Integrating non-parametric models with linear components for producing software cost estimations

A long-lasting endeavor in the area of software project management is minimizing the risks caused by under- or over-estimations of the overall effort required to build new software systems. Deciding which method to use for achieving accurate cost estimations among the many methods proposed in the relevant literature is a significant issue for project managers. This paper investigates whether it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimations produced by popular non-parametric techniques by coupling them with a linear component, thus producing a new set of techniques called semi-parametric models (SPMs). The non-parametric models examined in this work include estimation by analogy (EbA), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and locally weighted regression (LOESS). Our experimentation shows that the estimation ability of SPMs is superior to their non-parametric counterparts, especially in cases where both a linear and non-linear relationship exists between software effort and the related cost drivers. The proposed approach is empirically validated through a statistical framework which uses multiple comparisons to rank and cluster the models examined in non-overlapping groups performing significantly different

Design for Cost aplicado no projeto de produtos mecatrônicos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica, 2017.O processo de desenvolvimento de produto é fundamental para a competitividade de toda empresa. Os fatores custo, tempo e qualidade devem ser controlados de forma ótima, durante toda a vida útil do produto. Os produtos mecatrônicos adicionam complexidade ao processo de desenvolvimento, dado os diferentes domínios de engenharia envolvidos. No contexto do processo de estimativa de custo e análise econômica de projetos de desenvolvimento de produtos mecatrônicos verificam-se lacunas quanto à análise conjunta do processo, que integre todos os domínios envolvidos. Dentro do contexto do custo no projeto de produto, o design for cost explora todas as fases de um projeto, desde a seleção conceitual do produto até a sua utilização. Esta técnica busca capturar as atividades de planejamento e projeto, desenvolvendo atividades ou resultados de acordo com as restrições financeiras, provendo as ferramentas, técnicas e dados para se atingir as metas de custo de forma satisfatória No presente trabalho foram estudados os principais métodos de estimativa de custo e análise econômico-financeira aplicados no processo de desenvolvimento de produtos. Com objetivo de superar a dificuldade na integração no processo de desenvolvimento de produtos mecatrônicos, essa pesquisa propõe uma sistematização para o processo de estimativa de custo e análise econômica para novos produtos mecatrônicos, com base nos modelos de desenvolvimento de produtos mecatrônicos. A pesquisa compreende três etapas: (1) Aquisição de conhecimentos, (2) Sistematização do processo de estimativa de custo e avaliação econômica, com base na revisão bibliográfica, (3) Validação por meio da aplicação das ferramentas em projetos de protótipos de produtos/sistemas mecatrônicos. A validação da proposta se deu por meio da aplicação em dois estudos de caso em projetos de concepção de protótipos mecatrônicos, um sistema de medição do nível de compactação do solo (penetrômetro); e um equipamento médico assistencial (EMA). Foram analisadas duas concepções para cada caso. A sistematização proposta foi então comparada com um modelo de custo para a engenharia de sistemas, e os resultados obtidos apresentaram uma estimativa de custo próxima ao modelo da engenharia de sistemas. Verificou-se que a metodologia aplicada atende às necessidades de integração do custo no projeto de produto, de forma a preencher as lacunas existentes.The product development project encompasses a series of stages and indicators needed to be controlled during all development process. One of the main criteria for decision making during this process is cost. Success in a new product launch is usually measured in terms of financial results. Related to all cost management models, the design for cost explores all project phases, from the conceptual selection to the product utilization. It aims to capture all the planning activities, executing the activities with the budget constraints, providing tools, techniques and data to reach the goals with satisfactory results. In the context of cost estimation process and economic analysis of mechatronic product development is verified a gap for an integrated analysis of cost. There is a need for an integrated cost analysis that involves all mechatronic product domains. In the context of cost in the product development, the design for cost integrates tools and methods from the conceptual phase until all the product life cycle. In the research the main cost estimation methods and financial analysis metrics were investigate with the aim to be applied in the product development process. To resolve the gap issue of an integrate analysis of cost, the present work proposes a systematization and analysis for the cost estimation and economic analysis for the mechatronic product development in the context of design for cost. The research has three main phases: (1) knowledge acquisition, (2) systematization and analysis of cost estimation process and economic analysis based on the bibliographic review, (3) application of the systematization proposed on mechatronic prototypes to obtain the costs and the financial metrics. The validation of the research occurred by the application of the method in two case studies conceptual product development, a soil measurement equipment and a medical assistance equipment. Then the method developed was compared with a cost model for systems engineering and estimates were very similar with this professional model. It was verifies that the methodology developed fits the integration necessity in the product development and fill the gaps verified in the research. Key words: mechatronic product project, design for cost, cost estimation, economic analysis, project product methodology

Strategies in Software Development Effort Estimation

Software development effort estimating has notoriously been the Achilles heel of the software planning process. Accurately evaluating the effort required to accomplish a software change continues to be problematic, especially in Agile software development. IT organizations and project managers depend on estimation accuracy for planning software deliveries and cost determination. The purpose of this multiple case qualitative study was to identify strategies used by software development professionals in providing accurate effort estimations to stakeholders. The planning fallacy served as the studyâs conceptual framework. The participants were 10 software development professionals who were actively engaged in delivering estimates of effort on software development requests in South Texas in the United States. Data were collected from 10 software development professionals in 5 different organizations. Additionally, 23 organizational documents were gathered and reviewed. Thematic analysis was used to identify codes and themes. Prominent themes were (a) defining and decomposing requirements, (b) referencing historical data, (c) identifying risks and unknowns, and (d) fostering communication, collaboration, and a consensus. A key recommendation is for software developers to ensure requirements are defined and decomposed by evaluating the request and breaking the request into manageable pieces to understand the effort required to complete the task. Implications for positive social change include improving morale, work-life balance, alignment of expectations, and software quality