39,200 research outputs found
Incremental learning with social media data to predict near real-time events
International audienceIn this paper, we focus on the problem of predicting some particular user activities in social media. Our challenge is to consider real events such as message posting to friends or forwarding received ones, connecting to new friends, and provide near real-time prediction of new events. Our approach is based on latent factor models which can exploit simultaneously the timestamped interaction information among users and their posted content information. We propose a simple strategy to learn incrementally the latent factors at each time step. Our method takes only recent data to update latent factor models and thus can reduce computational cost. Experiments on a real dataset collected from Twitter show that our method can achieve performances that are comparable with other state-of-the-art non-incremental techniques
Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network
Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and
disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. Such
dynamics are especially notable during a period of crisis. This work addresses
several important tasks of measuring, visualizing and predicting short term
text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word's contextual semantics,
and contrasting such shift with surface level word dynamics, or concept drift,
observed in social media streams. Unlike previous approaches on learning word
representations from text, we study the relationship between short-term concept
drift and representation shift on a large social media corpus - VKontakte posts
in Russian collected during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014-2015. Our novel
contributions include quantitative and qualitative approaches to (1) measure
short-term representation shift and contrast it with surface level concept
drift; (2) build predictive models to forecast short-term shifts in meaning
from previous meaning as well as from concept drift; and (3) visualize
short-term representation shift for example keywords to demonstrate the
practical use of our approach to discover and track meaning of newly emerging
terms in social media. We show that short-term representation shift can be
accurately predicted up to several weeks in advance. Our unique approach to
modeling and visualizing word representation shifts in social media can be used
to explore and characterize specific aspects of the streaming corpus during
crisis events and potentially improve other downstream classification tasks
including real-time event detection
From the Hands of an Early Adopter's Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods' Lifetime Survival
One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business
forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution,
and lifetime in the form of goods. In "real" economies, a perfect model for the
circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies
pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and
transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods'
circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to "real
life" and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics
of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of
the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our
prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan
of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those
objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for
the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected
characteristics of early adopters.Comment: 28 page
- …