A Risk Management Model for Merger and Acquisitio

In this paper, a merger and acquisition risk management model is proposed for considering risk factors in the merger and acquisition activities. The proposed model aims to maximize the probability of success in merger and acquisition activities by managing and reducing the associated risks. The modeling of the proposed merger and acquisition risk management model is described and illustrated in this paper. The illustration result shows that the proposed model can help to screen the best target company with minimum associated risks in the merger and acquisition activity

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

IT Portfolio Investment Evaluation on E-Commerce Solution Alternatives

Our study examines the group decision-making process and proposes a multi-criteria framework for e-commerce solution investment in information technology (IT) portfolios. First, the evaluation criteria that fit in the IT evaluation context are constructed. Second, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is employed to determine the weights of decision criteria and the benefit score to the company. Third, the Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (FMCDM) approach is used to synthesize the team decision. Finally, an empirical case of five proposed portal solutions in a car manufacturing company is used to exemplify the approach

WHY FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH FOR TRANSPORT PROBLEMS?

The evaluation of transport projects has become increasingly complex. Different aspects have to be taken into account and the consequences of the problems are usually far reaching and the different policy alternatives are numerous and difficult to predict. Several pressure or action groups have also emerged causing an even more complex decision making process. The use of multi criteria analysis for the evaluation of transport projects has increased due to this increasing complexity of the problem situation. At the same time, the importance of stakeholders within this evaluation process should have been recognized. Researches on transport projects are generally carried out to provide information to policymakers that have to operate within restrictive parameters (political, economical, social, etc…). Researchers should therefore take greater account of the different priorities of stakeholders such as policymakers, private enterprises and households. These stakeholders should be incorporated explicitly in the evaluation process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is one of the Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making methods. It can be applied in a very broad range of applications of decision problems. Logistics, urban planning, public politics, marketing, finance, education, economics are a part of this wide application area. In transport subjects it can be used for the evaluation of transport policy measures or decision making problems. Due to its wide range application area, it has been an exciting research subject for many different field researchers. The aim of this paper is to introduce AHP method and to offer how to benefit it for the preference of urban planners in transport problems. This paper is composed of two main parts. First part consists of the literature survey regarding with the AHP and its application areas. The advantage of methods had been mentioned. Second part focuses on a sample application of AHP technique. The study uses AHP technique to determine the selection criteria in the transhipment port selection decision-making process. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Multi criteria analysis, Transshipment port selection.

Synthetic rating system for railway bridge management

Railway bridges deteriorate with age. Factors such as environmental effects on different materials of a bridge, variation of loads, fatigue, etc will reduce the remaining life of bridges. Bridges are currently rated individually for maintenance and repair actions according to the structural conditions of their elements. Dealing with thousands of bridges and several factors that cause deterioration, makes the rating process extremely complicated. Current simplified but practical rating methods are not based on an accurate structural condition assessment system. On the other hand, the sophisticated but more accurate methods are only used for a single bridge or particular types of bridges. It is therefore necessary to develop a practical and accurate system which will be capable of rating a network of railway bridges. This paper introduces a new method for rating a network of bridges based on their current and future structural conditions. The method identifies typical bridges representing a group of railway bridges. The most crucial agents will be determined and categorized to criticality and vulnerability factors. Classification based on structural configuration, loading, and critical deterioration factors will be conducted. Finally a rating method for a network of railway bridges that takes into account the effects of damaged structural components due to variations in loading and environmental conditions on the integrity of the whole structure will be proposed. The outcome of this research is expected to significantly improve the rating methods for railway bridges by considering the unique characteristics of different factors and incorporating the correlation between them

A fuzzy-based evaluation of financial risks in build-own-operate-transfer water supply projects

The build–own–operate–transfer (BOOT) scheme is widely used for the provision of new bulk water supply. However, this scheme is complex and carries significant financial risks because of the characteristics of the water sector and the involvement of public-private stakeholders with new and extended responsibilities, large private capital, and long contract duration. Drawing on the Nungua Seawater Desalination Plant (NSDP) in Ghana, this study seeks to identify and assess the critical financial risks associated with BOOT water supply projects and evaluate the financial risk level of the NSDP project. The risks and their relative criticality on the NSDP project are investigated by using a questionnaire survey method. The questionnaire was formulated with a set of 18 risks derived from extant literature and project documentation. Perceived critical financial risks affecting the NSDP project were assessed by a team of experts who had direct involvement in the project. A fuzzy synthetic evaluation suggests that the project is financially risky and that all the risks are critical to the project. Bankruptcy of consortium members, unfavorable economy of the host country, uncertainty in tariff adjustment of water products, rate of return restrictions, and availability problem of private capital are the five most highly-ranked risks. The fuzzy technique is used to represent and model experiential knowledge of the survey participants and to address the fuzziness of their expert judgments. The study’s results facilitate prioritization of risks and a comprehensive risk management program during the lifecycle of the case project and future projects. The fuzzy technique is suitable for early phases of BOOT projects to prioritize the risks that require a detailed analysis and to predict the risk level of a project

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes