Methodological bases concept of active reinsurance regulation on the basis of fuzzy cognitive maps

У статті розглядається сутнісна характеристика та наводиться математична формалізація механізму регулювання активного перестрахування України на основі побудови нечіткої когнітивної карти, надається кількісна та якісна оцінка причинно-наслідкових зв’язків між напрямками (країнами) розподілу страхових премій. Наводяться пропозиції в розрізі формування інформаційної бази прийняття обґрунтованих управлінських рішень щодо доцільності передачі страхових премій за відповідними напрямками (країнами) в умовах невизначеності за допомогою елементів нечіткої логіки. Проводиться дослідження закономірностей функціонування вітчизняного ринку перестрахування як складної динамічної системи шляхом розрахунку та аналізу статистичних показників консонансу та взаємодії між концептами (країнами). Наводиться комплексний аналіз взаємозв’язків між ланками досліджуваного складного комплексу (ринку перестрахування) з метою ідентифікації найбільш пріоритетних центів впливу.The article is stressed on the characteristic and mathematical formalization the regulation mechanism of active reinsurance in Ukraine on the basis of fuzzy cognitive maps whitch shows cause-and-effect relations between the directions (countries) the distribution of the insurance premiums. It is proposed the formation of the information base decision-making on expediency of insurance premiums transfer in the relevant areas (countries) in the conditions of uncertainty with the help of the fuzzy logic elements. It is stressed on the regularities of the functioning the domestic reinsurance market as a complex dynamic system by calculation and analysis of statistical indicators and interaction between concepts (countries). It is proposed the comprehensive analysis the relationship between the units of the investigated complex (reinsurance market) to identifying the most priority cents influence

Public Attitudes to the Welfare of Broiler Chickens

This paper reports results from two workshops held in York, England that investigated public attitudes towards the welfare of broiler chickens. At the outset the majority of participants admitted that they knew little about how broiler chickens are reared and were shocked at some of the facts presented to them. Cognitive mapping and aspects of Q methodology were used to reveal the range of variables that participants believed affected chicken welfare, the causal relationships between those variables, and what variables were considered most and least important. While some participants focused on the importance of meeting basic needs such as access to food, water, light and ventilation, others highlighted the role of welfare regulations and public opinion. Factor analysis of the results from a ranking exercise identified two factor groups, “Factor one - The bigger picture” and “Factor two – Basic animal rights”. The findings demonstrate that some members of the public are both interested in learning about how their food is produced and concerned about the conditions faced by broiler chickens. Some are able to see clear links between public opinion and the welfare of farm animals, an important connection if consumer behaviour is to contribute towards improving animal welfare.Animal welfare, broiler chickens, cognitive mapping, public attitudes, Q methodology., Livestock Production/Industries, Consumer/Household Economics,

Inverse Kinematics and Trajectory Planning Analysis of a Robotic Manipulator

In this work, we pretended to show and compare three methodologies used to solve the inverse kinematics of a 3 DOF robotic manipulator. The approaches are the algebraic method through Matlabreg; solve function, Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Another aspect considered is the trajectory planning of the manipulator, which allows the user to control the desired movement in the joint space. We compare polynomials of third, fourth and fifth orders for the solution of the chosen coordinates. The results show that the ANN method presented best results due to its configuration to show only feasible joint values, as also do the GA. In the trajectory planning the analysis lead to the fifth-order polynomial, which showed the smoothest solution

Reasoning with linguistic preferences using NPN logic

Negative-positive-neutral logic provides an alternative framework for fuzzy cognitive maps development and decision analysis. This paper reviews basic notion of NPN logic and NPN relations and proposes adaptive approach to causality weights assessment. It employs linguistic models of causality weights activated by measurement-based fuzzy cognitive maps' concepts values. These models allow for quasi-dynamical adaptation to the change of concepts values, providing deeper understanding of possible side effects. Since in the real-world environments almost every decision has its consequences, presenting very valuable portion of information upon which we also make our decisions, the knowledge about the side effects enables more reliable decision analysis and directs actions of decision maker

Evaluating the quality of planning in new product development projects

The research and development industry shifts significant resources, from physical products to software. This is triggered by the need to stay competitive in a tough market. However, the poor performance of new product development in the field of software development may restrict this trend. Following a research stream that focuses on NPD planning, we introduce the quality of planning evaluation model (QPEM) and a knowledge base for improving the quality of planning evaluation. QPEM suggests planning quality should be evaluated using two distinct and complementary approaches of top-down and bottom-up for enhancing the accuracy of planning: a) an established measure that assesses 16 planning products and b) a novel measure that assesses 55 factors that affect project performance. This second measure uses cognitive maps, which is a methodology based on expert knowledge that graphically describes the behaviour of a system, and represents the project manager’s know-how and R&D Management Conference 2017, 1 - 5 July 2017, Leuven, Belgium characteristics, technological expertise, top management support, enterprise environmental factors, and the quality of methods and tools in a form that corresponds closely with humans’ perceptions. The alignment between these two approaches is demonstrated through multiple case studies

