Improving cost and probability estimates using interaction

Texto en inglés y resumen en inglés y españolLa planificación automática consiste en producir una colección de acciones o plan que lleven a un agente desde un estado inicial a un objetivo. Esta colección puede ser una secuencia simple o una secuencia más compleja parcialmente ordenada de acciones. Se denomina planificación clásica cuando se cuenta con información completa del problema y las acciones son deterministas. Durante los últimos años se han conseguido significativos avances en la planificación automática, siendo capaz de resolver problemas de considerable tamaño y complejidad. Sin embargo, este enfoque no es efectivo a la hora de resolver problemas reales ya que en este tipo de problemas pueden suceder eventos inesperados, la respuesta tras realizar una acción no se puede predecir y como consecuencia el estado actual del mundo no se conoce con certeza. Por lo tanto, la ejecución de un plan generado por un planificador clásico ante un problema de la vida real podría fallar al no tener en cuenta dichas contingencias. Cuando se cuenta con información incompleta del problema y/o las acciones no son deterministas se denomina planificación bajo incertidumbre. Tradicionalmente, estos enfoques hacen uso de Procesos de Markov para generar planes robustos, pero de alta sobrecarga computacional. Otros enfoques de planificación bajo incertidumbre hacen uso de planificación de contingencias, traducción del problema con incertidumbre a un problema determinista o determinization y replanificación para resolver problemas. En los últimos años, la planificación automática se ha sumado al área de estudio del reconocimiento de metas, el cual se puede interpretar como la operación inversa a la planificación ya que tiene como objetivo inferir la(s) meta(s) de un agente tras observar parcial o completamente las acciones llevadas a cabo por el mismo. Recientemente, se han aplicado técnicas de planificación para resolver problemas de reconocimiento de metas, pero este enfoque está todavía en sus comienzos. Problemas de planificación clásica, de planificación bajo incertidumbre y de reconocimiento de metas se pueden resolver mediante búsqueda heurística, una de las técnicas que más éxito ha tenido resolviendo estos problemas. Las funciones heurísticas más comunes en planificación automática calculan estimaciones de distancia en forma de coste o probabilidad de alcanzar el estado meta desde un estado actual particular. Se denominan heurísticas admisibles a aquellas que guían la búsqueda hacia soluciones óptimas. Es decir, que minimizan el coste o maximizan la probabilidad. Estas heurísticas, a pesar de producir una solución óptima, pueden no ser suficientemente informativas o ser de alto coste computacional. Por otro lado, se denominan heurísticas no admisibles a aquellas que generan soluciones subóptimas. Estas heurísticas pueden o no producir la solución óptima, pero son más informativas que las heurísticas admisibles y han demostrado tener un buen rendimiento en cuanto a tiempo y calidad de la solución. En esta tesis, se investiga sobre aquellas heurísticas en el estado del arte que consideran acciones con coste o acciones probabilísticas para calcular estimaciones de coste y estimaciones de probabilidad más precisas. Para mejorar la precisión de las estimaciones de coste, se desarrolla una función heurística que lleva a cabo propagación de costes en un grafo de planificación. Estas estimaciones son más exactas gracias al uso de Interaction, término que permite calcular la relación de independencia, de sinergia o de exclusión mutua entre pares de elementos. Estas estimaciones de coste se utilizan para (1) guiar a un planificador clásico hacia soluciones que minimizan el coste, (2) guiar a un planificador probabilístico hacia soluciones que maximizan la probabilidad y (3) resolver eficientemente problemas de reconocimiento de metas. Para mejorar la precisión de las estimaciones de probabilidad, se desarrolla un novedoso enfoque que lleva a cabo propagación de probabilidades en un grafo de planificación. Esta propagación de probabilidades es más avanzada que la previa ya que considera (1) la probabilidad global de cada proposición entre los posibles efectos de cada acción probabilística y (2) la dependencia de pares de proposiciones entre los posibles efectos de una acción probabilística. La unión de ambas técnicas permite calcular estimaciones de probabilidad más exactas y así generar soluciones de alta probabilidad de éxito. Como resultado de este estudio se obtiene una familia de heurísticas que calculan aproximaciones de coste y aproximaciones de probabilidad más exactas y constantes que otras heurísticas del estado del arte

Economic analysis of fisheries projects

Project formulation is an important part of entrepreneurship development. Fisheries sector, hosting a gamut of entrepreneurship venture, corroborates the importance of technical know how in project planning, formulation and implementation. Diverse information in projects targeted at a heterogeneous g roup has been modified to suit the needs of an entrepreneur seeking assistance in his venture. This book on "Economic Analysis of Fisheries Projects' contains citations and applications, which caters to the needs of professional graduates and postgraduates in fisherie

The Effect of Executive Style on Risk Management: A Healthcare Supply Chain Context

