Instantiated mixed effects modeling of Alzheimer's disease markers

The assessment and prediction of a subject's current and future risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer's disease are of great interest in both the design of clinical trials as well as in clinical decision making. Exploring the longitudinal trajectory of markers related to neurodegeneration is an important task when selecting subjects for treatment in trials and the clinic, in the evaluation of early disease indicators and the monitoring of disease progression. Given that there is substantial intersubject variability, models that attempt to describe marker trajectories for a whole population will likely lack specificity for the representation of individual patients. Therefore, we argue here that individualized models provide a more accurate alternative that can be used for tasks such as population stratification and a subject-specific prognosis. In the work presented here, mixed effects modeling is used to derive global and individual marker trajectories for a training population. Test subject (new patient) specific models are then instantiated using a stratified “marker signature” that defines a subpopulation of similar cases within the training database. From this subpopulation, personalized models of the expected trajectory of several markers are subsequently estimated for unseen patients. These patient specific models of markers are shown to provide better predictions of time-to-conversion to Alzheimer's disease than population based models

Instantiated mixed effects modeling of Alzheimer's disease markers

The assessment and prediction of a subject's current and future risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer's disease are of great interest in both the design of clinical trials as well as in clinical decision making. Exploring the longitudinal trajectory of markers related to neurodegeneration is an important task when selecting subjects for treatment in trials and the clinic, in the evaluation of early disease indicators and the monitoring of disease progression. Given that there is substantial intersubject variability, models that attempt to describe marker trajectories for a whole population will likely lack specificity for the representation of individual patients. Therefore, we argue here that individualized models provide a more accurate alternative that can be used for tasks such as population stratification and a subject-specific prognosis. In the work presented here, mixed effects modeling is used to derive global and individual marker trajectories for a training population. Test subject (new patient) specific models are then instantiated using a stratified “marker signature” that defines a subpopulation of similar cases within the training database. From this subpopulation, personalized models of the expected trajectory of several markers are subsequently estimated for unseen patients. These patient specific models of markers are shown to provide better predictions of time-to-conversion to Alzheimer's disease than population based models

Investigation of Multi-dimensional Tensor Multi-task Learning for Modeling Alzheimer's Disease Progression

Machine learning (ML) techniques for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression can significantly assist clinicians and researchers in constructing effective AD prevention and treatment strategies. The main constraints on the performance of current ML approaches are prediction accuracy and stability problems in medical small dataset scenarios, monotonic data formats (loss of multi-dimensional knowledge of the data and loss of correlation knowledge between biomarkers) and biomarker interpretability limitations. This thesis investigates how multi-dimensional information and knowledge from biomarker data integrated with multi-task learning approaches to predict AD progression. Firstly, a novel similarity-based quantification approach is proposed with two components: multi-dimensional knowledge vector construction and amalgamated magnitude-direction quantification of brain structural variation, which considers both the magnitude and directional correlations of structural variation between brain biomarkers and encodes the quantified data as a third-order tensor to address the problem of monotonic data form. Secondly, multi-task learning regression algorithms with the ability to integrate multi-dimensional tensor data and mine MRI data for spatio-temporal structural variation information and knowledge were designed and constructed to improve the accuracy, stability and interpretability of AD progression prediction in medical small dataset scenarios. The algorithm consists of three components: supervised symmetric tensor decomposition for extracting biomarker latent factors, tensor multi-task learning regression and algorithmic regularisation terms. The proposed algorithm aims to extract a set of first-order latent factors from the raw data, each represented by its first biomarker, second biomarker and patient sample dimensions, to elucidate potential factors affecting the variability of the data in an interpretable manner and can be utilised as predictor variables for training the prediction model that regards the prediction of each patient as a task, with each task sharing a set of biomarker latent factors obtained from tensor decomposition. Knowledge sharing between tasks improves the generalisation ability of the model and addresses the problem of sparse medical data. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves superior accuracy and stability in predicting various cognitive scores of AD progression compared to single-task learning, benchmarks and state-of-the-art multi-task regression methods. The proposed approach identifies brain structural variations in patients and the important brain biomarker correlations revealed by the experiments can be utilised as potential indicators for AD early identification