On bidding markets: the role of competition

This paper analyzes the effects of industrial concentration on bidding behaviour and hence, on the seller´s expected proceeds. These effects are studied under the CIPI model, an affiliated value set-up that nests a variety of valuation and information environments. We formally decompose the revenue effects coming from less competition into four types: a competition effect, an inference effect, a winner´s curse effect and a sampling effect. The properties of these effects are discussed and conditions for (non) monotonicity of both the equilibrium bid and revenue are stated. Our results suggest that it is more likely that the seller benefits from less competition in markets with more complete valuation and information structures

Testing for the Monotone Likelihood Ratio Assumption

Monotonicity of the likelihood ratio for conditioned densities is a common technical assumption in economic models. But we have found no empirical tests for its plausibility. This paper develops such a test based on the theory of order-restricted inference, which is robust with respect to the correlation structure of the distributions being compared. We apply the test to study the technology revealed by agricultural production experiments. For the data under scrutiny, the results support the assumption of the monotone likelihood ratio. In a second application, we find some support for the assumption of affiliation among bids cast in a multiple-round Vickrey auction for a consumption good. Keywords: affiliation, auction, likelihood ratio, order-restricted inference, stochastic order.

Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models

This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a vn asymptotic normality or is superconsistent with a rate at n. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon is used to illustrate the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure.Lack-of-fit, Model selection tests, Non-nested models, Simulated mean squared error of predictions

A Point Decision For Partially Identified Auction Models

This paper proposes a decision theoretic method to choose a single reserve price for partially identified auction models, such as Haile and Tamer, 2003, using data on transaction prices from English auctions. The paper employs Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989 for inference that is robust with respect to the prior over unidentified parameters. It is optimal to interpret the transaction price as the highest value, and maximize the posterior mean of the seller’s revenue. The Monte Carlo study shows substantial gains relative to the average revenues of the Haile and Tamer interval.

Private value preturbations ad informational advantage in common value auctions

We analyze the value of being better informed than one’s rival in a two bidder, second price common value auction. In order to do so, we must pare down the continuum of equilibria that typically exists in this setting. We propose selecting an equilibrium that is robust to perturbing the common value of the object with small private value components. Under this selection, we show that having better information about the common value will frequently hurt rather than help a bidder and that the ratio of private value to common value information held by a bidder has a significant effect on the value of information

Measuring the Efficiency of an FCC Spectrum Auction

FCC spectrum auctions sell licenses to provide mobile phone service in designated geographic territories. We propose a method to structurally estimate the deterministic component of bidder valuations and apply it to the 1995–1996 C-block auction. We base our estimation of bidder values on a pairwise stability condition, which implies that two bidders cannot exchange licenses in a way that increases total surplus. Pairwise stability holds in many theoretical models of simultaneous ascending auctions, including some models of intimidatory collusion and demand reduction. Pairwise stability is also approximately satisfied in data that we examine from economic experiments. The lack of post-auction resale also suggests pairwise stability. Using our estimates of deterministic valuations, we measure the allocative efficiency of the C-block outcome.