An uneasy reality: Donor support for IDPs in Ukraine Łukasz Wenerski, Andriy Korniychuk, Oleksandr Kliuzhev (cooperation)

According to international organizations, since the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas, internal migrations might have affected from two to three million people. From Crimea and Donbas alone, 1.5 million Ukrainian citizens had to change their place of residence. Concerns that these internally displaced persons (IDPs) will become “Ukraine’s lost generation” have been voiced. A considerable number of Ukrainian citizens affected by the war in eastern Ukraine have started to look for either international protection on the territory of the EU or possible ways to pursue economic migration. Taking into account the unresolved refugee crisis in Europe, the international community has a particular interest in making sure the situation in Ukraine does not get out of hand. In this regard, the effectiveness of the assistance to the Ukrainian state and its civil society provided by international donors is of paramount importance. Whereas the migration crisis has revealed new challenges faced by the Ukrainian state as it is undergoing the process of reform, it has also contributed to an increase in the public activity of Ukrainian citizens. Some of the most active IDPs have managed to find their place in the new reality (within the country or outside Ukraine), however, many have failed to cope with the displacement and are still struggling with huge economic and social problems. In some places, basic humanitarian aid is still required, yet IDPs today generally face other problems, most frequently difficulties in finding a job and the lack of proper housing. There are several reasons for IDPs’ critical situation on the labor market: the unfavorable condition of the Ukrainian economy, skills that do not fit the Ukrainian economy (a consequence of the fact that Donbas was dominated by heavy industry and the mining industry, in particular), and sometimes the inactivity of the displaced people themselves (an effect of living many years under non- democratic rule in the region). This paper aims at analyzing the socio-economic reality of IDPs in Ukraine as well as the state’s response to their challenges from the perspective of the IDP community. In addition, it presents how Ukrainian NGOs assess donor support for IDPs and what Ukrainian civil society expects from the international community in those areas where assistance is needed most

The civil war hardship on al-Anbar community of Iraq

Life after the civil war between Sunni and Shiite has not only changed the infrastructure and situation of Al-Anbar Province, Iraq in 2013, but also it has brought social change and affected their belief system. As many people were killed, losing their families and home; people are also suffered of losing their confidence to lead a new life and it includes the shattered belief system. Indirectly, they are still suffering from the subsequences of the war even though not all has actually involved in the civil war. The objective of this study is to understand the impact of the civil war towards the society, to explore the hardship and obstacle facing by them after the civil war. This objective will be discussed mainly under the concept of social change and belief system. Al-Anbar province has been chosen for the location to be studied since it showed the highest numbers of killing, destruction, displacement, deterioration of the political situation as well as dissension among people of the same religion. The research is based on a qualitative study in which an in-depth interview will be conducted. The study includes twenty-four male informants. The data was transcribed and translated from Arabic language into English and thematic analysis was used too. The finding shows that majority of the informants believed that the religious belief in the community is strongly affected by the civil war. Most informants cited instant increase in the level of commitment towards Islam. In the face of intense danger, prayers performed more frequently than usual as believers turned to God for protection and seeking His answer in the period of adversity. Local mosques organized additional gatherings and talks to help to preserve unity among people and strengthen their integrity in faith amidst rising sectarian tension between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. As the result, civil war has created both optimist and pessimist people depending on how they have taken the new social changes that have taken place and how the new situations will shape their understanding towards their belief system

Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict

This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in Russian media and society has, in fact, escaped fairly lightly during the comprehensive reform of the Russian Army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been down to the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant-General Vladimir Shamanov. Close to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Shamanov--a maverick --has used his political connections to help ward off many of the cuts and reforms that have impacted the rest of the Army. He has managed to keep the basic structure of the VDV intact, while also dealing with a number of problematic issues related to manning, equipment, and training regimes within his organization. This monograph goes on to point out the level of professionalism in the VDV that was demonstrated during the Georgian war. It also though, highlights the fact that, while some battalions within the VDV will be very effective and well trained, other battalions will not. Thus it is difficult to judge precisely how battle-ready the VDV’s divisions now are. Ultimately, this monograph seeks to establish just what sort of Russian airborne forces U.S. or NATO troops may one day have to either work alongside or, indeed, face in some sort of confrontation.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1562/thumbnail.jp

