Who is leading the campaign charts? Comparing individual popularity on old and new media

Traditionally, election campaigns are covered in the mass media with a strong focus on a limited number of top candidates. The question of this paper is whether this knowledge still holds today, when social media outlets are becoming more popular. Do candidates who dominate the traditional media also dominate the social media? Or can candidates make up for a lack of mass media coverage by attracting attention on Twitter? This study addresses these question by paring Twitter data with traditional media data for the 2014 Belgian elections. Our findings show that the two platforms are indeed strongly related and that candidates with a prominent position in the media are generally also most successful on Twitter. This is not because more popularity on Twitter translates directly into more traditional media coverage, but mainly because largely the same political elite dominates both platforms

Caching with Unknown Popularity Profiles in Small Cell Networks

A heterogenous network is considered where the base stations (BSs), small base stations (SBSs) and users are distributed according to independent Poisson point processes (PPPs). We let the SBS nodes to posses high storage capacity and are assumed to form a distributed caching network. Popular data files are stored in the local cache of SBS, so that users can download the desired files from one of the SBS in the vicinity subject to availability. The offloading-loss is captured via a cost function that depends on a random caching strategy proposed in this paper. The cost function depends on the popularity profile, which is, in general, unknown. In this work, the popularity profile is estimated at the BS using the available instantaneous demands from the users in a time interval $[0,\tau]$. This is then used to find an estimate of the cost function from which the optimal random caching strategy is devised. The main results of this work are the following: First it is shown that the waiting time $\tau$ to achieve an $\epsilon>0$ difference between the achieved and optimal costs is finite, provided the user density is greater than a predefined threshold. In this case, $\tau$ is shown to scale as $N^2$, where $N$ is the support of the popularity profile. Secondly, a transfer learning-based approach is proposed to obtain an estimate of the popularity profile used to compute the empirical cost function. A condition is derived under which the proposed transfer learning-based approach performs better than the random caching strategy.Comment: 6 pages, Proceedings of IEEE Global Communications Conference, 201

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

Countering Social Engineering through Social Media: An Enterprise Security Perspective

The increasing threat of social engineers targeting social media channels to advance their attack effectiveness on company data has seen many organizations introducing initiatives to better understand these vulnerabilities. This paper examines concerns of social engineering through social media within the enterprise and explores countermeasures undertaken to stem ensuing risk. Also included is an analysis of existing social media security policies and guidelines within the public and private sectors.Comment: Proceedings of The 7th International Conference on Computational Collective Intelligence Technologies and Applications (ICCCI 2015), LNAI, Springer, Vol. 9330, pp. 54-6

The distorted mirror of Wikipedia: a quantitative analysis of Wikipedia coverage of academics

Activity of modern scholarship creates online footprints galore. Along with traditional metrics of research quality, such as citation counts, online images of researchers and institutions increasingly matter in evaluating academic impact, decisions about grant allocation, and promotion. We examined 400 biographical Wikipedia articles on academics from four scientific fields to test if being featured in the world's largest online encyclopedia is correlated with higher academic notability (assessed through citation counts). We found no statistically significant correlation between Wikipedia articles metrics (length, number of edits, number of incoming links from other articles, etc.) and academic notability of the mentioned researchers. We also did not find any evidence that the scientists with better WP representation are necessarily more prominent in their fields. In addition, we inspected the Wikipedia coverage of notable scientists sampled from Thomson Reuters list of "highly cited researchers". In each of the examined fields, Wikipedia failed in covering notable scholars properly. Both findings imply that Wikipedia might be producing an inaccurate image of academics on the front end of science. By shedding light on how public perception of academic progress is formed, this study alerts that a subjective element might have been introduced into the hitherto structured system of academic evaluation.Comment: To appear in EPJ Data Science. To have the Additional Files and Datasets e-mail the corresponding autho

Predicting Successful Memes using Network and Community Structure

We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Proceedings of 8th AAAI Intl. Conf. on Weblogs and social media (ICWSM 2014