentrally governed DLT systems are accelerating the displacement of intermediaries in regulated contexts such as the financial system and challenging the efficacy of governance regimes that have conventionally levered governance controls on identifiable, accountable decision-makers. The governance challenges of DLT systems are exacerbated by the arrival of digital autonomous organizations (DAOs) that use on-ledger decision-making mechanisms to further displace or eliminate human decision-makers. When DAOs are augmented with artificial intelligence (AI), their potent combination of computational power and access to large on-platform data sets and resources, signals a significant disruption to conventional institutional, regulatory, and legal governance regimes. This paper discusses the governance challenges of AI-enabled DAOs and presents a research agenda to address these challenges

Artificial Intelligence in the Context of Human Consciousness

Artificial intelligence (AI) can be defined as the ability of a machine to learn and make decisions based on acquired information. AI’s development has incited rampant public speculation regarding the singularity theory: a futuristic phase in which intelligent machines are capable of creating increasingly intelligent systems. Its implications, combined with the close relationship between humanity and their machines, make achieving understanding both natural and artificial intelligence imperative. Researchers are continuing to discover natural processes responsible for essential human skills like decision-making, understanding language, and performing multiple processes simultaneously. Artificial intelligence attempts to simulate these functions through techniques like artificial neural networks, Markov Decision Processes, Human Language Technology, and Multi-Agent Systems, which rely upon a combination of mathematical models and hardware

Bounded Rationality and Heuristics in Humans and in Artificial Cognitive Systems

In this paper I will present an analysis of the impact that the notion of “bounded rationality”, introduced by Herbert Simon in his book “Administrative Behavior”, produced in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). In particular, by focusing on the field of Automated Decision Making (ADM), I will show how the introduction of the cognitive dimension into the study of choice of a rational (natural) agent, indirectly determined - in the AI field - the development of a line of research aiming at the realisation of artificial systems whose decisions are based on the adoption of powerful shortcut strategies (known as heuristics) based on “satisficing” - i.e. non optimal - solutions to problem solving. I will show how the “heuristic approach” to problem solving allowed, in AI, to face problems of combinatorial complexity in real-life situations and still represents an important strategy for the design and implementation of intelligent systems

Computable Rationality, NUTS, and the Nuclear Leviathan

This paper explores how the Leviathan that projects power through nuclear arms exercises a unique nuclearized sovereignty. In the case of nuclear superpowers, this sovereignty extends to wielding the power to destroy human civilization as we know it across the globe. Nuclearized sovereignty depends on a hybrid form of power encompassing human decision-makers in a hierarchical chain of command, and all of the technical and computerized functions necessary to maintain command and control at every moment of the sovereign's existence: this sovereign power cannot sleep. This article analyzes how the form of rationality that informs this hybrid exercise of power historically developed to be computable. By definition, computable rationality must be able to function without any intelligible grasp of the context or the comprehensive significance of decision-making outcomes. Thus, maintaining nuclearized sovereignty necessarily must be able to execute momentous life and death decisions without the type of sentience we usually associate with ethical individual and collective decisions

Using a cognitive prosthesis to assist foodservice managerial decision-making

The artificial intelligence community has been notably unsuccessful in producing intelligent agents that think for themselves. However, there is an obvious need for increased information processing power in real life situations. An example of this can be witnessed in the training of a foodservice manager, who is expected to solve a wide variety of complex problems on a daily basis. This article explores the possibility of creating an intelligence aid, rather than an intelligence agent, to assist novice foodservice managers in making decisions that are congruent with a subject matter expert\u27s decision schema