“Soldiering on in Hope”: United Nations Peacekeeping in Civil Wars

This note will examine the consequences of the Security Council’s decisions to deploy under-resourced operations to civil war situations and various proposed means by which the Security Council might more effectively fulfill its responsibilities. Part II will look at a number of post-Cold War U.N. operations in civil wars—UNPROFOR in Croatia and Bosnia, United Nations Operation in Somalia I (UNOSOM I), United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda II (UNAMIR II), and United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL)—and show how, at least partly because of the Security Council’s failure to ensure that the operations it authorized were provided with sufficient numbers of adequately equipped troops, significant mandate elements could not be achieved. Part III will argue that decisions to authorize an inadequate number of troops and supplies (in Croatia, Somalia, Bosnia, and Sierra Leone), or to authorize troops whose rapid deployment was unlikely (in Rwanda and Bosnia), were taken in the face of clear indications of the likely obstacles to success, thus suggesting that the cause of failure was not lack of information, unexpected events on the ground, or unexpected failures to commit troops. What is required is not an improvement in, for example, the U.N.’s intelligence capability, but, rather, structural change to the peacekeeping system. Part IV will examine various proposed changes to the system of U.N. peacekeeping that aim to avoid this phenomenon of underresourcing, and will argue that none of them offers a politically achievable way of remedying these flaws. Part V will argue that, since a blanket decision by the Security Council to avoid involvement in any situation where these “warning signs” exist would represent an abdication of its responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, efforts at innovation should be focused not on overhauling the system of U.N. peacekeeping, but on improving means of U.N. involvement with other force providers—regional and multinational—whereby the strengths of each can be used to improve, and guard against the failings of, the other

“Soldiering on in Hope”: United Nations Peacekeeping in Civil Wars

This note will examine the consequences of the Security Council’s decisions to deploy under-resourced operations to civil war situations and various proposed means by which the Security Council might more effectively fulfill its responsibilities. Part II will look at a number of post-Cold War U.N. operations in civil wars—UNPROFOR in Croatia and Bosnia, United Nations Operation in Somalia I (UNOSOM I), United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda II (UNAMIR II), and United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL)—and show how, at least partly because of the Security Council’s failure to ensure that the operations it authorized were provided with sufficient numbers of adequately equipped troops, significant mandate elements could not be achieved. Part III will argue that decisions to authorize an inadequate number of troops and supplies (in Croatia, Somalia, Bosnia, and Sierra Leone), or to authorize troops whose rapid deployment was unlikely (in Rwanda and Bosnia), were taken in the face of clear indications of the likely obstacles to success, thus suggesting that the cause of failure was not lack of information, unexpected events on the ground, or unexpected failures to commit troops. What is required is not an improvement in, for example, the U.N.’s intelligence capability, but, rather, structural change to the peacekeeping system. Part IV will examine various proposed changes to the system of U.N. peacekeeping that aim to avoid this phenomenon of underresourcing, and will argue that none of them offers a politically achievable way of remedying these flaws. Part V will argue that, since a blanket decision by the Security Council to avoid involvement in any situation where these “warning signs” exist would represent an abdication of its responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, efforts at innovation should be focused not on overhauling the system of U.N. peacekeeping, but on improving means of U.N. involvement with other force providers—regional and multinational—whereby the strengths of each can be used to improve, and guard against the failings of, the other

Investigating the Links between Feedback Orientation and Leadership Self-Efficacy in Field Grade Officers

