A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior

Based on a survey of behavioral finance literature, this paper presents a descriptive model of individual investor behavior in which investment decisions are seen as an iterative process of interactions between the investor and the investment environment. This investment process is influenced by a number of interdependent variables and driven by dual mental systems, the interplay of which contributes to boundedly rational behavior where investors use various heuristics and may exhibit behavioral biases. In the modeling tradition of cognitive science and intelligent systems, the investor is seen as a learning, adapting, and evolving entity that perceives the environment, processes information, acts upon it, and updates his or her internal states. This conceptual model can be used to build stylized representations of (classes of) individual investors, and further studied using the paradigm of agent-based artificial financial markets. By allowing us to implement individual investor behavior, to choose various market mechanisms, and to analyze the obtained asset prices, agent-based models can bridge the gap between the micro level of individual investor behavior and the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recognized, yet not fully explored, that these models could be used as a tool to generate or test various behavioral hypothesis.behavioral finance;financial decision making;agent-based artificial financial markets;cognitive modeling;investor behavior

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

A conceptual framework for changes in Fund Management and Accountability relative to ESG issues

Major developments in socially responsible investment (SRI) and in environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues for fund managers (FMs) have occurred in the past decade. Much positive change has occurred but problems of disclosure, transparency and accountability remain. This article argues that trustees, FM investors and investee companies all require shared knowledge to overcome, in part, these problems. This involves clear concepts of accountability, and knowledge of fund management and of the associated ‘chain of accountability’ to enhance visibility and transparency. Dealing with the problems also requires development of an analytic framework based on relevant literature and theory. These empirical and analytic constructs combine to form a novel conceptual framework that is used to identify a clear set of areas to change FM investment decision making in a coherent way relative to ESG issues. The constructs and the change strategy are also used together to analyse how one can create favourable conditions for enhanced accountability. Ethical problems and climate change issues will be used as the main examples of ESG issues. The article has policy implications for the UK ‘Stewardship Code’ (2010), the legal responsibilities of key players and for the ‘Carbon Disclosure Project’

Female Investors and Securities Fraud: Is the Reasonable Investor a Woman?

Let\u27s face it. Women and men are different in more than just the biological sense. These differences play themselves out in a variety of contexts. Some of them are meaningful in theory or in reality; others are not. Given an increase in women\u27s involvement in business and finance, it is unsurprising that a multidisciplinary literature is emerging at the intersection of sex or gender differences and corporate governance. Much of the work in this area has centered on women and boards of directors and women in the executive ranks. However, it is important to focus on women not only as corporate directors and officers, but also as investors in firms. Among other things, the identification and analysis of sex-based or gender-related differences in investment behavior may help explain or predict market phenomena and may illuminate defects or gaps in regulatory frameworks or provisions. For example, the investment attributes of female investors may indicate that women are better or less well protected from changes in firms, laws, or the market than their male investor counterparts. Research along these lines is especially relevant at present in light of ongoing allegations of securities fraud and significant volatility in securities markets. With all of this in mind, this article extends scholarship that questions the existing materiality standard used under Rule 10b-5 (and elsewhere in U.S. securities regulation) and its touchstone notion of the reasonable investor. Specifically, the article asks and answers a seemingly straightforward, yet provocative, question: Is the reasonable investor a woman? The article then explores the potentialsignificance of its key findings - women and men exhibit different investment behaviors and achieve different investment outcomes, and the resulting female investor profile is closer to existing conceptions of the reasonable investor than the resulting male investor profile. As women become bigger players in the securities markets, it may be comforting to know that they are relatively well protected by existing conceptions of the reasonable investor. The knowledge that women are not completely protected by these existing conceptions and that men are less well protected than women under the current reasonable investor paradigm, however, gives us pause and forces us to reconsider inaction. To that end, this article continues an ongoing academic and practical conversation about when changes in investor protection should be undertaken and how those changes are best made if they are to be undertaken - not just for the benefit of women or men, but for the benefit of all underprotected investors

An Innovative Flexible Investment Vehicle Oriented to Sustainability – The Adaptation of Hedge Funds in the Case of Emerging Markets

The problem of investments oriented on sustainability in emerging markets is actual and complex and should be carefully analysed in order to offer the optimal strategies. The sustainable investments based on ESG (environmental – social - governance) criteria could better respond to the global market drivers (the interest on environmental concerns, the spectral dynamics of energy prices, the speed of technological change) with impact on the design of new business models. The interest is to find an effective and efficient strategy and a vehicle capable to mobilize a critical mass of investment funds oriented in sustainability in the new context of Industry 4.0. The proposal to introduce socially responsible investment funds (SRIF) as a new investment area and hedge fund, as the structure of alternative investments in emerging markets is an absolute novelty for Romania, in the context of a capital market that only in 2020 it move to emerging market status. Putting into practice through effective implementation is possible considering specific adaptation elements presented in this proposal. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</p

Market and Economic Modelling of the Intelligent Grid: End of Year Report 2009

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.Distributed Generation. Energy Economics, Electricity Markets, Renewable Energy

Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. We evaluate the contribution of Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman, often in association with his late co-author Amos Tversky, to the development of our understanding of financial decision-making and the evolution of behavioural finance as a school of thought within Finance. Whilst a general evaluation of the work of Kahneman would be a massive task, we constrain ourselves to a more narrow discussion of his vision of financial-decision making compared to a possible alternative advanced by Gerd Gigerenzer along with numerous co-authors. Both Kahneman and Gigerenzer agree on the centrality of heuristics in decision making. However, for Kahneman heuristics often appear as a fall back when the standard von-Neumann-Morgenstern axioms of rational decision-making do not describe investors' choices. In contrast, for Gigerenzer heuristics are simply a more effective way of evaluating choices in the rich and changing decision making environment investors must face. Gigerenzer challenges Kahneman to move beyond substantiating the presence of heuristics towards a more tangible, testable, description of their use and disposal within the ever changing decision-making environment financial agents inhabit. Here we see the emphasis placed by Gigerenzer on how context and cognition interact to form new schemata for fast and frugal reasoning as offering a productive vein of new research. We illustrate how the interaction between cognition and context already characterises much empirical research and it appears the fast and frugal reasoning perspective of Gigerenzer can provide a framework to enhance our understanding of how financial decisions are made

Comparative analysis of active and passive portfolio management: A theoretical approach

The crises that the world has experienced in the last few years are deeply changing the structure of the world economy and therefore of finance. Human being is probably at the end of 40 years of big deflation and may be at the beginning of a great reflation. This evolution will strongly impact the winning investment strategies, and will push investors to experiment with other methods in order to preserve their income and minimize risks. To achieve this, they must implement effective portfolio management by deploying tools and rigorous processes to manage priorities. Portfolio management can be achieved through either active or passive management. Active management aims to outperform the reference market of the managed portfolio. The manager, using various analytical tools, will select in a discretionary way the products, securities or sectors most likely to grow faster than the market. Conversely, passive or index management aims to faithfully replicate the performance of a benchmark market. There are several reasons why investors may choose between the two methods. Using a traditional literature review, this paper aims to outline the characteristics of each form of portfolio management by highlighting the key differences between active and passive management. This paper also emphasizes that personal preferences, investment objectives and risk tolerance play a crucial role in this decision. The main lessons of this article are that active management has the ability to provide higher returns, but is also accompanied by high fees and greater uncertainties regarding future performance. Passive management, by contrast, offers a more cost-effective approach, but can limit the opportunities for outperformance. &nbsp; Keywords: active management, passive management, investment, literature review, comparative study. JEL Classification: G11, G14. Paper type: Theoretical Research.Les crises que le monde a connues ces dernières années modifient profondément la structure de l'économie mondiale et par conséquent de la finance. L'humanité est probablement à la fin de 40 ans de déflation importante, qu’elle se trouve potentiellement aux prémices d’une phase de grande reflation. Cette évolution aura un impact important sur les stratégies d'investissement gagnantes et poussera les investisseurs à expérimenter d'autres méthodes afin de préserver leurs revenus et de minimiser les risques. Pour y parvenir, ils doivent mettre en œuvre une gestion de portefeuille efficace en déployant des outils et des processus rigoureux pour gérer les priorités. La gestion de portefeuille peut être réalisée par le biais d'une gestion active ou passive. La gestion active vise à surperformer le marché de référence du portefeuille géré. Le gestionnaire, à l'aide de divers outils analytiques, sélectionnera de manière discrétionnaire les produits, les titres ou les secteurs les plus susceptibles de croître plus rapidement que le marché. À l'inverse, la gestion passive ou indicielle vise à reproduire avec fidélité la performance d'un marché de référence. Plusieurs raisons poussent les investisseurs à choisir entre les deux méthodes. À l'aide d'une revue de littérature traditionnelle, ce document vise à présenter les caractéristiques de chaque forme de gestion de portefeuille en soulignant les principales différences entre la gestion active et la gestion passive. Cet article souligne également que les préférences personnelles, les objectifs d'investissement et la tolérance au risque jouent un rôle crucial dans cette décision. Les principaux constats de cet article sont notamment que la gestion active permet d'obtenir des rendements plus élevés, mais qu'elle s'accompagne également de frais élevés et d'une plus grande incertitude quant à la performance à venir. La gestion passive, en revanche, offre une approche plus rentable, mais peut limiter les possibilités de surperformance. &nbsp; Mots-clés: gestion active, gestion passive, investissement, revue de la littérature, étude comparative. Classification JEL: G11, G14. Type d'article: Article de recherch

A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior

Based on a survey of behavioral finance literature, this paper presents a descriptive model of individual investor behavior in which investment decisions are seen as an iterative process of interactions between the investor and the investment environment. This investment process is influenced by a number of interdependent variables and driven by dual mental systems, the interplay of which contributes to boundedly rational behavior where investors use various heuristics and may exhibit behavioral biases. In the modeling tradition of cognitive science and intelligent systems, the investor is seen as a learning, adapting, and evolving entity that perceives the environment, processes information, acts upon it, and updates his or her internal states. This conceptual model can be used to build stylized representations of (classes of) individual investors, and further studied using the paradigm of agent-based artificial financial markets. By allowing us to implement individual investor behavior, to choose various market mechanisms, and to analyze the obtained asset prices, agent-based models can bridge the gap between the micro level of individual investor behavior and the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recognized, yet not fully explored, that these models could be used as a tool to generate or test various behavioral hypothesis