Tourism, transport, and land use: a dynamic impact assessment for Kaohsiung’s Asia New Bay Area

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology for analysing the causal relations between public transportation development, tourism and land use by combining System Dynamics (SD) with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM). It is applied to illustrate the quantitative and spatial effect of the two phases Light Rail Transit (LRT) development in Asia New Bay Area, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. This paper also furthers the application of the ABM spatial information as interactive variables in the stocks-flow model. The simulation results support that development policies of LRT are significant to the future tourism in Asia New Bay Area, while the under debate second phase of LRT is estimated to raise the number of visitors in long term by alleviating the deteriorating road traffic congestion. This policy-oriented simulation can serve as a reference to the decision-makers towards the future management of LRT

Modelling revenue generation in a dynamically priced mobile telephony service

Dynamic pricing has been used extensively in specific markets for many years but recent years have seen an interest in the utilization of this approach for the deployment of novel and attractive tariff structures for mobile communication services. This paper describes the development and operation of an agent based model (ABM) for subscriber behavior in a dynamically priced mobile telephony network. The design of the ABM was based on an analysis of real call detail records recorded in a Uganda mobile telephony network in which dynamic pricing was deployed. The ABM includes components which simulate subscriber calling behavior, mobility within the network and social linkages. Using this model, this paper reports on an investigation of a number of alternative strategies for the dynamic pricing algorithm which indicate that the network operator will likely experience revenue losses ranging from a 5 %, when the pricing algorithm is based on offering high value subscriber cohort enhanced random discounts compared to a lower value subscriber cohort, to 30 %, when the priding algorithm results in the discount on offer in a cell being inversely proportional to the contemporary cell load. Additionally, the model appears to suggest that the use of optimization algorithms to control the level of discount offered in cells would likely result in discount simply converging to a “no-discount” scenario. Finally, commentary is offered on additional factors which need to be considered when interpreting the results of this work such as the impact of subscriber churn on the size of the subscriber base and the technical and marketing challenges of deploying the various dynamic pricing algorithms which have been investigated

Simulation of Dengue Outbreak in Thailand

The dengue virus has become widespread worldwide in recent decades. It has no specific treatment and affects more than 40% of the entire population in the world. In Thailand, dengue has been a health concern for more than half a century. The highest number of cases in one year was 174,285 in 1987, leading to 1,007 deaths. In the present day, dengue is distributed throughout the entire country. Therefore, dengue has become a major challenge for public health in terms of both prevention and control of outbreaks. Different methodologies and ways of dealing with dengue outbreaks have been put forward by researchers. Computational models and simulations play an important role, as they have the ability to help researchers and officers in public health gain a greater understanding of the virus's epidemic activities. In this context, this dissertation presents a new framework, Modified Agent-Based Modeling (mABM), a hybrid platform between a mathematical model and a computational model, to simulate a dengue outbreak in human and mosquito populations. This framework improves on the realism of former models by utilizing the reported data from several Thai government organizations, such as the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), the National Statistical Office, and others. Additionally, its implementation takes into account the geography of Thailand, as well as synthetic mosquito and synthetic human populations. mABM can be used to represent human behavior in a large population across variant distances by specifying demographic factors and assigning mobility patterns for weekdays, weekends, and holidays for the synthetic human population. The mosquito dynamic population model (MDP), which is a component of the mABM framework, is used for representing the synthetic mosquito population dynamic and their ecology by integrating the regional model to capture the effect of dengue outbreak. The two synthetic populations can be linked to each other for the purpose of presenting their interactions, and the Local Stochastic Contact Model for Dengue (LSCM-DEN) is utilized. For validation, the number of cases from the experiment is compared to reported cases from the Thailand Vector Borne Disease Bureau for the selected years. This framework facilitates model configuration for sensitivity analysis by changing parameters, such as travel routes and seasonal temperatures. The effects of these parameters were studied and analyzed for an improved understanding of dengue outbreak dynamics

Multi-agent Spatiotemporal Simulation of Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operation