This dissertation attempts to determine the effect of managerial Executive on healthcare supply chain risk management maturity. The healthcare industry is faced with constant risk to its supply chain and operates under the expectation that healthcare will continue to be delivered even under the most severe and disruptive of conditions. The effect of a manager, who operationalizes firm strategy, may impact the maturity level of a hospital’s risk management efforts. Through multi-method research, this study seeks to understand the effects of management on healthcare risk management maturity. Survey and interview methods were used to understand the relationship between healthcare supply chain managers and the effect they have on a firm’s risk management efforts in their supply chain. The study’s value lies in the identification of a unique measurement of healthcare supply chain risk management maturity clusters and initial support based on qualitative findings

From Individual to Organizational Resilience, A Case Study Review

Major disasters, both natural and human-made, pose sometimes insurmountable problems for unprepared or under-prepared organizations. In this capstone I explore and develop ideas about how individuals are able to affect organizational dynamics, within a complex context of change, in order to facilitate the mechanism of resilience. I employ the enriching information from a review of literature and my Organizational Dynamics classes. I use case studies of Sandler O’Neill’s response to the World Trade Center tragedy and the development of the Oregon Resilience Plan to identify a systemic approach to understanding the complexity of current organizational environments and the power of organizations’ dexterities. Further studies are needed to transfer theoretical resilience into practice, thereby developing organizations’ ability to change in such a way that becoming a new entity may be not only valuable but also affordable

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Developing strategic information system planning model in Libya organisations

This quantitative research study investigated the impact of organisational context on the process and success of strategic IS planning (SISP) in post-implementation information systems in Libyan organisations. A set of direct and indirect relationships were investigated in the research model. The organisational context presented as a contingent situational variable mediated by SISP process and predicted by SISP success (the criterion variable). The causality of the relationship set was developed from the contingency theory of information systems and supported by fit models in strategic management research. The study deployed multivariate analysis represented in the structural equation modelling (SEM) to develop robust construct measurements and analyse data collected from executives responsible for information systems planning in both public and private Libyan organisations. Multi-dimensional multi-items constructs were used in the path analysis model after they were extensively validated. The path analysis model represented as mediation model, where hypothesise suggest that SISP context has an impact SISP success, through the influence of the SISP process. In the model, four dimensions of the SISP context construct were found to have a significant impact on SISP success directly and indirectly through the SISP process. Two of these dimensions are components of the leadership orientation construct, namely “Creative and Controlling” leadership. The other two dimensions are “Organisation centralisation structure and the Riskiness of organisation strategies”. The environmental uncertainty and planning resource constructs were found to have no impact on SISP success in Libyan organisations. Furthermore, this study validated six out of seven dimensions of SISP process construct measurement; only five exhibited acceptable fit level in the path analysis model and all were affected by the SISP context. However, just three out of five SISP process constructs had an impact on SISP success namely “Comprehensiveness, Focus and Intuition planning process”. Different SISP processes were associated with different levels of SISP success, “Intuition” was the most effective SISP process approach. The second most effective SISP process approach was the “Focus on innovation”, followed by “Limited comprehensiveness”. The SISP success measured by the fulfilment of key objectives that has three measurements constructs namely “Analysis, Alignment, and Cooperation”. The research suggest that under the effect of organisation context the most successful SISP produced by (CIO, CEO, or top executives) who rely less on personal judgment, focus more on innovation rather than control and limit their comprehensiveness of information systems planning process

Human Dimensions of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries: An Overview of Context, Concepts, Tools and Methods

This document aims to provide a better understanding of the role of the economic, institutional and sociocultural components within the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) process and to examine some potential methods and approaches that may facilitate the adoption of EAF management. It explores both the human context for the ecosystem approach to fisheries and the human dimensions involved in implementing the EAF. For the former, the report provides background material essential to understand prior to embarking on EAF initiatives, including an understanding of key concepts and issues, of the valuation of aquatic ecosystems socially, culturally and economically, and of the many policy, legal, institutional, social and economic considerations relevant to the EAF. With respect to facilitating EAF implementation, the report deals with a series of specific aspects: (1) determining the boundaries, scale and scope of the EAF; (2) assessing the various benefits and costs involved, seen from social, economic, ecological and management perspectives; (3) utilizing appropriate decision-making tools in EAF; (4) creating and/or adopting internal incentives and institutional arrangements to promote, facilitate and fund the adoption of EAF management; and (5) finding suitable external (non-fisheries) approaches for financing EAF implementation

Richfield Fire Management Plan Environmental Assessment

This Environmental Assessment (EA) documents results of an analysis of proposed changes to the current management of wildland fire and hazardous fuels for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Richfield Support Center. Proposed revisions of the Richfield Fire Management Plan (FMP) serve as the “Proposed Action” for this EA. The revised FMP incorporates current planning requirements associated with fire management on public lands, including wildland fire management and fuel treatments. The EA analysis is designed to ensure compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). It allows determinations to be made as to whether any “significant,” as defined by the President’s Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) in Regulation 40 CFR 1508.27, impacts could result from the analyzed actions