ASHEE: a compressible, equilibrium-Eulerian model for volcanic ash plumes

A new fluid-dynamic model is developed to numerically simulate the non-equilibrium dynamics of polydisperse gas-particle mixtures forming volcanic plumes. Starting from the three-dimensional N-phase Eulerian transport equations for a mixture of gases and solid particles, we adopt an asymptotic expansion strategy to derive a compressible version of the first-order non-equilibrium model, valid for low concentration regimes and small particles Stokes $St<0.2$. When $St < 0.001$ the model reduces to the dusty-gas one. The new model is significantly faster than the Eulerian model while retaining the capability to describe gas-particle non-equilibrium. Direct numerical simulation accurately reproduce the dynamics of isotropic turbulence in subsonic regime. For gas-particle mixtures, it describes the main features of density fluctuations and the preferential concentration of particles by turbulence, verifying the model reliability and suitability for the simulation of high-Reynolds number and high-temperature regimes. On the other hand, Large-Eddy Numerical Simulations of forced plumes are able to reproduce their observed averaged and instantaneous properties. The self-similar radial profile and the development of large-scale structures are reproduced, including the rate of entrainment of atmospheric air. Application to the Large-Eddy Simulation of the injection of the eruptive mixture in a stratified atmosphere describes some of important features of turbulent volcanic plumes, including air entrainment, buoyancy reversal, and maximum plume height. Coarse particles partially decouple from the gas within eddies, modifying the turbulent structure, and preferentially concentrate at the eddy periphery, eventually being lost from the plume margins due to the gravity. By these mechanisms, gas-particle non-equilibrium is able to influence the large-scale behavior of volcanic plumes.Comment: 29 pages, 22 figure

Pyroclastic flow dynamics and hazard in a caldera setting: application to Phlegrean Fields

Numerical simulation of pyroclastic density currents has developed significantly in recent years and is increasingly applied to volcanological research. Results from physical modeling are commonly taken into account in volcanic hazard assessment and in the definition of hazard mitigation strategies. In this work, we modeled pyroclastic density currents in the Phlegrean Fields caldera, where flows propagating along the flat ground could be confined by the old crater rims that separate downtown Naples from the caldera. The different eruptive scenarios (mass eruption rates, magma compositions, and water contents) were based on available knowledge of this volcanic system, and appropriate vent conditions were calculated for each scenario. Simulations were performed along different topographic profiles to evaluate the effects of topographic barriers on flow propagation. Simulations highlighted interesting features associated with the presence of obstacles such as the development of backflows. Complex interaction between outward moving fronts and backflows can affect flow propagation; if backflows reach the vent, they can even interfere with fountain dynamics and induce a more collapsing behavior. Results show that in the case of large events ( 108 kg/s), obstacles affect flow propagation by reducing flow velocity and hence dynamic pressure in distal regions, but they cannot stop the advancement of flows. Deadly conditions (in terms of temperature and ash concentration) characterize the entire region invaded by pyroclastic flows. In the case of small events (2.5 107 kg/s), flows are confined by distal topographic barriers which provide valuable protection to the region beyond

È VIVO: Virtual eruptions at Vesuvius; A multimedia tool to illustrate numerical modeling to a general public

Dissemination of scientific results to the general public has become increasingly important in our society. When science deals with natural hazards, public outreach is even more important: on the one hand, it contributes to hazard perception and it is a necessary step toward preparedness and risk mitigation; on the other hand, it contributes to establish a positive link of mutual confidence between scientific community and the population living at risk. The existence of such a link plays a relevant role in hazard communication, which in turn is essential to mitigate the risk. In this work, we present a tool that we have developed to illustrate our scientific results on pyroclastic flow propagation at Vesuvius. This tool, a CD-ROM that we developed joining scientific data with appropriate knowledge in communication sciences is meant to be a first prototype that will be used to test the validity of this approach to public outreach. The multimedia guide contains figures, images of real volcanoes and computer animations obtained through numerical modeling of pyroclastic density currents. Explanatory text, kept as short and simple as possible, illustrates both the process and the methodology applied to study this very dangerous natural phenomenon. In this first version, the CD-ROM will be distributed among selected categories of end-users together with a short questionnaire that we have drawn to test its readability. Future releases will include feedback from the users, further advancement of scientific results as well as a higher degree of interactivity

