1,817 research outputs found
Integrating Human Decisions in the Presence of Byzantines: An Evolutionary Game Theoretical Approach
A hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning with application to multi-label learning
We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning,
called H2PC. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then
performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges.
The algorithm is based on divide-and-conquer constraint-based subroutines to
learn the local structure around a target variable. We conduct two series of
experimental comparisons of H2PC against Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC), which is
currently the most powerful state-of-the-art algorithm for Bayesian network
structure learning. First, we use eight well-known Bayesian network benchmarks
with various data sizes to assess the quality of the learned structure returned
by the algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that H2PC outperforms MMHC in
terms of goodness of fit to new data and quality of the network structure with
respect to the true dependence structure of the data. Second, we investigate
H2PC's ability to solve the multi-label learning problem. We provide
theoretical results to characterize and identify graphically the so-called
minimal label powersets that appear as irreducible factors in the joint
distribution under the faithfulness condition. The multi-label learning problem
is then decomposed into a series of multi-class classification problems, where
each multi-class variable encodes a label powerset. H2PC is shown to compare
favorably to MMHC in terms of global classification accuracy over ten
multi-label data sets covering different application domains. Overall, our
experiments support the conclusions that local structural learning with H2PC in
the form of local neighborhood induction is a theoretically well-motivated and
empirically effective learning framework that is well suited to multi-label
learning. The source code (in R) of H2PC as well as all data sets used for the
empirical tests are publicly available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1101.5184 by other author
The influence of topology and information diffusion on networked game dynamics
This thesis studies the influence of topology and information diffusion on the strategic interactions of agents in a population. It shows that there exists a reciprocal relationship between the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of a population of players. In order to evaluate the influence of topology and information flow on networked game dynamics, strategic games are simulated on populations of players where the players are distributed in a non-homogeneous spatial arrangement. The initial component of this research consists of a study of evolution of the coordination of strategic players, where the topology or the structure of the population is shown to be critical in defining the coordination among the players. Next, the effect of network topology on the evolutionary stability of strategies is studied in detail. Based on the results obtained, it is shown that network topology plays a key role in determining the evolutionary stability of a particular strategy in a population of players. Then, the effect of network topology on the optimum placement of strategies is studied. Using genetic optimisation, it is shown that the placement of strategies in a spatially distributed population of players is crucial in maximising the collective payoff of the population. Exploring further the effect of network topology and information diffusion on networked games, the non-optimal or bounded rationality of players is modelled using topological and directed information flow of the network. Based on the topologically distributed bounded rationality model, it is shown that the scale-free and small-world networks emerge in randomly connected populations of sub-optimal players. Thus, the topological and information theoretic interpretations of bounded rationality suggest the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of socio-economical structures are cyclically interdependent
The influence of topology and information diffusion on networked game dynamics
This thesis studies the influence of topology and information diffusion on the strategic interactions of agents in a population. It shows that there exists a reciprocal relationship between the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of a population of players. In order to evaluate the influence of topology and information flow on networked game dynamics, strategic games are simulated on populations of players where the players are distributed in a non-homogeneous spatial arrangement. The initial component of this research consists of a study of evolution of the coordination of strategic players, where the topology or the structure of the population is shown to be critical in defining the coordination among the players. Next, the effect of network topology on the evolutionary stability of strategies is studied in detail. Based on the results obtained, it is shown that network topology plays a key role in determining the evolutionary stability of a particular strategy in a population of players. Then, the effect of network topology on the optimum placement of strategies is studied. Using genetic optimisation, it is shown that the placement of strategies in a spatially distributed population of players is crucial in maximising the collective payoff of the population. Exploring further the effect of network topology and information diffusion on networked games, the non-optimal or bounded rationality of players is modelled using topological and directed information flow of the network. Based on the topologically distributed bounded rationality model, it is shown that the scale-free and small-world networks emerge in randomly connected populations of sub-optimal players. Thus, the topological and information theoretic interpretations of bounded rationality suggest the topology, information diffusion and the strategic interactions of socio-economical structures are cyclically interdependent