A myriad of challenges and shifting strategic priorities face today’s military leaders. Since the military is undergoing substantial change as it adjusts to the changing nature of war and a fluid world situation, Field Grade Officers (FGO) must actively develop and hone their leadership behavior by implementing effective feedback counsel. They must also increase their leadership self-efficacy to confidently accomplish specific leadership tasks and challenges. This non-experimental quantitative correlational research addresses the correlation of leadership self-efficacy and feedback orientation in FGOs. Given the impact of the feedback process on the FGO recipient, it is important to understand differences in how military leaders respond to feedback. Equally, the researcher discussed leadership self-efficacy in military leaders. While there is a considerable amount of existing research on feedback orientation and self-efficacy separately, very little research exists correlating feedback orientation to leadership self-efficacy. The findings of this research demonstrate there is a moderate positive relationship between feedback orientation and leadership self-efficacy within military leadership. By running an organization from a Christian point of view and value, leaders can experience the supernatural power of Christ. Business leaders will gain efficacy in Christ by what they have seen and experienced. Key words: feedback orientation, leadership self-efficacy, learning goal orientation, servant leadershi

The Most Critical Resource: How Climate Change Fuels the Crisis in Syria and the Implications for the World at Large

The Syrian crisis, both domestic and international in scope, may well be the defining geopolitical challenge of the generation. Climate change may be the single greatest challenge to face humanity in the entirety of our species’ life history. The dramatic effects of climate change can be seen in the origins of the Syrian crisis when one looks to humanity’s single most critical resource: water. We take the word critical to have two meanings in this context: first, that water is essential to human survival and second that water is a resource in critical condition. Syria’s water crisis pre-dates the civil war in which the nation is embroiled and the subsequent refugee crisis that has sent shockwaves to nearly every corner of the Earth. To what extent has climate change driven the crisis to its current point and how does it continue to drive it today? This study seeks to explain the global crisis in terms of climatically affected resources with particular emphasis on water. The analysis of shifting climate conditions and human migrations proposes that the crisis cannot be brought to true resolution without a conscious and targeted effort to remedy the root cause­: the unprecedented depletion of the Earth’s water reservoir. The international implications of the horrors that have gripped Syria go beyond concern over an overflow of refugees or conflict spilling across geopolitical lines; water is a common resource which no technological advance can free humanity from dependence. The lessons learned by the global community through the Syrian crisis will define the next generation of global politics and lead humanity for better or worse, into an uncertain twenty-second century

NATO: Adaptation and Relevance for the 21st Century

NATOs demise has been much heralded, dismissed by many as a remnant of the Cold War era, with no role in todays complex security environment. Institutionally, the Alliance has endured beyond expected norms, evolving to remain relevant. This paper examines thematically how the Alliance has developed, through the prisms of its institutions, capabilities and political will. Analysing the areas of international relations and institutional theory, it establishes that NATO remains relevant. Whilst the Alliance is more flexible than it is perceived, enlargement has brought a divergence of views amongst members, which has led to particular tensions in burden-sharing and willingness to face risk, as highlighted in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Whilst this dissonance continues, there is little prospect of NATO challenging the UN in terms of legitimate intervention. The process of change must continue

Futures of Civil Aviation Operations explored from the perspective of Finnair

Civil aviation is one of the busiest transport sectors which to this day has no competitors when it comes to speed and efficiency of transporting passengers and goods all around the world. Because of this the industry is constantly developing and trying to meet the huge demand for its services. The world economy directly depends on its main carrier, without which world trade would not be carried out in such large volumes and at such a fast pace. However, the function of civil aviation is totally dependable on various factors that directly or indirectly affect it. If we were only to look at the biggest pieces of the puzzle, such as the economy, politics and environmental changes, it could be easier to predict the future direction of civil aviation. However, we are left flustered when critical events, the so-called wild cards such as the COVID- 19 pandemic, occur. Such events have already proved to us that they can in the worst case scenario completely suspend civil aviation operations and lead to the stagnation of global economy. The purpose of this study is to go beyond the obvious and to identify some of the most important underlying factors which are likely to affect the future of aviation in the next twenty years. The aviation industry goes tightly together with the forefront of technology and is in the middle of search for innovations that can help achieve a more sustainable world where civil aviation still exists. Climate change is forcing the aviation industry, among many other fields, to look for solutions to drastically cut their carbon emissions while subsequently more and more consumers are choosing to minimize their carbon footprint and avoid air travel. Moreover, climate change is not the only struggle aviation has to face in the future. The war in Ukraine has showed us how much of an inconvenience wars and military operations can be for civil aviation with plane routes being re-directed to avoid war-zones adding thousands of miles into their journey. Likewise the safety of civil aviation is always at risk when military actions including missiles are carried out, and even outside of war the industry still has not reached a 100% flight safety despite the extensive efforts of building safer and more reliable aircrafts. In addition, the industry which once was the crown jewel of human innovation is having to face the harsh reality that modern artificial intelligence might one day take over some of the key elements of aviation including piloting the planes. These among other factors will most likely affect civil aviation in the next 20 years. The images of the future presented in this study and identified as critical are based directly on these scenarios and are backed up by information obtained from suitable sources on this topic

