Connectivity between damage to physical infrastructure and social science, The: a new field study protocol concept

2016 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.The primary objective of this thesis is to introduce a field study methodology that will be calibrated over the next several years to enable researchers to collect data in the field that can be used to better understand and quantify community resilience. Specifically, a key objective is to provide a mechanism to link damage to the physical infrastructure to social and economic dimensions of a community in a measurable way. Although there have been several past attempts at creating a common post-disaster field study protocol, none of them have attempted to quantify community resilience in a quantitative manner that can be used for risk and resilience analysis. The methodology explained in this thesis is unique because it discusses potential metrics that can be used to quantify community resilience and describes methods of quantifying these metrics using field data. These metrics come from a combination of disciplines including engineering, sociology, and economics. This work combines a literature review of past field study protocols with perceived data requirements in order to outline a field study methodology that can be used for disasters (primarily natural; not anthropogenic) of any type including tornados, hurricanes, flood, tsunamis, wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, and earthquakes. Algorithms were derived that include the ability to process raw field study data in order to create probabilistic models of resilience metrics (i.e., fragility functions). These algorithms were then demonstrated using existing field data related to population dislocation caused by Hurricane Andrew. Finally, a community resilience field study was conducted five years into the recovery process in order to investigate and model the long term effects of the May 22, 2011 tornado that occurred in Joplin, MO. The planning and execution of this study is described and the data that was gathered is used to provide an illustrative example of the interconnectivity between the physical damage and socio-economic consequences

Public Servants\u27 Perceptions of the Cybersecurity Posture of the Local Government in Puerto Rico

The absence of legislation, the lack of a standard cybersecurity framework, and the failure to adopt a resilient cybersecurity posture can be detrimental to the availability, confidentiality, and integrity of municipal information systems. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to understand the cybersecurity posture of municipalities from the perception of public servants serving in information technology (IT) leadership roles in highly populated municipalities in the San Juan-Carolina-Caguas Metropolitan Statistical Area of Puerto Rico. The study was also used to address key factors influencing the cybersecurity posture of these municipalities. The theoretical framework was open system theory used in combination with a conceptual framework encompassing key dimensions influencing digital government. Data were collected using semistructured interviews with 10 public servants working in IT leadership positions in a municipal setting in Puerto Rico. Data analysis involved horizontalization, reduction, elimination, clustering, thematizing, validation, and development of individual and composite textural descriptions. Participants reported that the cybersecurity posture of their municipalities was resilient. Participants also reported that technological changes, politics, the economy, management support, and processes were key elements to achieve a resilient posture. Findings may be used to empower elected officials, policymakers, public servants, and practitioners to manage and improve elements affecting cybersecurity with the goal of achieving a resilient posture to deliver cybersecurity as a public good

Giving life to the map can save more lives. Wildfire scenario with interoperable simulations

Abstract. In the Mediterranean region, drier and hotter summers are leading to more likely and severe wildfires. The authors propose an innovative approach for situational awareness by giving life to maps and exploiting interoperable GIS, hazard models, simulations, and interconnection analysis processes aimed to enhance preparedness and strengthen the resilience of responding organizations. The information related to a virtual city and its countryside has been implemented in the terrain of simulation systems. The TIGER wildfire model software has been adapted to a scenario where districts, refugee camps and critical infrastructures can be impacted by a fire and has been linked to a smoke dispersion model, and associated impacts to the electricity network and roads. The transfer of computed fire propagation and combustion data to the AI-powered SWORD simulation enable more accurate computing of damage and loss. In SWORD, civil protection, military assets and humanitarian actions can be performed for training and operation preparation. The simulation data about fire and assets' deployments can feed a web app map or a command and control system, thus providing situational awareness for optimal decision-making, and analysis about people in danger, network interconnections and potential service disruption. Disaster managers and commanders can interact with simulated assets performing their chosen courses of action and analyse the outcomes.In conclusion, tests in a wildfire case study demonstrated a high level of interoperability among those systems and the possibility to provide updated situational awareness leading to better emergency preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience building, finally contributing to save more lives.</p

Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies

Integrating Climate Hazards & Economic Development: Recommendations for Fayetteville, NC

This report examines the state of hazard mitigation and economic development within the City of Fayetteville by focusing on the planning process and risk assessment elements of the regional hazard mitigation plan and economic development strategy through plan quality and plan interconnectivity analysis. To accomplish this task, this report begins with a literature review of current definitions and elements of hazard mitigation planning, economic development, economic resiliency, and plan quality analysis and plan interconnectivity; additionally, several economic resiliency documents are discussed to place this report with that body of work. A regional profile provides context for the City’s locational, demographic, climate, and economic status. The plan analysis section features a modified combination of the Berke & Godschalk plan evaluation criteria and the Kerr-Tarr report’s plan linking framework. The Hazard Profiles section represents a condensed version of the hazards profiles and climate risks identified in the Cumberland-Hoke Hazard Mitigation Plan and the Cumberland County Climate Resiliency Plan, while the spatial analysis evaluations the geographic location of these climate risks and economic indicators. The SWOT analysis incorporates the strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities from the Southern Economic Development Commission’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, the Competitive Realities report, and the Cumberland County Climate Resiliency Plan and informs the implications and recommendations section, which synthesizes the results of the report’s analysis with other local plans which govern the policy outlook with the City and provides recommendations moving forward for better plan evaluation and implementation.Master of City and Regional Plannin

