An Evidence Based Approach To Determining Residential Occupancy and its Role in Demand Response Management

AbstractThis article introduces a methodological approach for analysing time series data from multiple sensors in order to estimate home occupancy. The approach combines the Dempster-Shafer theory, which allows the fusion of ‘evidence’ from multiple sensors, with the Hidden Markov Model. The procedure addresses some of the practicalities of occupancy estimation including the blind estimation of sensor distributions during unoccupied and occupied states, and issues of occupancy inference when some sensors have missing data. The approach is applied to preliminary data from a residential family home on the North Coast of Scotland. Features derived from sensors that monitored electrical power, dew point temperature and indoor CO2 concentration were fused and the Hidden Markov Model applied to predict the occupancy profile. The approach shown is able to predict daytime occupancy, while effectively handling periods of missing sensor data, according to cross-validation with available ground truth information. Knowledge of occupancy is then fused with consumption behaviour and a simple metric developed to allow the assessment of how likely it is that a household can participate in demand response at different periods during the day. The benefits of demand response initiatives are qualitatively discussed. The approach could be used to assist in the transition towards more active energy citizens, as envisaged by the smart grid

Algorithms for sensor validation and multisensor fusion

Existing techniques for sensor validation and sensor fusion are often based on analytical sensor models. Such models can be arbitrarily complex and consequently Gaussian distributions are often assumed, generally with a detrimental effect on overall system performance. A holistic approach has therefore been adopted in order to develop two novel and complementary approaches to sensor validation and fusion based on empirical data. The first uses the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator to provide competitive sensor fusion. The new algorithm is shown to reliably detect and compensate for bias errors, spike errors, hardover faults, drift faults and erratic operation, affecting up to three of the five sensors in the array. The inherent smoothing action of the kernel estimator provides effective noise cancellation and the fused result is more accurate than the single 'best sensor'. A Genetic Algorithm has been used to optimise the Nadaraya-Watson fuser design. The second approach uses analytical redundancy to provide the on-line sensor status output μH∈[0,1], where μH=1 indicates the sensor output is valid and μH=0 when the sensor has failed. This fuzzy measure is derived from change detection parameters based on spectral analysis of the sensor output signal. The validation scheme can reliably detect a wide range of sensor fault conditions. An appropriate context dependent fusion operator can then be used to perform competitive, cooperative or complementary sensor fusion, with a status output from the fuser providing a useful qualitative indication of the status of the sensors used to derive the fused result. The operation of both schemes is illustrated using data obtained from an array of thick film metal oxide pH sensor electrodes. An ideal pH electrode will sense only the activity of hydrogen ions, however the selectivity of the metal oxide device is worse than the conventional glass electrode. The use of sensor fusion can therefore reduce measurement uncertainty by combining readings from multiple pH sensors having complementary responses. The array can be conveniently fabricated by screen printing sensors using different metal oxides onto a single substrate

Support Vector Machine for Network Intrusion and Cyber-Attack Detection

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Cyber-security threats are a growing concern in networked environments. The development of Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) is fundamental in order to provide extra level of security. We have developed an unsupervised anomaly-based IDS that uses statistical techniques to conduct the detection process. Despite providing many advantages, anomaly-based IDSs tend to generate a high number of false alarms. Machine Learning (ML) techniques have gained wide interest in tasks of intrusion detection. In this work, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is deemed as an ML technique that could complement the performance of our IDS, providing a second line of detection to reduce the number of false alarms, or as an alternative detection technique. We assess the performance of our IDS against one-class and two-class SVMs, using linear and non-linear forms. The results that we present show that linear two-class SVM generates highly accurate results, and the accuracy of the linear one-class SVM is very comparable, and it does not need training datasets associated with malicious data. Similarly, the results evidence that our IDS could benefit from the use of ML techniques to increase its accuracy when analysing datasets comprising of non-homogeneous features

Using metrics from multiple layers to detect attacks in wireless networks

The IEEE 802.11 networks are vulnerable to numerous wireless-specific attacks. Attackers can implement MAC address spoofing techniques to launch these attacks, while masquerading themselves behind a false MAC address. The implementation of Intrusion Detection Systems has become fundamental in the development of security infrastructures for wireless networks. This thesis proposes the designing a novel security system that makes use of metrics from multiple layers of observation to produce a collective decision on whether an attack is taking place. The Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is the data fusion technique used to combine the evidences from the different layers. A novel, unsupervised and self- adaptive Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) approach able to automatically adapt its beliefs assignment to the current characteristics of the wireless network is proposed. This BPA approach is composed of three different and independent statistical techniques, which are capable to identify the presence of attacks in real time. Despite the lightweight processing requirements, the proposed security system produces outstanding detection results, generating high intrusion detection accuracy and very low number of false alarms. A thorough description of the generated results, for all the considered datasets is presented in this thesis. The effectiveness of the proposed system is evaluated using different types of injection attacks. Regarding one of these attacks, to the best of the author knowledge, the security system presented in this thesis is the first one able to efficiently identify the Airpwn attack

Development of an unsupervised remote sensing methodology of detect surface leakage from terrestrial CO2 storage sites

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Context Aware Computing for The Internet of Things: A Survey

As we are moving towards the Internet of Things (IoT), the number of sensors deployed around the world is growing at a rapid pace. Market research has shown a significant growth of sensor deployments over the past decade and has predicted a significant increment of the growth rate in the future. These sensors continuously generate enormous amounts of data. However, in order to add value to raw sensor data we need to understand it. Collection, modelling, reasoning, and distribution of context in relation to sensor data plays critical role in this challenge. Context-aware computing has proven to be successful in understanding sensor data. In this paper, we survey context awareness from an IoT perspective. We present the necessary background by introducing the IoT paradigm and context-aware fundamentals at the beginning. Then we provide an in-depth analysis of context life cycle. We evaluate a subset of projects (50) which represent the majority of research and commercial solutions proposed in the field of context-aware computing conducted over the last decade (2001-2011) based on our own taxonomy. Finally, based on our evaluation, we highlight the lessons to be learnt from the past and some possible directions for future research. The survey addresses a broad range of techniques, methods, models, functionalities, systems, applications, and middleware solutions related to context awareness and IoT. Our goal is not only to analyse, compare and consolidate past research work but also to appreciate their findings and discuss their applicability towards the IoT.Comment: IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials Journal, 201

Enhancing Flight Delay Prediction through Feature Engineering in Machine Learning Classifiers: A Real Time Data Streams Case Study

The process of creating and selecting features from raw data to enhance the accuracy of machine learning models is referred to as feature engineering. In the context of real-time data streams, feature engineering becomes particularly important because the data is constantly changing and the model must be able to adapt quickly. A case study of using feature engineering in a flight information system is described in this paper. We used feature engineering to improve the performance of machine learning classifiers for predicting flight delays and describe various techniques for extracting and constructing features from the raw data, including time-based features, trend-based features, and error-based features. Before applying these techniques, we applied feature pre-processing techniques, including the CTAO algorithm for feature pre-processing, followed by the SCSO (Sand cat swarm optimization) algorithm for feature extraction and the Enhanced harmony search for feature optimization. The resultant feature set contained the 9 most relevant features for deciding whether a flight would be delayed or not. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of various classifiers using these engineered features and contrast the results with those obtained using raw features. The results show that feature engineering significantly improves the performance of the classifiers and allows for more accurate prediction of flight delays in real-time