양방향 외국인직접투자가 중국의 국내 과학기술 발전에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제통상전공), 2021.8. 조문자.The 21st century is the era of knowledge economy. The development of science and technology is playing an increasingly irreplaceable part in the economic growth and the improvement of comprehensive power of a country. From starting the reform and opening up, China has become the developing country with the largest number of foreign capital absorption for many years. In addition, the situation of absorbing foreign capital in central and western regions of China has been improving, and the number of large projects using foreign capital has achieved rapid growth. So far, after the transition from exploration to transformation, China has become one of the main countries of foreign investment, but we can find that the total growth of China's OFDI cannot fully reflect the real situation and the gap with developed countries. However, in view of the requirements of high-quality economic development, the development potential of China's OFDI is still large. For Chinese enterprises, especially private enterprises, there is still a big gap between them and world-class enterprises in terms of development history, technical reserve, high-end technical talent stock and R & D capacity. In order to make up for these shortcomings, enterprises need to take a global view, learn and absorb corresponding technologies, or attract high-end talents through OFDI merger or equity participation in the world's leading similar enterprises. This paper uses the organic combination model of two-way FDI to supplement the systematic research on the strategy of "bringing in" and "going out" of China, and examines the overall impact of two-way FDI on China's science and technology progress. On this basis, this dissertation takes China’s provincial panel data between 2009 and 2018 for econometric analysis, and combines the IV-2SLS regression method for robustness test, and conducts comparative studies at the national level and among different regions respectively, and makes an objective evaluation on the impact of two-way FDI on the science and technology progress of 30 provinces in China except Tibet. The results are as follows: 1. On the whole, technology spillover caused by FDI has a significant promoting effect on domestic technology progress, while the OFDI inversion spillover can restrain the domestic technological progress. This shows that on the whole, China cannot promote domestic technology progress through the reverse technology spillover of OFDI, but stays in the stage of exporting technology to underdeveloped areas. 2. From the regression results of the three regions, the promotion of technology spillover through FDI to domestic technology progress is weakening from east to west; while the technology spillover formed by OFDI has weakened the promotion of domestic technology progress from west to East. 3. The implication from the results is that when China develops the international strategy of "bringing in" and "going out" at the same time, it should speed up the improvement and optimization of the screening standards of OFDI projects while maintaining the high standard of screening FDI projects, so as to strengthen the strength of reverse technology spillover from OFDI.본 논문은 FDI와 OFDI의 유기적 결합 모델을 사용하여 중국의 “Bringing in”과 “going out” 전략에 대한 체계적인 연구를 보완하고 양방향 FDI가 중국의 과학 기술 발전에 미치는 전반적인 영향을 평가합니다. 이를 바탕으로 본 논문은 계량 경제 분석 수행을 위해 2009 년부터 2018 년까지 중국의 지방 패널 데이터를 사용하고, 견고성 테스트를 위해 IV-2SLS 회귀 방법을 결합하고, 국가 수준에서의 지역별 비교 연구를 각각 수행하여 티베트를 제외한 중국 30 개성의 과학 기술 발전에 양방향 FDI가 미치는 영향에 대해 객관적으로 평가합니다. 결과는 다음과 같습니다. 1. 전반적으로 FDI로 인한 기술 유출은 국내 기술 진보에 큰 영향을 미치지만 OFDI의 역 기술 유출 강화로 인해 이러한 추진 효과는 약화될 것으로 보입니다. OFDI의 역 기술 유출은 국내 기술 발전을 억제할 수 있지만 FDI 유출의 증가는 억제 효과를 약화시킬 것입니다. 이는 전체적으로 중국이 OFDI의 역 기술 유출로 국내 기술 발전을 추진할 수 없지만 저개발 지역에 기술을 수출하는 단계에 머물고 있음을 보여줍니다. 2. 3개 지역의 회귀 결과에서 동부 지역의 경제 발전과 지리적 이점이 매우 두드러집니다. FDI를 통한 국내 기술 발전으로의 기술 유출 촉진은 동쪽에서 서쪽으로 약화되고 있습니다. 동부 지역은 첨단 기술과 신기술을 흡수하여 자체 개발을 촉진할 수 있는 반면 중서부 지역은 과학 기술 수준에서 자국과 선진국 간의 큰 차이로 인해 수익을 창출 할 수 없습니다. OFDI에 의해 형성된 기술 유출은 서방에서 동양으로의 국내 기술 발전 촉진을 약화시켰습니다. 현재는 서부 지역이 이로부터 전반적인 이익을 얻을 때입니다. 3. 회귀 분석 결과가 시사하는 바는 중국이 “bringing in”과 “going out” 국제 전략을 동시에 개발할 때, FDI 프로젝트의 높은 심사 기준을 유지하면서 OFDI 프로젝트 심사 기준의 향상 및 최적화를 가속화할 것이라는 것입니다. 동시에 국내 R & D 투자와 인적 자원의 품질 최적화는 중국, 특히 중서부 지역의 미래 과학 기술 발전에 중요한 역할을 합니다.I. INTRODUCTION 1 1. BACKGROUND 1 1-1. Technology Spillover Effect 2 1-1-1. FDI Technology Spillover 3 1-1-2. OFDI Reverse Technology Spillover 5 1-2. The Development of FDI in China 6 1-3. The Development of OFDI in China 8 1-4. The Development of Science and Technology in China 10 2. OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY 12 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 14 1. FDI AND TECHNOLOGY SPILLOVER 14 2. OFDI AND REVERSE TECHNOLOGY SPILLOVER 15 3.TWO-WAY FDI AND TECHNOLOGY SPILLOVER 16 III. MECHANISM ANALYSIS 18 Ⅳ. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 21 1. ANALYTICAL METHOD AND DATA SELECTION 21 2. VARIABLES 22 3. DATA DESCRIPTION 24 4. HYPOTHESIS 26 V. EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 27 1. FULL SAMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 27 2. FULL SAMPLE REGRESSION ON PROVINCIAL DIFFERENCES 29 3. COMPARISON OF REGRESSION RESULTS BY REGION 30 3-1. Analysis of Regression Results in the Eastern Region 31 3-2. Analysis of Regression Results in the Central Region 32 3-3. Analysis of Regression Results in the Western Region 34 3-4. Comparison of Different Regions 36 4. ROBUSTNESS TEST 38 VI. CONCLUSION AND LIMITATIONS 41 1. CONCLUSION 41 2. IMPLICATIONS 44 3. LIMITATIONS 44 REFERENCES 46 APPENDIX 49 국문초록 55석