Autonomous vehicle fleets, consisting of self-driving vehicles, are at the forefront of transportation innovation. The appearance of autonomous vehicles (AVs) provides a new solution for traffic problems and a new market for transportation network companies such as DiDi and Uber. Conducting simulations in the present is indeed crucial to prepare for the eventual operation of autonomous vehicles, as their widespread adoption is expected to occur in the near future. This research adopts an Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) approach to understand and optimize the performance of autonomous vehicle systems. Moreover, Geographic Information System (GIS) technology also plays a crucial role in enhancing the effectiveness and accuracy of the simulation process. GIS enables the representation and manipulation of geospatial data, such as road networks, land-use patterns, and population distribution. The combination of ABM and GIS allows for the incorporation of real-world geographic data, providing a realistic and geographically accurate environment for the agents in the virtual environment. In this thesis, the multi-agent spatiotemporal simulation is conducted by the GAMA platform. The model simulates the behaviour and interactions of individual agents, which are fleet agents and commuters, to observe the emergent behaviour of the entire system. Within the experiment, different scenarios are considered for both people and fleets to explore a range of approaches and strategies. These scenarios aim to evaluate the effectiveness of various approaches in meeting dynamic commute needs and optimizing fleet operations. By simulating these different scenarios and analyzing their outcomes, the study aims to provide insights into the improvement of fleet size and deployment in autonomous vehicle systems. The ultimate goal is to identify effective strategies that lead to optimized fleet size in different scenarios, reduced idling time and emission, improved traffic management, and overall more efficient and sustainable autonomous vehicle systems

Automated generation of geometrically-precise and semantically-informed virtual geographic environnements populated with spatially-reasoning agents

La Géo-Simulation Multi-Agent (GSMA) est un paradigme de modélisation et de simulation de phénomènes dynamiques dans une variété de domaines d'applications tels que le domaine du transport, le domaine des télécommunications, le domaine environnemental, etc. La GSMA est utilisée pour étudier et analyser des phénomènes qui mettent en jeu un grand nombre d'acteurs simulés (implémentés par des agents) qui évoluent et interagissent avec une représentation explicite de l'espace qu'on appelle Environnement Géographique Virtuel (EGV). Afin de pouvoir interagir avec son environnement géographique qui peut être dynamique, complexe et étendu (à grande échelle), un agent doit d'abord disposer d'une représentation détaillée de ce dernier. Les EGV classiques se limitent généralement à une représentation géométrique du monde réel laissant de côté les informations topologiques et sémantiques qui le caractérisent. Ceci a pour conséquence d'une part de produire des simulations multi-agents non plausibles, et, d'autre part, de réduire les capacités de raisonnement spatial des agents situés. La planification de chemin est un exemple typique de raisonnement spatial dont un agent pourrait avoir besoin dans une GSMA. Les approches classiques de planification de chemin se limitent à calculer un chemin qui lie deux positions situées dans l'espace et qui soit sans obstacle. Ces approches ne prennent pas en compte les caractéristiques de l'environnement (topologiques et sémantiques), ni celles des agents (types et capacités). Les agents situés ne possèdent donc pas de moyens leur permettant d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires sur l'environnement virtuel pour pouvoir prendre une décision spatiale informée. Pour répondre à ces limites, nous proposons une nouvelle approche pour générer automatiquement des Environnements Géographiques Virtuels Informés (EGVI) en utilisant les données fournies par les Systèmes d'Information Géographique (SIG) enrichies par des informations sémantiques pour produire des GSMA précises et plus réalistes. De plus, nous présentons un algorithme de planification hiérarchique de chemin qui tire avantage de la description enrichie et optimisée de l'EGVI pour fournir aux agents un chemin qui tient compte à la fois des caractéristiques de leur environnement virtuel et de leurs types et capacités. Finalement, nous proposons une approche pour la gestion des connaissances sur l'environnement virtuel qui vise à supporter la prise de décision informée et le raisonnement spatial des agents situés