Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie

Patterns of mobility in a smart city

Transportation data in smart cities is becoming increasingly available. This data allows building meaningful, intelligent solutions for city residents and city management authorities, the so-called Intelligent Transportation Systems. Our research focused on Lisbon mobility data, provided by Lisbon municipality. The main research objective was to address mobility problems, interdependence, and cascading effects solutions for the city of Lisbon. We developed a data-driven approach based on historical data with a strong focus on visualization methods and dashboard creation. Also, we applied a method based on time series to do prediction based on the traffic congestion data provided. A CRISP-DM approach was applied, integrating different data sources, using Python. Hence, understand traffic patterns, and help the city authorities in the decision-making process, namely more preparedness, adaptability, responsiveness to events.Os dados de transporte, no âmbito das cidades inteligentes, estão cada vez mais disponíveis. Estes dados permitem a construção de soluções inteligentes com impacto significativo na vida dos residentes e nos mecanismos das autoridades de gestão da cidade, os chamados Sistemas de Transporte Inteligentes. A nossa investigação incidiu sobre os dados de mobilidade urbana da cidade de Lisboa, disponibilizados pelo município. O principal objetivo da pesquisa foi abordar os problemas de mobilidade, interdependência e soluções de efeitos em cascata para a cidade de Lisboa. Para alcançar este objetivo foi desenvolvida uma metodologia baseada nos dados históricos do transito no centro urbano da cidade e principais acessos, com uma forte componente de visualização. Foi também aplicado um método baseado em series temporais para fazer a previsão das ocorrências de transito na cidade de Lisboa. Foi aplicada uma abordagem CRISP-DM, integrando diferentes fontes de dados, utilizando Python. Esta tese tem como objetivo identificar padrões de mobilidade urbana com análise e visualização de dados, de forma a auxiliar as autoridades municipais no processo de tomada de decisão, nomeadamente estar mais preparada, adaptada e responsiva

Stigmergy-based modeling to discover urban activity patterns from positioning data

Positioning data offer a remarkable source of information to analyze crowds urban dynamics. However, discovering urban activity patterns from the emergent behavior of crowds involves complex system modeling. An alternative approach is to adopt computational techniques belonging to the emergent paradigm, which enables self-organization of data and allows adaptive analysis. Specifically, our approach is based on stigmergy. By using stigmergy each sample position is associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which progressively evaporates and aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity. Based on this principle, we exploit positioning data to identify high density areas (hotspots) and characterize their activity over time. This characterization allows the comparison of dynamics occurring in different days, providing a similarity measure exploitable by clustering techniques. Thus, we cluster days according to their activity behavior, discovering unexpected urban activity patterns. As a case study, we analyze taxi traces in New York City during 2015

Entropic Wasserstein Gradient Flows

This article details a novel numerical scheme to approximate gradient flows for optimal transport (i.e. Wasserstein) metrics. These flows have proved useful to tackle theoretically and numerically non-linear diffusion equations that model for instance porous media or crowd evolutions. These gradient flows define a suitable notion of weak solutions for these evolutions and they can be approximated in a stable way using discrete flows. These discrete flows are implicit Euler time stepping according to the Wasserstein metric. A bottleneck of these approaches is the high computational load induced by the resolution of each step. Indeed, this corresponds to the resolution of a convex optimization problem involving a Wasserstein distance to the previous iterate. Following several recent works on the approximation of Wasserstein distances, we consider a discrete flow induced by an entropic regularization of the transportation coupling. This entropic regularization allows one to trade the initial Wasserstein fidelity term for a Kulback-Leibler divergence, which is easier to deal with numerically. We show how KL proximal schemes, and in particular Dykstra's algorithm, can be used to compute each step of the regularized flow. The resulting algorithm is both fast, parallelizable and versatile, because it only requires multiplications by a Gibbs kernel. On Euclidean domains discretized on an uniform grid, this corresponds to a linear filtering (for instance a Gaussian filtering when $c$ is the squared Euclidean distance) which can be computed in nearly linear time. On more general domains, such as (possibly non-convex) shapes or on manifolds discretized by a triangular mesh, following a recently proposed numerical scheme for optimal transport, this Gibbs kernel multiplication is approximated by a short-time heat diffusion