Chinese Democracy: How Elite Thinking on China\u27s Development and Change Influences Chinese Practice of Democracy (1839–the Current Time)

Will China become a multiparty democracy? This is the research problem of this dissertation. My hypothesis is this: the greater the extent that Chinese elite thinking on development and change reconciles the tension between Chinese nationalism and collectivist, family-like ethics on the one hand, and the western democratic ideals based on each self-seeking individual’s subjectivity on the other hand, the greater the chance that China’s political development will lead to a multiparty democracy. The dissertation includes two parts: Chapters two to five are historical analyses, and chapters six to eight are the interviews. It is my assumption that Chinese elite thinking on China’s development and change has been influencing the Chinese practice of democracy since the Opium War (1839-1842), and will continue to have great impacts upon the Chinese pursuit of democracy in the next 20 years. I use chapters two to five of my dissertation, the historical analyses, to demonstrate the causal relationship between Chinese elite thinking on the development and change of Chinese society on the one hand, and Chinese historical practice of democracy (from 1839 till the current time, including “Leninist democracy”) on the other hand, the former being the independent variable and the latter being the dependent variable. The method used in chapters two to five is historiography, I develop my causal analysis based on extensive reading of historians’ and social scientists’ works. And then I use chapters six to eight of my dissertation , the interviews, as the most current information that reveals Chinese social trends toward the next 20 years, and make an assessment of whether, in the next 20 years (2004-2024), China will become a western style, multiparty democracy—and if the answer is yes, what that democracy will look like. For example, one could argue that such a democracy will be a combination of western democracy (based on the value of individualism) and Chinese culture (based on the value of collectivism). My judgment is based on chapters two to five, the historical analyses of the long-term trend, and chapters six to eight, the information gained from the interviewees. The method used in chapters six to eight is face to face, in-depth interviews. The interviewees come from the four elite groups in the current Chinese society: government officials, the enterprise people, media professionals, and intellectuals. The interview question does not directly ask question about democracy; rather, it asks the interviewee’s personal opinions about “the positive or negative factors that have been driving or limiting the development and change of X city (in the context of development and change of Chinese society since 1839), carrying it toward the next 20 years.” So the interviewees do not directly talk about democracy—they just express their views on positive and negative factors that might influence the development and change of the city that they are in. Because in urban development one can best experience the tension between traditional values and modern values, the development and change of a city (in the context of the development and change of Chinese society since 1839) and how people deal with it in their thinking should reveal information about the social trends. The major findings are these: 55.5 % of the interviewees are pro-democracy; 22.2 % of them are not pro-democracy; 16.6 % of them are not concerned about the issue of democracy in China; and 5.5 % of them are uncertain. I have found substantial evidence of favorable prospects for democracy. So my conclusion is: China has favorable prospects for becoming a multiparty democracy; any democratic system that emerges likely will be a Confucian democracy (communal or social democracy); the Chinese culture will become a combination of liberalism and Confucianism; the balance of traditional elements (Confucianism) and modern elements (liberalism) will depend on each individual’s free will and free choice; the process of democratization will start with the intellectuals, and then spread to the whole nation. Finally, this democratization process will likely happen in the next 20 years (2004 to 2024), based on responses from the person I interviewed