Geographical interdependence, international trade and economic dynamics: the Chinese and German solar energy industries

The trajectories of the German and Chinese photovoltaic industries differ significantly yet are strongly interdependent. Germany has seen a rapid growth in market demand and a strong increase in production, especially in the less developed eastern half of the country. Chinese growth has been export driven. These contrasting trajectories reflect the roles of market creation, investment and credit and the drivers of innovation and competitiveness. Consequent differences in competiveness have generated major trade disputes

An innovation-focused roadmap for a sustainable global photovoltaic industry

The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry has undergone a dramatic evolution over the past decade, growing at an average rate of 48 percent per year to a global market size of 31. GW in 2012, and with the price of crystalline-silicon PV module as low as $0.72/W in September 2013. To examine this evolution we built a comprehensive dataset from 2000 to 2012 for the PV industries in the United States, China, Japan, and Germany, which we used to develop a model to explain the dynamics among innovation, manufacturing, and market. A two-factor learning curve model is constructed to make explicit the effect of innovation from economies of scale. The past explosive growth has resulted in an oversupply problem, which is undermining the effectiveness of "demand-pull" policies that could otherwise spur innovation. To strengthen the industry we find that a policy shift is needed to balance the excitement and focus on market forces with a larger commitment to research and development funding. We use this work to form a set of recommendations and a roadmap that will enable a next wave of innovation and thus sustainable growth of the PV industry into a mainstay of the global energy economy. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd

The International Adoption of Photovoltaic Energy Conversion Is Japan a Lead Market?

This paper explores on the basis of a case study on photovoltaic energy conversion (PV) whether countries can actively create a lead market for new technology. Solar energy conversion has fascinated people and politicians as an alternative to oil and nuclear energy. Since the discovery of photovoltaic cells that directly convert solar irradiation into electricity it is expected that the mass market for photovoltaic energy conversion will emerge soon. With lots of sunny, at and vacant regions and an electricity-hungry and high-income population, the United States looked to be the natural lead market for solar energy. Yet, two countries that are less favorably endowed with solar energy, Japan and Germany, embarked on establishing a mass market for solar energy conversion through high public subsidies. This paper discusses the prospect of these two countries to set off a bandwagon among all other nations? Reviewing the traditional mechanisms of the international diffusion of innovations, the tentative answer given in this paper is that while local markets have been created, this has not ensured the international success of PV. For its international success, it would be essential to demonstrate that the adoption of PV systems is continuing without subsidies. With the energy production cost of solar cells unlikely to come close to that of conventionally generated electricity in the foreseeable future, the United States looks like the test market for solar energy, where the fate of PV will be answered.Eco Innovations, International Diffusion, Photovoltaic

Solar-thermal and hybrid photovoltaic-thermal systems for renewable heating

Grantham Briefing Papers analyse climate change and environmental research linked to work at Imperial College London, setting it in the context of national and international policy and the future research agenda. This paper and other Grantham publications are available from: www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publicationsThis paper looks at the barriers and opportunities for the mass deployment of solar-thermal technologies and offers a vision for the future of solar-thermal systems. HEADLINES: -Heat constitutes about half of total global energy demand. Solar heat offers key advantages over other renewable sources for meeting this demand through distributed, integrated systems. -Solar heat is a mature sustainable energy technology capable of mass deployment. There is significant scope for increasing the installed solar heat capacity in Europe. -Only a few European countries are close to reaching the EU target of 1 m2 of solar-thermal installations per person. -One key challenge for the further development of the solar-thermal market arises from issues related to the intermittency of the solar resource, and the requirement for storage and/or backup systems. The former increases investment costs and limits adaptability. -An analysis of EU countries with good market development, suggests that obligation schemes are the best policy option for maximising installations. These do not present a direct cost to the public budget, and determine the growth of the local industry in the long term. -Solar-thermal collectors can be combined with photovoltaic (PV) modules to produce hybrid PV-thermal (PV-T) collectors. These can deliver both heat and electricity simultaneously from the same installed area and at a higher overall efficiency compared to individual solar-thermal and PV panels installed separately. --Hybrid PV-T technology provides a particularly promising solution when roof space is limited or when heat and electricity are required at the same time.Preprin

