Humans best judge how much to cooperate when facing hard problems in large groups

We report the results of a game-theoretic experiment with human players who solve the problems of increasing complexity by cooperating in groups of increasing size. Our experimental environment is set up to make it complicated for players to use rational calculation for making the cooperative decisions. This environment is directly translated into a computer simulation, from which we extract the collaboration strategy that leads to the maximal attainable score. Based on this, we measure the error that players make when estimating the benefits of collaboration, and find that humans massively underestimate these benefits when facing easy problems or working alone or in small groups. In contrast, when confronting hard problems or collaborating in large groups, humans accurately judge the best level of collaboration and easily achieve the maximal score. Our findings are independent on groups' composition and players' personal traits. We interpret them as varying degrees of usefulness of social heuristics, which seems to depend on the size of the involved group and the complexity of the situation.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figure. In press for Scientific Report

Picturing Teacher Agency: Developing Upstanding Heuristics in a Middle Grades Social Studies Methods Course

This paper presents a multi-case study of teacher candidates in a pre-service middle grades social studies methods course. The research aimed to understand how the middle grades teacher candidates viewed their future as upstanders with agency in middle grades settings. The focus of the research was on heuristic representations that the teacher candidates created to illustrate how they understood their role in supporting the democratic aims of middle grades social studies. Qualitative data was collected and analyzed through chordal triad of agency theory (Emirbayer & Mische, 1998). The findings indicate that preservice teachers best understand their future as change agents through their role of curriculum and instruction and their impact on students, additionally their conceptualizations of their intended agency were influenced by their past and present experiences as well as their projected goals for the future. This research also suggests that heuristics may be a powerful tool in the preparation of teacher candidates, helping them to think through their role in supporting the democratic aims of social studies, middle grades education and social justice education. Important constraints about teacher candidates’ perceptions (or lack thereof) of oppressive structures within middle schools settings are considered

Chapter 18 The winds of change

The ongoing process of digitalization seems to be changing our world dramatically. While many of these changes might lead to improvements for human well-being, others might entail profoundly disastrous consequences both for individuals and for societies as a whole. One research program that might be particularly suitable for studying environmental changes is the fast-and-frugal heuristics framework. This theoretical framework adopts an ecological perspective on human behavior, cognition, and performance. In an uncertain world, humans, so the argument goes, can adaptively respond to environmental demands by relying on a repertoire of simple decision strategies, called heuristics. Selecting heuristics that fit the environment results in adaptive behavior. This chapter focuses on the possible negative aspects of digitalization to discuss how the science of heuristic decision making under uncertainty might aid reflection on how individuals navigate their way through sudden, disruptive, and thorough environmental changes. Specifically, it sketches out what aversive future digital environments might look like, and which heuristics individuals and societies might rely upon in order to manage those aversive environments. The chapter concludes by (1) pointing to a series of research questions about how digital environments might differ from other environments that we humans have encountered both in our more recent history and over the course of our evolution, as well as (2) turning to questions about children and education

Dealing with Problematic Situations

La finalidad principal de este artículo es esbozar una respuesta holística a la siguiente pregunta: ¿Cómo resolver situaciones problemáticas? Presentaremos un marco de trabajo en el que propondremos un nuevo enfoque y una nueva disciplina meta, basada en el conocimiento y la experiencia extraída de otras disciplinas. Nos centraremos en aquellas intervenciones sociales que precisan de la participación tanto del usuario o clientes como de los facilitadores o asesores. En estos grupos de trabajo experimentales, los procesos sociales adquieren gran importancia. Así mismo, analizaremos el arte de la facilitación. Además, expondremos diferentes propuestas, métodos y técnicas de resolución de problemas. Por último, finalizaremos con una exhaustiva lista de referencias sobre diversas disciplinas que han proporcionado información sobre los muchos conceptos y enfoques presentados en este artículo

Human dimensions in cyber operations research and development priorities.