Computational Strategies in Uncertainty Quantification for Hazard Mapping

There are many hazards associated with volcanic activities. Amongst them are Pyroclastic flows; a mixture of rock fragments, debris and hot gases that flow down the slope of actives volcanoes at high velocities. These flows have proven to be devastating, and at the same time more than 500 millions people in the world live within potential exposure to such a hazard. A few approaches have been used to try to mitigate the impact of volcanic hazard in general. These include remote sensing technology and developing hazard maps – a graphic representation of safe and risky zones for a given volcanic area. In this dissertation, we develop a workflow for fast creation of accurate hazard maps. We apply this workflow on the case of the Long Valley volcanic region in northern California (USA). We have also made a couple of contributions that, while pertinent to the problem at hand, also have merit in a wide range of applications. First, we develop a Hierarchical Bayesian model that combines data on Pyroclastic flow behavior from various volcanic sites into a ”global” dataset and reduces predictive uncertainty at volcanoes with sparse data. Of particular interest to us is the uncertainty in key input variables for computer simulations of Pyroclastic flows. Secondly, we develop a learn- ing algorithm for experimental resource allocation in the case where multiple objectives need to be achieved simultaneously. This algorithm allows us to compute probability of hazard for multiple locations at the same time, and vastly reduce the time it takes to create hazard maps. These two contributions form the basis of a tool for geo-scientists to rapidly assess risk spatially at a moment notice, and provide hazard maps that can be used as a teaching tool for communities at risk

Grain size and flow volume effects on granular flow mobility in numerical simulations: 3-D discrete element modeling of flows of angular rock fragments.

The results of three-dimensional discrete element modeling (DEM) presented in this paper confirm the grain size and flow volume effects on granular flow mobility that were observed in laboratory experiments where batches of granular material traveled down a curved chute. Our numerical simulations are able to predict the correct relative mobility of the granular flows because they take into account particle interactions and, thus, the energy dissipated by the flows. The results illustrated here are obtained without prior fine tuning of the parameter values to get the desired output. The grain size and flow volume effects can be expressed by a linear relationship between scaling parameters where the finer the grain size or the smaller the flow volume, the more mobile the centre of mass of the granular flows. The numerical simulations reveal also the effect of the initial compaction of the granular masses before release. The larger the initial compaction, the more mobile the centre of mass of the granular flows. Both grain size effect and compaction effect are explained by different particle agitations per unit of flow mass that cause different energy dissipations per unit of travel distance. The volume effect is explained by the backward accretion of the deposits that occurs wherever there is a change of slope (either gradual or abrupt). Our results are relevant for the understanding of the travel and deposition mechanisms of geophysical flows such as rock avalanches and pyroclastic flows

Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 106 kg s− 1), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is ~ 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by ~ 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 109 kg s− 1) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion (~ 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is ~ 20%, whereas that of maximum height is ~ 10%. This inter-comparison study has highlighted the different capabilities of 3D volcanic plume models, and identified key features of weak and strong plumes, including the roles of jet stability, entrainment efficiency, and particle non-equilibrium, which deserve future investigation in field, laboratory, and numerical studies.YJS was partially supported by the ERI Cooperative Research Program and KAKENHI (25750142). The computations of SK-3D were carried out in part on the Earth Simulator at the JAMSTEC and also on the Primergy RX200S6 at the Research Computer System, Kyushu University. AC was partially supported by a grant of the International Research Promotion Office Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo. AC, TEO and MC were partially supported by the EU-funded project MEDiterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MEDSUV; grant no. 308665). MC acknowledges CINECA award N. HP10BKFD9F (2013) for high performance computing resources and support. AVE acknowledges NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship EAR1250029, a U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall fellowship, and grant GID 61233 from NASA Ames Supercomputing Center

Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy

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