Survey of Photovoltaic Industry and Policy in Germany and China

As building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) solutions can meet around one-third of electricity demand in Germany and China, both countries are interested in exploring this potential. PV technologies have demonstrated significant price reductions, but large-scale global application of PV requires further technology improvements and cost reductions along the value chain. We analyze policies in Germany and China, including deployment support, investment support for manufacturing plants and R&D support measures, and we survey the industrial actors they can encourage to pursue innovation. While deployment support has been successful, investment support for manufacturing in these nations has not been sufficiently tied to innovation incentives, and R&D support has been comparatively weak. The paper concludes with a discussion of the opportunities for global policy coordination.Photovoltaics, Technology Policy, Innovation, Investment Support

Toward a Sunny Future? Global Integration in the Solar PV Industry

Policymakers seem to face a trade-off when designing national trade and investment policies related to clean energy sectors. They have pledged to address climate change and accelerate the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies, which would benefit from increased global integration, but they are also tempted to nurture and protect domestic clean technology markets to create green jobs at home and ensure domestic political support for more ambitious climate policies. This paper analyzes the global integration of the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector and looks in detail at the industry’s recent growth patterns, industry cost structure, trade and investment patterns, government support policies and employment generation potential. In order to further stimulate both further growth of the solar industry and local job creation without constructing new trade and investment barriers, we recommend the following: (1) Governments must provide sufficient and predictable long-term support to solar energy deployment. Such long-term frameworks bring investments forward and encourage cost cutting and innovation, so that government support can decrease over time. A price on carbon emissions would provide an additional long-term market signal and likely accelerate this process. (2) Policymakers should focus not on solely the manufacturing jobs in the solar industry, but on the total number of jobs that could possibly be created including those in research, project development, installation, operations and maintenance. (3) Global integration and broader solar PV technology deployment through lower costs can be encouraged by keeping global solar PV markets open. Protectionist policies risk slowing the development of global solar markets and provoking retaliatory actions in other sectors. Lowering existing trade barriers—by abolishing tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers and harmonizing industry standards—would create a positive policy environment for further global integration.Solar PV, climate change, renewable energy, government support, green protectionism, green jobs, global integration

How well does Learning-by-doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-free Energy Technology?

The incorporation of experience curves has enhanced the treatment of technological change in models used to evaluate the cost of climate and energy policies. However, the set of activities that experience curves are assumed to capture is much broader than the set that can be characterized by learning-by-doing, the primary connection between experience curves and economic theory. How accurately do experience curves describe observed technological change? This study examines the case of photovoltaics (PV), a potentially important climate stabilization technology with robust technology dynamics. Empirical data are assembled to populate a simple engineering-based model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV over the past three decades. The results indicate that learning from experience only weakly explains change in the most important cost-reducing factors— plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. They point to other explanatory variables to include in future models. Future work might also evaluate the potential for efficiency gains from policies that rely less on ‘riding down the learning curve’ and more on creating incentives for firms to make investments in the types of cost-reducing activities quantified in this study.Learning-by-doing, Experience Curves, Learning Curves, Climate Policy

Transforming the energy system - the evolution of the German technological system for solar cells

To improve our understanding of processes involved in the formation and growth of new technological systems in the energy sector and to identify the associated key challenges for policy makers managing the transformation process, we examine the development of the German technological system for solar cells over the past twenty-five years. We use a 'technological system' approach in which we will trace the evolution of actors, networks and institutions that have a bearing on the generation and diffusion of solar cells. An initial preparatory stage lasted until about 1989 and was mainly characterised by knowledge build up induced by a Federal RDD programme. This was followed by a second stage characterised by political struggle over the regulatory framework and subsequently the beginning of a virtuous circle for solar cells. In the concluding discussion, we emphasise four key features of the evolution of the technological system: (1) the role of a coalition of system builders which successfully influenced the regulatory framework so that markets could be formed: (2) the considerable length of the learning period and the large number of actors which need to learn; (3) the importance of policies which form early markets (not only early niche markets, but beyond those) as only markets may induce firms to enter and learn, and (4) the need to run market formation policies simultaneous to policies which maintain technological variety.new technology, growth and formation, solar cells, Germany

Building pathways of pro-poor energy access: PV-powered electricity services in Kenya

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