ZASTOSOWANIE ROZMYTEJ MAPY KOGNITYWNEJ W PROGNOZOWANIU EFEKTYWNOŚCI PRACY WYPOŻYCZALNI ROWEROWYCH

This paper proposes application of fuzzy cognitive map with evolutionary learning algorithms to model a system for prediction of effectiveness of bike sharing systems. Fuzzy cognitive map was constructed based on historical data and next used to forecast the number of cyclists and customers of bike sharing systems on three consecutive days. The learning process was realized with the use of Individually Directional Evolutionary Algorithm IDEA and Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm RCGA. Simulation analysis of the system for prediction of effectiveness of bike sharing systems was carried out with the use of software developed in JAVA.W pracy zaproponowano zastosowanie rozmytej mapy kognitywnej wraz z ewolucyjnymi algorytmami uczenia do modelowania systemu prognozowania efektywności pracy wypożyczalni rowerowych. Na podstawie danych historycznych zbudowano rozmytą mapę kognitywną, którą następnie zastosowano do prognozowania liczby rowerzystów i klientów wypożyczalni w trzech kolejnych dniach. Proces uczenia zrealizowano z zastosowaniem indywidualnego kierunkowego algorytmu ewolucyjnego IDEA oraz algorytmu genetycznego z kodowaniem zmiennoprzecinkowym RCGA. Analizę symulacyjną systemu prognozowania efektywności pracy wypożyczalni rowerowych przeprowadzono przy pomocy oprogramowania opracowanego w technologii JAVA

Health, Safety, Environment and Ergonomic Improvement in Energy Sector Using an Integrated Fuzzy Cognitive Map–Bayesian Network Model

© 2018, Taiwan Fuzzy Systems Association and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Health, safety, environment and ergonomics (HSEE) are important factors for any organization. In fact, organizations always have to assess their compliance in these factors to the required benchmarks and take proactive actions to improve them if required. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy cognitive map–Bayesian network (BN) model in order to assist organizations in undertaking this process. The fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) method is used for constructing graphical models of BN to ascertain the relationships between the inputs and the impact which they will have on the quantified HSEE. Using the notion of Fuzzy logic assists us to work with humans and their linguistic inputs in the process of experts’ opinion solicitation. The noisy-OR method and the EM are used to ascertain the conditional probability between the inputs and quantifying the HSEE value. Using this, we find out that the most influential input factor on HSEE quantification which can then be managed for improving an organization’s compliance to HSEE. Finding the same influential input factor in both BN models which are based on the noisy-OR method and EM demonstrate how FCM is useful in constructing a reliable BN model. Leveraging the power of Bayesian network in modelling HSEE and augmenting it with FCM is the main contribution of this research work which opens the new line of research in the area of HSE management

Methodological bases concept of active reinsurance regulation on the basis of fuzzy cognitive maps

У статті розглядається сутнісна характеристика та наводиться математична формалізація механізму регулювання активного перестрахування України на основі побудови нечіткої когнітивної карти, надається кількісна та якісна оцінка причинно-наслідкових зв’язків між напрямками (країнами) розподілу страхових премій. Наводяться пропозиції в розрізі формування інформаційної бази прийняття обґрунтованих управлінських рішень щодо доцільності передачі страхових премій за відповідними напрямками (країнами) в умовах невизначеності за допомогою елементів нечіткої логіки. Проводиться дослідження закономірностей функціонування вітчизняного ринку перестрахування як складної динамічної системи шляхом розрахунку та аналізу статистичних показників консонансу та взаємодії між концептами (країнами). Наводиться комплексний аналіз взаємозв’язків між ланками досліджуваного складного комплексу (ринку перестрахування) з метою ідентифікації найбільш пріоритетних центів впливу.The article is stressed on the characteristic and mathematical formalization the regulation mechanism of active reinsurance in Ukraine on the basis of fuzzy cognitive maps whitch shows cause-and-effect relations between the directions (countries) the distribution of the insurance premiums. It is proposed the formation of the information base decision-making on expediency of insurance premiums transfer in the relevant areas (countries) in the conditions of uncertainty with the help of the fuzzy logic elements. It is stressed on the regularities of the functioning the domestic reinsurance market as a complex dynamic system by calculation and analysis of statistical indicators and interaction between concepts (countries). It is proposed the comprehensive analysis the relationship between the units of the investigated complex (reinsurance market) to identifying the most priority cents influence