Impact of the CAP Reform on Small-Scaled Grassland Regions in Bavaria, Germany

The CAP reform of 2003 will change farmer's business environment in Europe. This paper analyses the impact of the reform on the land use in southern German grassland regions. The assessment will be based on model calculations for two typical grassland regions. Each study area represents one village with its specific farm structure and natural conditions. These regions differ in their excellence with respect to agricultural use. In Southern Germany small to medium sized family farms is the most frequent type of farming. We use a regional land-use model that conceives farms as independent agents aiming at maximum individual utility. Farm agents optimize their farm organisation with the help of a linear-programming algorithm that takes into account natural, economic and personal restrictions. Interactions between farms take place on the land market, which is modelled as an equilibrium market. It becomes clear that the CAP reform of 2003 has various significant consequences with respect to grassland use. In particular the decreasing profitability of dairy farming will relatively promote low-intensive forms of grassland use, including mulching. If some payments (e. g. agri-environmental payments) remain coupled to livestock production area-wide agriculture can be maintained even in marginal areas. Land rents will generally increase in more marginal areas due to the effects of decoupling.CAP-reform, linear programming, land-market simulation, agent-based modelling, farmers attitude, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

The AtollGame Experience: from Knowledge Engineering to a Computer-Assisted Role Playing Game

This paper presents the methodology developed to collect, understand and merge viewpoints coming from different stakeholders in order to build a shared and formal representation of the studied system dealing with groundwater management in the low-lying atoll of Tarawa (Republic of Kiribati). The methodology relies on three successive stages. First, a Global Targeted Appraisal focuses on social group leaders in order to collect different standpoints and their articulated mental models. These collective models are partly validated through Individual Activities Surveys focusing on behavioural patterns of individual islanders. Then, these models are merged into a single conceptual one using qualitative analysis software. This conceptual model is further simplified in order to create a computer-assisted role-playing game.Knowledge Elicitation, Associative Network, Ontology, Water Management, Pacific, Tarawa

Advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling: findings from the 11th Workshop on Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling

Large-scale hydrological modelling has become increasingly wide-spread during the last decade. An annual workshop series on large-scale hydrological modelling has provided, since 1997, a forum to the German-speaking community for discussing recent developments and achievements in this research area. In this paper we present the findings from the 2007 workshop which focused on advances and visions in large-scale hydrological modelling. We identify the state of the art, difficulties and research perspectives with respect to the themes "sensitivity of model results", "integrated modelling" and "coupling of processes in hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere". Some achievements in large-scale hydrological modelling during the last ten years are presented together with a selection of remaining challenges for the future

Impact of the CAP reform on small-scale grassland regions

This paper presents a regional land-use model that conceives farms as independent agents aiming at maximum individual utility. Farm agents optimize their utility with the help of a linear-programming algorithm that takes into account natural, economic and personal restrictions. Interactions between farms take place on the land market, which is modelled as an equilibrium market. The model is applied in three typical grassland regions in southern Bavaria. The results indicate that the CAP reform of 2003 has various significant consequences for grassland use. In particular, the decreasing profitability of dairy farming will lead to low-intensity forms of grassland use, including mulching. In general, land rents will increase due to the effects of decoupling.CAP Reform, linear programming, land-market simulation, agent-based modelling, farmers attitude, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Spatial Modeling using Agents

Simulation is a decision support technique that is often used to represent systems of interest and to experiment with them. Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) is increasingly being used for modeling systems that comprise of autonomous and interacting system components. In such systems, the interactions among the underlying system components may be dependent on their spatial characteristics (e.g., dimension and location in three-dimensional space). The work presented in this paper describes an agent-based approach to spatial modeling through the use of a case study in container loading. The contribution of this paper is the demonstration of the feasibility of using MAS for spatial, proximity-based modeling, wherein not only agent behavior but also their physical dimension and their location in the three dimensional space are key considerations

A planning support system for assessing strategies of local urban planning agencies

Here we present our research project, which aims to develop a new kind of planning support system (PSS). The PSS aims to analyse the urban planning process. An important part of the construction of the PSS is the development of a multi-agent simulation model of the urban planning process; the model will be based on the comparison of the planning systems of France, England and the Netherlands

Errors and Artefacts in Agent-Based Modelling

The objectives of this paper are to define and classify different types of errors and artefacts that can appear in the process of developing an agent-based model, and to propose activities aimed at avoiding them during the model construction and testing phases. To do this in a structured way, we review the main concepts of the process of developing such a model – establishing a general framework that summarises the process of designing, implementing, and using agent-based models. Within this framework we identify the various stages where different types of errors and artefacts may appear. Finally we propose activities that could be used to detect (and hence eliminate) each type of error or artefact.Verification, Replication, Artefact, Error, Agent-Based Modelling, Modelling Roles

Using Qualitative Evidence to Enhance an Agent-Based Modelling System for Studying Land Use Change

This paper describes and evaluates a process of using qualitative field research data to extend the pre-existing FEARLUS agent-based modelling system through enriching its ontological capabilities, but without a deep level of involvement of the stakeholders in designing the model itself. Use of qualitative research in agent-based models typically involves protracted and expensive interaction with stakeholders; consequently gathering the valuable insights that qualitative methods could provide is not always feasible. At the same time, many researchers advocate building completely new models for each scenario to be studied, violating one of the supposed advantages of the object-oriented programming languages in which many such systems are built: that of code reuse. The process described here uses coded interviews to identify themes suggesting changes to an existing model, the assumptions behind which are then checked with respondents. We find this increases the confidence with which the extended model can be applied to the case study, with a relatively small commitment required on the part of respondents.Agent-Based Modelling, Land Use/Cover Change, Qualitative Research, Interdisciplinary Research