Asymmetric Game Analysis of China's Equipment Manufacturing Industry Hollowing-Out

With the rapid development of global economic integration, industrial hollowing-out problem has been paid much attention by foreign and domestic scholars. Based on the current situation of China's equipment manufacturing industry, the asymmetric game model is created in this paper which integrates the strong multinational companies and the weak Chinese local companies into a united system. Considering the influence of two main factors affecting unit production cost, technology and production factor cost, importance is attached on analyzing equilibrium solutions of the asymmetric game between multinational company and Chinese local company in R&D stage and processing stage of global value chain, so as to explain the formation mechanism of China's equipment manufacturing industry hollowing-out. Suggestions for breaking through the hollowing-out obstacle are put forward accordingly

Impact of Financial Development and Foreign Direct Investment on Investment Allocation Efficiency in China : An Evidence Based the Industrial Panel Data

Using China’s provincial panel data set containing 17 industries from 2006 to 2012, we assess the effect of financial development and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the allocation of China’s industrial investment, based on two investment allocation efficiency indicators, the industrial sales elasticity of total fixed assets and the industrial value added elasticity of total fixed assets, respectively. When using the sales elasticity of total fixed assets to indicate investment allocation efficieng, we find that FDI and stock market activities had negative effects while investment allocation efficiency was spurred by domestic bank loan whose impact was largely reduced by FDI, and loan to the private sector had a mild influence on investment allocation efficiency. Contradictory results are obtained by using industrial value added elasticity of total fixed assets as the indicator of the investment allocation efficiency, which could be attributed to the fact that China\u27s FDI was below the minimum threshold value to fully promote the optimization of domestic bank loan but reached that for loans to the private sector. Furthermore, stock market has a positive effect on investment allocation efficiency and barely any crowding out effect on FDI. Therefore, policy-makers should carefully consider the economic condition, the development plan and location when choosing the optimal investment scheme, and gradually switch the sales-driven investment strategy to that aiming at increasing industrial value-added

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Income Convergence in China - A Spatial Panel Data Analysis

