A Comment on Argumentation

We use the theory of defaults and their meaning of [GS16] to develop (the outline of a) new theory of argumentation

MODELLING EXPECTATIONS WITH GENEFER- AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPROACH

Economic modelling of financial markets means to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be the dominant driving forces. Therefore it is necessary to focus on how agents form their expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. AgentsÆ bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule-Bases. E. g. if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to put their relationship in words his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: "IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate is larger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD". æLowÆ and ælargerÆ are fuzzy terms which give a gradual linguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExplorER) has been developed for designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule-Base Generating and Rule-Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule-Base.

An information assistant system for the prevention of tunnel vision in crisis management

In the crisis management environment, tunnel vision is a set of bias in decision makers’ cognitive process which often leads to incorrect understanding of the real crisis situation, biased perception of information, and improper decisions. The tunnel vision phenomenon is a consequence of both the challenges in the task and the natural limitation in a human being’s cognitive process. An information assistant system is proposed with the purpose of preventing tunnel vision. The system serves as a platform for monitoring the on-going crisis event. All information goes through the system before arrives at the user. The system enhances the data quality, reduces the data quantity and presents the crisis information in a manner that prevents or repairs the user’s cognitive overload. While working with such a system, the users (crisis managers) are expected to be more likely to stay aware of the actual situation, stay open minded to possibilities, and make proper decisions

Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events

Handling Defeasibilities in Action Domains

Representing defeasibility is an important issue in common sense reasoning. In reasoning about action and change, this issue becomes more difficult because domain and action related defeasible information may conflict with general inertia rules. Furthermore, different types of defeasible information may also interfere with each other during the reasoning. In this paper, we develop a prioritized logic programming approach to handle defeasibilities in reasoning about action. In particular, we propose three action languages {\cal AT}^{0}, {\cal AT}^{1} and {\cal AT}^{2} which handle three types of defeasibilities in action domains named defeasible constraints, defeasible observations and actions with defeasible and abnormal effects respectively. Each language with a higher superscript can be viewed as an extension of the language with a lower superscript. These action languages inherit the simple syntax of {\cal A} language but their semantics is developed in terms of transition systems where transition functions are defined based on prioritized logic programs. By illustrating various examples, we show that our approach eventually provides a powerful mechanism to handle various defeasibilities in temporal prediction and postdiction. We also investigate semantic properties of these three action languages and characterize classes of action domains that present more desirable solutions in reasoning about action within the underlying action languages.Comment: 49 pages, 1 figure, to be appeared in journal Theory and Practice Logic Programmin