Within cyber security, the human element represents one of the greatest untapped opportunities for increasing the effectiveness of network defenses. However, there has been little research to understand the human dimension in cyber operations. To better understand the needs and priorities for research and development to address these issues, a workshop was conducted August 28-29, 2012 in Washington DC. A synthesis was developed that captured the key issues and associated research questions. Research and development needs were identified that fell into three parallel paths: (1) human factors analysis and scientific studies to establish foundational knowledge concerning factors underlying the performance of cyber defenders; (2) development of models that capture key processes that mediate interactions between defenders, users, adversaries and the public; and (3) development of a multi-purpose test environment for conducting controlled experiments that enables systems and human performance measurement. These research and development investments would transform cyber operations from an art to a science, enabling systems solutions to be engineered to address a range of situations. Organizations would be able to move beyond the current state where key decisions (e.g. personnel assignment) are made on a largely ad hoc basis to a state in which there exist institutionalized processes for assuring the right people are doing the right jobs in the right way. These developments lay the groundwork for emergence of a professional class of cyber defenders with defined roles and career progressions, with higher levels of personnel commitment and retention. Finally, the operational impact would be evident in improved performance, accompanied by a shift to a more proactive response in which defenders have the capacity to exert greater control over the cyber battlespace

Social and Ethical Considerations of Nuclear Power Development

A new urgency is emerging around nuclear power development and this urgency is accentuated by the post-tsunami events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. This urgency extends beyond these dramatic events in Japan, however, to many other regions of the world and situations where nuclear power development is receiving renewed attention as an alternative to carbon-based energy sources. As a contribution to the growing public debate about nuclear power development, this paper offers a set of insights into the social and ethical aspects of nuclear power development by drawing from published literature in the humanities and social sciences. We offer insights into public risk perception of nuclear power at individual and national levels, the siting of nuclear waste repositories, the changing policy context for nuclear power development, social movements, and the challenges of risk management at the institutional level. We also pay special attention to the ethical aspects of nuclear power with attention to principles such as means and ends, use value and intrinsic value, private goods and public goods, harm, and equity considerations. Finally, we provide recommendations for institutional design and performance in nuclear power design and management.nuclear power, risk perception, social context, megaprojects, energy production, applied ethics, social values, social movements, complexity, hazards, disaster response, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q40, Z00,

Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Politics of the Beholder?

The study reported here assessed the impact of managers\u27 philosophies of human nature on their reactions to influential academic claims and counter-claims of when human judgment is likely to stray from rational-actor standards and of how organizations can correct these biases. Managers evaluated scenarios that depicted decision-making processes at micro, meso, and macro levels of analysis: alleged cognitive biases of individuals, strategies of structuring and coping with accountability relationships between supervisors and employees, and strategies that corporate entities use to cope with accountability demands from the broader society. Political ideology and cognitive style emerged as consistent predictors of the value spins that managers placed on decisions at all three levels of analysis. Specifically, conservative managers with strong preferences for cognitive closure were most likely (a) to defend simple heuristic-driven errors such as overattribution and overconfidence and to warn of the mirror-image mistakes of failing to hold people accountable and of diluting sound policies with irrelevant side-objectives; (b) to be skeptical of complex strategies of structuring or coping with accountability and to praise those who lay down clear rules and take decisive stands; (c) to prefer simple philosophies of corporate governance (the shareholder over stakeholder model) and to endorse organizational norms such as hierarchical filtering that reduce cognitive overload on top management by short-circuiting unnecessary argumentation. Intuitive theories of good judgment apparently cut across levels of analysis and are deeply grounded in personal epistemologies and political ideologies

Confronting an identity crisis - how to "brand" systems engineering

Systems Engineering is not a new discipline; the term has been in use since World War II. Yet, while there has been no shortage of definitions of the term over the years (not all of which are consistent), there is little consensus on the scope of Systems Engineering. This is particularly true in relation to other overlapping disciplines such as System Dynamics, Operations Research, Industrial Engineering, Project Management, Soft Systems Methodology, Specialist Engineering, and Control Theory, which share many of the origins and techniques of Systems Engineering. This paper presents a landscape of disciplines and suggests that INCOSE should “brand” Systems Engineering strategically, defining explicitly its position within this landscape including its points of parity (overlaps) and points of difference with other disciplines. Actively branding Systems Engineering will broaden its appeal and attract more interest from stakeholders outside the current Systems Engineering community. INCOSE’s “market share” relative to its biggest systems competitor—Project Management—is falling, so even though INCOSE membership is rising, more needs to be done to promote the profession