36,218 research outputs found
Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis
Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a
challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory
data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty
inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent
interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing,
corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at
the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians
is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain
experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic
Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible
at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value
estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection
and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density
estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for
automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.Comment: In proceedings of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial
Intelligence (AAAI-19
Uncertainty in multitask learning: joint representations for probabilistic MR-only radiotherapy planning
Multi-task neural network architectures provide a mechanism that jointly
integrates information from distinct sources. It is ideal in the context of
MR-only radiotherapy planning as it can jointly regress a synthetic CT (synCT)
scan and segment organs-at-risk (OAR) from MRI. We propose a probabilistic
multi-task network that estimates: 1) intrinsic uncertainty through a
heteroscedastic noise model for spatially-adaptive task loss weighting and 2)
parameter uncertainty through approximate Bayesian inference. This allows
sampling of multiple segmentations and synCTs that share their network
representation. We test our model on prostate cancer scans and show that it
produces more accurate and consistent synCTs with a better estimation in the
variance of the errors, state of the art results in OAR segmentation and a
methodology for quality assurance in radiotherapy treatment planning.Comment: Early-accept at MICCAI 2018, 8 pages, 4 figure
Automatic construction of rules fuzzy for modelling and prediction of the central nervous system
The main goal of this work is to study the performance of
CARFIR (Automatic Construction of Rules in Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning)
methodology for the modelling
and prediction of the human central nervous system (CNS). The CNS
controls the hemodynamical system by generating the regulating signals
for the blood vessels and the heart. The main idea behind CARFIR is to
expand the capacity of the FIR methodology allowing it to work with
classical fuzzy rules. CARFIR is able to automatically construct fuzzy
rules starting from a set of pattern rules obtained by FIR. The new
methodology preserves as much as possible the knowledge of the pattern
rules in a compact fuzzy rule base. The prediction results obtained by
the fuzzy prediction process of CARFIR methodology are compared with
those of other inductive methodologies, i.e. FIR, NARMAX and neural
networksPostprint (published version
On Probability and Cosmology: Inference Beyond Data?
Modern scientific cosmology pushes the boundaries of knowledge and the knowable. This is prompting questions on the nature of scientific knowledge. A central issue is what defines a 'good' model. When addressing global properties of the Universe or its initial state this becomes a particularly pressing issue. How to assess the probability of the Universe as a whole is empirically ambiguous, since we can examine only part of a single realisation of the system under investigation: at some point, data will run out. We review the basics of applying Bayesian statistical explanation to the Universe as a whole. We argue that a conventional Bayesian approach to model inference generally fails in such circumstances, and cannot resolve, e.g., the so-called 'measure problem' in inflationary cosmology. Implicit and non-empirical valuations inevitably enter model assessment in these cases. This undermines the possibility to perform Bayesian model comparison. One must therefore either stay silent, or pursue a more general form of systematic and rational model assessment. We outline a generalised axiological Bayesian model inference framework, based on mathematical lattices. This extends inference based on empirical data (evidence) to additionally consider the properties of model structure (elegance) and model possibility space (beneficence). We propose this as a natural and theoretically well-motivated framework for introducing an explicit, rational approach to theoretical model prejudice and inference beyond data
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