Securities clearance and settlement systems - a guide to best practices

As an essential part of a nation's financial sector infrastructure, securities clearance, and settlement systems must be closely integrated with national payment systems, so that safety, soundness, certainty, and efficiency can be achieved at a cost acceptable to all participants. Central banks have paid considerable attention to payment systems, but securities clearance, and settlement systems have only recently been subjected to rigorous assessment. The Western Hemisphere Payments and Securities Clearance and Settlement Initiative (WHI), led by the World Bank, and in cooperation with the Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA), gave the authors a unique opportunity to observe how various countries in Latin America, and the Caribbean undertake securities clearance, and settlement. To do so, the authors developed a practical, and implementable assessment methodology, covering key issues that affect the quality of such systems. In this paper they discuss the objectives, scope, and content of a typical securities system, identify the elements that influence the system's quality, and show how their assessment methodology works. They focus on the development of core principles, and minimum standards for integrated systems of payments, and securities clearance and settlement. Their paper fills a gap by providing an evaluation tool for assessors of such systems, especially those who must assess evolving systems in developing, and transition economies. Essentially, an assessment involves a structured analysis to answer four related questions: 1) What are the objective, and scope of a securities clearance and settlement system? 2) Who are the participants, what roles do they play, and what expectations do they have? 3) What procedures are required to satisfy the participants'needs? 4) What inherent risks are involved, and how can they be mitigated at an acceptable cost?Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Securities Markets Policy&Regulation,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Settlement of Investment Disputes,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Optimizing Interconnectivity among Networks under Attacks

Networks may need to be interconnected for various reasons such as inter-organizational communication, redundant connectivity, increasing data-rate and minimizing delay or packet-loss, etc. However, the trustworthiness of an added interconnection link cannot be taken for granted due to the presence of attackers who may compromise the security of an interconnected network by intercepting the interconnections. Namely, an intercepted interconnection link may not be secured due to the data manipulations by attackers. In the first part of this dissertation, the number of interconnections between the two networks is optimized for maximizing the data-rate and minimizing the packet-loss under the threat of security attacks. The optimization of the interconnectivity considering the security attack is formulated using a rate-distortion optimization setting, as originally introduced by Claude E. Shannon in the information theory. In particular, each intercepted interconnection is modeled as a noisy communication channel where the attackers may manipulate the data by flipping and erasing of data bits, and then the total capacity for any given number of interconnections is calculated. By exploiting such formulation, the optimal number of interconnections between two networks is found under network administrators data-rate and packet-loss requirement, and most importantly, without compromising the data security. It is concluded analytically and verified by simulations under certain conditions, increasing interconnections beyond an optimal number would not be beneficial concerning the data-rates and packet-loss. In the second part of this dissertation, the vulnerability of the interconnected network is analyzed by a probabilistic model that maps the intensity of physical attacks to network component failure distributions. Also, assuming the network is susceptible to the attack propagation, the resiliency of the network is modeled by the influence model and epidemic model. Finally, a stochastic model is proposed to track the node failure dynamics in a network considering dependency with power failures. Besides, the cascading failure in the power grid is analyzed with a data-driven model that reproduces the evolution of power-transmission line failure in power grids. To summarize, the optimal interconnectivity among networks is analyzed under security attacks, and the dynamic interactions in an interconnected network are investigated under various physical and logical attacks. The proper application of this work would add the minimum number of inter-network connections between two networks without compromising the data security. The optimal number interconnections would meet network administrator’s requirement and minimize cost (both security and monetary) associated with unnecessary connections. This work can also be used to estimate the reliability of a communication network under different types of physical attacks independently and also by incorporating the dynamics of power failures

Antifragility Analysis and Measurement Framework for Systems of Systems

The twenty-first century is defined by the social and technical hazards we face. A hazardous situation is a condition, or event, that threatens the well-being of people, organizations, societies, environments, and property. The most extreme of the hazards are considered X-Events and are an exogenous source of extreme stress to a system. X-Events can also be the unintended outputs of a system with both positive (serendipitous) and negative (catastrophic) consequences. Systems can vary in their ability to withstand these stress events. This ability exists on a continuum of fragility that ranges from fragile (degrading with stress), to robust (unchanged by stress), to antifragile (improving with stress). The state of the art does not include a method for analyzing or measuring fragility. Given that what we measure we will improve, the absence of a measurement approach limits the effectiveness of governance in making our systems less fragile and more robust if not antifragile. The authors present an antifragile system simulation model, and propose a framework for analyzing and measuring antifragility based on system of systems concepts. The framework reduces a multidimensional concept of fragility into a two-dimensional continuous interval scale