Why closing an Airport May not Matter – The Impact of the Relocation of TXL Airport on the Bus Network of Berlin

This paper investigates the closure of TXL airport and its impact on the bus network of Berlin. The results of the scenario are based on a co-evolutionary algorithm for public transit network design. The algorithm is integrated in a multi-modal multi-agent simulation. In the simulation, competing minibus operators start exploring the public transport market offering their services. With more successful operators expanding and less successful operators going bankrupt, a sustainable network of minibus services evolves. In the TXL scenario, the impact of the massive change in demand is found to be locally confined. Only transit lines serving TXL airport directly are affected. Furthermore, transit lines are found to have a higher probability of surviving if connecting two different activity centers, e.g. transit hubs. Following a hub-and-spoke approach by letting the line end in low-demand areas renders a line less attractive because of a reduced connectivity, e.g. to one train station only

Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Strategies for Handling Temporal Uncertainty in Pickup and Delivery Problems with Time Windows

In many real-life routing problems there is more uncertainty with respect to the required timing of the service than with respect to the service locations. We focus on a pickup and delivery problem with time windows in which the pickup and drop-off locations of the service requests are fully known in advance, but the time at which these jobs will require service is only fully revealed during operations. We develop a sample-scenario routing strategy to accommodate a variety of potential time real- izations while designing and updating the routes. Our experiments on a breadth of instances show that advance time related information, if used intelligently, can yield benefits. Furthermore, we show that it is beneficial to tailor the consensus function that is used in the sample-scenario approach to the specifics of the problem setting. By doing so, our strategy performs well on instances with both short time windows and limited advance confirmation

Heuristics and policies for online pickup and delivery problems

Master ThesisIn the last few decades, increased attention has been dedicated to a speci c subclass of Vehicle Routing Problems due to its signi cant importance in several transportation areas such as taxi companies, courier companies, transportation of people, organ transportation, etc. These problems are characterized by their dynamicity as the demands are, in general, unknown in advance and the corresponding locations are paired. This thesis addresses a version of such Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problems, motivated by a problem arisen in an Australian courier company, which operates in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, where almost every day more than a thousand transportation orders arrive and need to be accommodated. The rm has a eet of almost two hundred vehicles of various types, mostly operating within the city areas. Thus, whenever new orders arrive at the system the dispatchers face a complex decision regarding the allocation of the new customers within the distribution routes (already existing or new) taking into account a complex multi-level objective function. The thesis thus focuses on the process of learning simple dispatch heuristics, and lays the foundations of a recommendation system able to rank such heuristics. We implemented eight of these, observing di erent characteristics of the current eet and orders. It incorporates an arti cial neural network that is trained on two hundred days of past data, and is supervised by schedules produced by an oracle, Indigo, which is a system able to produce suboptimal solutions to problem instances. The system opens the possibility for many dispatch policies to be implemented that are based on this rule ranking, and helps dispatchers to manage the vehicles of the eet. It also provides results for the human resources required each single day and within the di erent periods of the day. We complement the quite promising results obtained with a discussion on future additions and improvements such as channel eet management, tra c consideration, and learning hyper-heuristics to control simple rule sequences.The thesis work was partially supported by the National ICT Australia according to the Visitor Research Agreement contract between NICTA and Martin Damyanov Aleksandro

A simulation study of cane transport system improvements in the Sezela Mill area.

Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.The South African sugar industry is of significant local and international importance and covers an area in excess of 450 000 hectares. This area yields approximately 21 million tons of sugarcane per annum which is transported almost exclusively by road, from farms to the sugar mills. The industry is under increasing economic pressures to improve its productivity and competitiveness and sugarcane transport in the sugarcane supply chain has been identified as one area where large improvements and associated cost reductions can be made. This is mainly due to the excess in number of vehicles in the inbound transport system, the high relative cost of transport compared to other production costs in producing sugarcane, and the high fixed costs associated with truck fleet operations. A simulation case study of the transport system was completed in 2005 in the Sezela Mill area in which approximately 2.2 million tons of sugarcane is transported per annum over an average distance of 29 km by approximately 120 independently managed vehicles owned by a wide range of hauliers and individual growers. This amounts to an estimated cost of R58 million per annum. This study investigated the potential savings that could occur as a result of a central fleet control system with integrated vehicle scheduling. A scheduling software package named ASICAM, which resulted in significant savings in the timber industry (Weintraub et al, 1996), was applied within the Sezela region. Results suggested that the number of trucks in the fleet could theoretically be reduced by at least 50%, providing that a central office controls vehicle movements and that all hauliers serve all growers in an equitable fashion. In addition, investigations towards decreasing loading times, decreasing offloading times, changing vehicle speeds and increasing payloads by reducing trailer tare mass showed further reductions in the number of trucks required