4,034 research outputs found
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
Crowdsourcing Cybersecurity: Cyber Attack Detection using Social Media
Social media is often viewed as a sensor into various societal events such as
disease outbreaks, protests, and elections. We describe the use of social media
as a crowdsourced sensor to gain insight into ongoing cyber-attacks. Our
approach detects a broad range of cyber-attacks (e.g., distributed denial of
service (DDOS) attacks, data breaches, and account hijacking) in an
unsupervised manner using just a limited fixed set of seed event triggers. A
new query expansion strategy based on convolutional kernels and dependency
parses helps model reporting structure and aids in identifying key event
characteristics. Through a large-scale analysis over Twitter, we demonstrate
that our approach consistently identifies and encodes events, outperforming
existing methods.Comment: 13 single column pages, 5 figures, submitted to KDD 201
Mapping (Dis-)Information Flow about the MH17 Plane Crash
Digital media enables not only fast sharing of information, but also
disinformation. One prominent case of an event leading to circulation of
disinformation on social media is the MH17 plane crash. Studies analysing the
spread of information about this event on Twitter have focused on small,
manually annotated datasets, or used proxys for data annotation. In this work,
we examine to what extent text classifiers can be used to label data for
subsequent content analysis, in particular we focus on predicting pro-Russian
and pro-Ukrainian Twitter content related to the MH17 plane crash. Even though
we find that a neural classifier improves over a hashtag based baseline,
labeling pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian content with high precision remains a
challenging problem. We provide an error analysis underlining the difficulty of
the task and identify factors that might help improve classification in future
work. Finally, we show how the classifier can facilitate the annotation task
for human annotators
Discovering visual concept structure with sparse and incomplete tags
This work was partially supported by the China Scholarship Council, Vision Semantics Limited, and Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship Programme (NA150459)
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