A survey of random processes with reinforcement
The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random
walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is
on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are
discussed in statistics, biology, economics and a number of other areas.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-PS094 in the Probability
Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
BNAIC 2008:Proceedings of BNAIC 2008, the twentieth Belgian-Dutch Artificial Intelligence Conference
Agoric computation: trust and cyber-physical systems
In the past two decades advances in miniaturisation and economies of scale have led to the emergence of billions of connected components that have provided both a spur and a blueprint for the development of smart products acting in specialised environments which are uniquely identifiable, localisable, and capable of autonomy. Adopting the computational perspective of multi-agent systems (MAS) as a technological abstraction married with the engineering perspective of cyber-physical systems (CPS) has provided fertile ground for designing, developing and deploying software applications in smart automated context such as manufacturing, power grids, avionics, healthcare and logistics, capable of being decentralised, intelligent, reconfigurable, modular, flexible, robust, adaptive and responsive. Current agent technologies are, however, ill suited for information-based environments, making it difficult to formalise and implement multiagent systems based on inherently dynamical functional concepts such as trust and reliability, which present special challenges when scaling from small to large systems of agents. To overcome such challenges, it is useful to adopt a unified approach which we term agoric computation, integrating logical, mathematical and programming concepts towards the development of agent-based solutions based on recursive, compositional principles, where smaller systems feed via directed information flows into larger hierarchical systems that define their global environment. Considering information as an integral part of the environment naturally defines a web of operations where components of a systems are wired in some way and each set of inputs and outputs are allowed to carry some value. These operations are stateless abstractions and procedures that act on some stateful cells that cumulate partial information, and it is possible to compose such abstractions into higher-level ones, using a publish-and-subscribe interaction model that keeps track of update messages between abstractions and values in the data. In this thesis we review the logical and mathematical basis of such abstractions and take steps towards the software implementation of agoric modelling as a framework for simulation and verification of the reliability of increasingly complex systems, and report on experimental results related to a few select applications, such as stigmergic interaction in mobile robotics, integrating raw data into agent perceptions, trust and trustworthiness in orchestrated open systems, computing the epistemic cost of trust when reasoning in networks of agents seeded with contradictory information, and trust models for distributed ledgers in the Internet of Things (IoT); and provide a roadmap
for future developments of our research
The diffusion of process innovation in the UK financial sector: an empirical analysis of automated teller machine (ATM) diffusion
Recent policy initiatives have identified that the diffusion of innovation constitutes an
important component in technical change and progress and is the impetus behind
changes in firm productivity. To date, however, the main emphasis of economists has
been on the diffusion of process innovations in the industrial sector with diffusion in the
financial sector either ignored or, at best, summarised by a number of stylised facts
relating to the spread of information.
The objective of this thesis is to explore the inter-firm determinants of ATM adoption
and diffusion in the UK financial sector and identify firm-specific and market factors in
the diffusion process. The empirical analysis draws on duration analysis which
represents the current state-of-art modelling approach to inter-firm diffusion. This
approach conceptualises inter-firm diffusion as a cross-section of durations of nonadoption
from which, most importantly, hypothesised factors (or `covariates') can be
examined by their significance or otherwise on the conditional probability of adoption.
The main findings of this thesis support the stylised fact often made in the diffusion
literature that the inter-firm diffusion curve is sigmoid and characterised by a nonmonotonic
hazard function. Furthermore the empirical analysis supports the hypothesis
that firm-specific characteristics and expectations have played a crucial role in the interfirm
diffusion of ATMs. In addition, the results indicate that the diffusion of ATMs in
the UK has been characterised by the existence of positive network externalities. The
results are also shown to be robust across a number of model specifications and
assumptions concerning the time-path of covariates
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