After taking into account the spatial dependence effects in the panel data consisting of all 31 provinces, direct-controlled municipalities, and autonomous regions in China between the years 1998 and 2017, it found significant spatial autocorrelation effects in both traditional absolute and conditional β income convergence models. At the national level, using the spatial econometric models (Spatial Error Model for absolute convergence and Spatial Durbin Model for conditional convergence), the analysis shows that in the past 19 years from 1999 to 2017, there is no absolute β income convergence. However, there is conditional β income convergence after controlling for all growth factors, while the positive effect of fixed asset investment on regional economic growth is significant, and the effect of population growth is significantly negative. The other growth factors such as FDI inflow, export, and higher education enrollment were surprisingly found no statistically significant effects on regional economic growth. From regional level (Spatial Durbin Model and Spatial Lag Model), there is no conditional β income convergence within each four economic regions. Nonetheless, the northeast region showed an income divergence trend, where only the fixed asset investment is positively significant. This study results imply that China should continue to improve fixed asset investment and control population growth to stimulate regional economic growth and income convergence

An Empirical Study of the Impact of the Change in Real Effective Exchange Rate on China\u27s Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment

With the development of worldwide economic and globalization, China plays an important role in international trade. Since the reform and openness and five years\u27 plan , China’s economy became the second largest in the world. During the period of economic development, Foreign Direct Investment became an important part of improving market socialism in China. In this paper, I use monthly data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and the index of real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese RMB for the period from Jan 2008 to Nov 2017. I develop a statistical model to test the causality between FDI and REER in order to make reasonable recommendations based on the research findings from the perspective of the Chinese government

Research on Resource Allocation Effect of China's OFDI on Equipment Manufacturing Industry

Based on the panel data and time series data of China's 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) from 2004 to 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of China's OFDI on the resource allocation effect of equipment manufacturing industry through regression model. The empirical results show that China's OFDI has a significant positive effect on the resource allocation effect of equipment manufacturing industry, and with every unit of China's OFDI increasing, the profit margin of main business (PMB) of the equipment manufacturing industry will increase 0.087 percentage points. From the regional point of view, the growth of OFDI in Northeast China has a significant positive impact on the PMB of the equipment manufacturing industry, and its positive impact is the largest, followed by the eastern region, and the central and western regions have a significant negative impact. From the perspective of OFDI gradient, China's forward OFDI to developing countries and reverse OFDI to developed countries have a significant positive impact on the PMB of equipment manufacturing industry, and the impact of forward OFDI is more significant. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the efficiency of China's equipment manufacturing industry

Modeling Pollution Control and Performance in China’s Provinces

The paper constructs a pollution control performance (PCP) evaluation model by introducing the norm of n-dimensional space. The PCP of 30 Chinese provinces for the period of 2003–2008 is evaluated based on the model and the factors influencing China's pollution control are further examined. It is found that: (1) China's PCP has improved rapidly but there is a large regional imbalance with the PCP of Eastern China being much better than that of Central and Western China; (2) to improve the level of China's PCP, government policies should consider industrial structure adjustment, restricting industry entries and increased investment in pollution abatement and R&D

Urban services growth: Influencing factors and its effect on regional growth in China

Urban economic success depends on the growth of its services and there are various factors influencing urban services growth. However, earlier studies mostly focus on the demand and supply factors. Factors, such as the institutional environment and services spatial agglomeration, although are important in the context of urban services growth in China, are practically less emphasized. Thus, this study analyzed the contributions of demand, supply, institutional environment, and services spatial agglomeration as factors significance for urban services growth, using the hierarchical multiple regression. The Panel Unit Root Test, Panel Co-integration Model and Panel Vector Error Correction Model were used to examine the short-run and long-run effects of urban services growth on regional economic growth in China. The findings of the present study show that the demand, supply and services spatial agglomeration contributed significantly to urban services growth. However, the institutional environment had relatively smaller contributions, compared to other factors. The Error Correction Model indicated a short-run relationship, while the Panel Co-integration Model revealed the existence of a long-run relationship between urban services growth and regional economic growth in China. In conclusion, the government should implement strategies towards a more balanced urban services growth with specific priority on strategies to expand the demand and supply for urban services, improving residents’ income, to promote urbanization, and deepen division of labor as well as to increase the quality and quantity of factor inputs in urban services. Indeed, future strategies should focus more on measures to promote urban services agglomeration, while improving the urban services marketization and their openness leve

A macroeconomic perspective on the rise of second-tier cities in the national and globalizing context of China

