Characteristics of Real Futures Trading Networks

Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks, in which nodes are trading participants, and two nodes have a common edge if the two corresponding investors appear simultaneously in at least one trading record as a purchaser and a seller respectively. Then, we conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis on the constructed futures trading networks. Empirical results show that the futures trading networks exhibit features such as scale-free behavior with interesting odd-even-degree divergence in low-degree regions, small-world effect, hierarchical organization, power-law betweenness distribution, disassortative mixing, and shrinkage of both the average path length and the diameter as network size increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses real data to study futures trading networks, and we argue that the research results can shed light on the nature of real futures business.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures. Final version published in Physica

Power Grid Network Evolutions for Local Energy Trading

The shift towards an energy Grid dominated by prosumers (consumers and producers of energy) will inevitably have repercussions on the distribution infrastructure. Today it is a hierarchical one designed to deliver energy from large scale facilities to end-users. Tomorrow it will be a capillary infrastructure at the medium and Low Voltage levels that will support local energy trading among prosumers. In our previous work, we analyzed the Dutch Power Grid and made an initial analysis of the economic impact topological properties have on decentralized energy trading. In this paper, we go one step further and investigate how different networks topologies and growth models facilitate the emergence of a decentralized market. In particular, we show how the connectivity plays an important role in improving the properties of reliability and path-cost reduction. From the economic point of view, we estimate how the topological evolutions facilitate local electricity distribution, taking into account the main cost ingredient required for increasing network connectivity, i.e., the price of cabling

Hybrid integration of multilayer perceptrons and parametric models for reliability forecasting in the smart grid

The reliable power system operation is a major goal for electric utilities, which requires the accurate reliability forecasting to minimize the duration of power interruptions. Since weather conditions are usually the leading causes for power interruptions in the smart grid, especially for its distribution networks, this paper comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of distribution networks. Specially, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) based framework is proposed to forecast the daily numbers of sustained and momentary power interruptions in one distribution management area using time series of common weather data. First, the parametric regression models are implemented to analyze the relationship between the daily numbers of power interruptions and various common weather parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, air pressure, wind speed, and lightning. The selected weather parameters and corresponding parametric models are then integrated as inputs to formulate a MLP neural network model to predict the daily numbers of power interruptions. A modified extreme learning machine (ELM) based hierarchical learning algorithm is introduced for training the formulated model using realtime reliability data from an electric utility in Florida and common weather data from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). In addition, the sensitivity analysis is implemented to determine the various impacts of different weather parameters on the daily numbers of power interruptions

Quantum Google in a Complex Network

We investigate the behavior of the recently proposed quantum Google algorithm, or quantum PageRank, in large complex networks. Applying the quantum algorithm to a part of the real World Wide Web, we find that the algorithm is able to univocally reveal the underlying scale-free topology of the network and to clearly identify and order the most relevant nodes (hubs) of the graph according to their importance in the network structure. Moreover, our results show that the quantum PageRank algorithm generically leads to changes in the hierarchy of nodes. In addition, as compared to its classical counterpart, the quantum algorithm is capable to clearly highlight the structure of secondary hubs of the network, and to partially resolve the degeneracy in importance of the low lying part of the list of rankings, which represents a typical shortcoming of the classical PageRank algorithm. Complementary to this study, our analysis shows that the algorithm is able to clearly distinguish scale-free networks from other widespread and important classes of complex networks, such as Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi networks and hierarchical graphs. We show that the ranking capabilities of the quantum PageRank algorithm are related to an increased stability with respect to a variation of the damping parameter $\alpha$ that appears in the Google algorithm, and to a more clearly pronounced power-law behavior in the distribution of importance among the nodes, as compared to the classical algorithm. Finally, we study to which extent the increased sensitivity of the quantum algorithm persists under coordinated attacks of the most important nodes in scale-free and Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs

On scale-free and poly-scale behaviors of random hierarchical network

In this paper the question about statistical properties of block--hierarchical random matrices is raised for the first time in connection with structural characteristics of random hierarchical networks obtained by mipmapping procedure. In particular, we compute numerically the spectral density of large random adjacency matrices defined by a hierarchy of the Bernoulli distributions $\{q_1,q_2,...\}$ on matrix elements, where $q_{\gamma}$ depends on hierarchy level $\gamma$ as $q_{\gamma}=p^{-\mu \gamma}$ ($\mu>0$). For the spectral density we clearly see the free--scale behavior. We show also that for the Gaussian distributions on matrix elements with zero mean and variances $\sigma_{\gamma}=p^{-\nu \gamma}$, the tail of the spectral density, $\rho_G(\lambda)$, behaves as $\rho_G(\lambda) \sim |\lambda|^{-(2-\nu)/(1-\nu)}$ for $|\lambda|\to\infty$ and $0<\nu<1$, while for $\nu\ge 1$ the power--law behavior is terminated. We also find that the vertex degree distribution of such hierarchical networks has a poly--scale fractal behavior extended to a very broad range of scales.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures (paper is substantially revised