Since China’s economic reforms in the late 1970s, foreign investments have initially flooded the so-called “first-tier cities” including Shanghai, Beijing, or even Shenzhen or Guangzhou. Due to rising labour costs, growing constraints over natural resources, long-term inflation and environmental issues among others (Zhuang et al. 2012; Zuojun, 2012), they have been undertaking structural economic adjustments in order to shift from a “late-developing advantage” to a “first-mover advantage” model. This requires concentrating resources on modern services industry, strategic emerging industries and entrepreneurship rather than relying on foreign investments for technology, management skills and know-how (Liu, 2015). This process of economic restructuring and upgrading has initiated industrial relocation into the hinterland. As a consequence, several cities have emerged as new engines of economic growth in the past decade: Many second-tier cities have several millions inhabitants, the most performing achieved above 15% economic growth over the past decade, and many of them have been benefiting from massive public investments and preferential policies in order to accelerate their development path (China Briefing, 2010). Yet, the definition of a second-tier city is highly contextual and rather depends on the geographical scale we look at it. Therefore, this innovative research paper proposes to study the rise of second-tier cites in the national and globalizing context of China. In the national context, we undertake a comparative macroeconomic analysis between first-tier and second-tier cities in order to understand if the general environment is conducive to business investments. In the globalizing context, we focus our attention on the rise of secondary cities in Yangtze River Delta, a large emerging global city-region. More precisely, we study how Shanghai has become an urban vector for FDI into secondary cities, and thus stimulating their economic development by promoting industrial restructuring, upgrading and relocation. Ultimately, we conclude that the socio-economic development of second-tier cities are led by the first-tier city, which together benefit the overall sustainable development of China. In such a fast-changing and highly competitive business environment, second-tier cities shall be fully integrated to the strategic expansion plan of companies operating in China. Whether to achieve competiveness and cost optimization to better serve international markets or to increase revenue by supplying goods or services to Chinese consumers, decision makers shall take active anticipation and think ahead, so that the company can stand out in the market very rapidly

Essays on endogenous technical change in climate policy analysis

This thesis consists of four papers studying endogenous technical change (TC) in climate policy analysis. The first paper provides a conceptual framework of analyzing the mechanism through which TC can be induced by climate mitigation policies. The second paper develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) numerical model to quantitatively analyze the effect of endogenous TC on the timing and cost of carbon abatements. The third paper develops a multi-region modelling framework to examine the mechanism of international technology diffusion and its effect on domestic carbon savings. The fourth paper analyzes the mechanism of international technology coordination resulting from reciprocal cross-nation knowledge spillovers and its effect on global climate governance. The first paper, "Revisiting the mechanism of endogenous technical change for climate policy analysis", aims to reconcile the diverging specifications of endogenous TC in existing climate policy modeling literature. Drawing on the theory of R&D-induced TC, I provide a generalized framework to analyze the mechanism through which TC can be induced by climate mitigation policies. The second paper, "Can technological innovation help China take on its climate responsibility? A computable general equilibrium analysis", examines the effectiveness of China's indigenous R&D and technological innovation to cut its carbon emissions. The mechanism of endogenous TC is incorporated into a CGE numerical model. R&D investment and knowledge creation is modeled as the endogenous behavior of profit-seeking private producers. The accumulated stocks of productive knowledge are applied in a production process to induce the rate and bias of production TC. The third paper, "Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modelling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework", aims to examine the effect of globalization, particularly international technology diffusion, on reducing China's domestic carbon emissions. The single-country CGE model is extended into a multi-region framework, where both indigenous R&D and foreign technology diffusion are explicitly considered as two sources of endogenous TC for domestic carbon savings. The model systematically describes foreign technology diffusion through three diffusion channels of trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and disembodied knowledge spillovers, with an elaborate treatment of local knowledge absorptive capacity. The fourth paper, "International knowledge spillover and technology externality: Why multilateral R&D coordination matter for global climate governance", investigates the mechanism of international technology cooperation and its effect on lowering global climate mitigation cost, with an aim of exploring the potentials of complementing international emission-based agreements with technology cooperation in the post-2012 climate regime. For that purpose, this paper firstly presents an analytical framework that describes how the mechanism of international R&D coordination can work for climate change mitigation. This mechanism is then quantitatively examined in a multi-region global numerical model that explicitly considers multilateral knowledge spillovers and resulting technology externality for global climate governance