Characterizing corridor-level travel time distributions based on stochastic flows and segment capacities

abstract: Trip travel time reliability is an important measure of transportation system performance and a key factor affecting travelers’ choices. This paper explores a method for estimating travel time distributions for corridors that contain multiple bottlenecks. A set of analytical equations are used to calculate the number of queued vehicles ahead of a probe vehicle and further capture many important factors affecting travel times: the prevailing congestion level, queue discharge rates at the bottlenecks, and flow rates associated with merges and diverges. Based on multiple random scenarios and a vector of arrival times, the lane-by-lane delay at each bottleneck along the corridor is recursively estimated to produce a route-level travel time distribution. The model incorporates stochastic variations of bottleneck capacity and demand and explains the travel time correlations between sequential links. Its data needs are the entering and exiting flow rates and a sense of the lane-by-lane distribution of traffic at each bottleneck. A detailed vehicle trajectory data-set from the Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) project has been used to verify that the estimated distributions are valid, and the sources of estimation error are examined.The final version of this article, as published in Cogent Engineering, can be viewed online at: https://www.cogentoa.com/article/10.1080/23311916.2014.99067

Probabilistic Modelling for Unsupervised Analysis of Human Behaviour in Smart Cities

The growth of urban areas in recent years has motivated a large amount of new sensor applications in smart cities. At the centre of many new applications stands the goal of gaining insights into human activity. Scalable monitoring of urban environments can facilitate better informed city planning, efficient security, regular transport and commerce. A large part of monitoring capabilities have already been deployed; however, most rely on expensive motion imagery and privacy invading video cameras. It is possible to use a low-cost sensor alternative, which enables deep understanding of population behaviour such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) data. However, the automated analysis of such low dimensional sensor data, requires new flexible and structured techniques that can describe the generative distribution and time dynamics of the observation data, while accounting for external contextual influences such as time of day or the difference between weekend/weekday trends. In this paper, we propose a novel time series analysis technique that allows for multiple different transition matrices depending on the data’s contextual realisations all following shared adaptive observational models that govern the global distribution of the data given a latent sequence. The proposed approach, which we name Adaptive Input Hidden Markov model (AI-HMM) is tested on two datasets from different sensor types: GPS trajectories of taxis and derived vehicle counts in populated areas. We demonstrate that our model can group different categories of behavioural trends and identify time specific anomalies

Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of Fourier Trajectory Analysis for System Discrimination

With few exceptions, simulation output analysis has focused on static characterizations, to determine a property of the steady-state distribution of a performance metric such as a mean, a quantile, or the distribution itself. Analyses often seek to overcome difficulties induced by autocorrelation of the output stream. But sample paths generated by stochastic simulation exhibit dynamic behavior that is characteristic of system structure and associated distributions. In this technical report, we investigate these dynamic characteristics, as captured by the Fourier transform of a dynamic simulation trajectory. We find that Fourier coefficient magnitudes can have greater discriminatory power than the usual test statistics, and with simpler analysis resulting from the statistical independence of coefficient estimates at different frequencies. Theoretical and Empirical results are provided

CT-Mapper: Mapping Sparse Multimodal Cellular Trajectories using a Multilayer Transportation Network

Mobile phone data have recently become an attractive source of information about mobility behavior. Since cell phone data can be captured in a passive way for a large user population, they can be harnessed to collect well-sampled mobility information. In this paper, we propose CT-Mapper, an unsupervised algorithm that enables the mapping of mobile phone traces over a multimodal transport network. One of the main strengths of CT-Mapper is its capability to map noisy sparse cellular multimodal trajectories over a multilayer transportation network where the layers have different physical properties and not only to map trajectories associated with a single layer. Such a network is modeled by a large multilayer graph in which the nodes correspond to metro/train stations or road intersections and edges correspond to connections between them. The mapping problem is modeled by an unsupervised HMM where the observations correspond to sparse user mobile trajectories and the hidden states to the multilayer graph nodes. The HMM is unsupervised as the transition and emission probabilities are inferred using respectively the physical transportation properties and the information on the spatial coverage of antenna base stations. To evaluate CT-Mapper we collected cellular traces with their corresponding GPS trajectories for a group of volunteer users in Paris and vicinity (France). We show that CT-Mapper is able to accurately retrieve the real cell phone user paths despite the sparsity of the observed trace trajectories. Furthermore our transition probability model is up to 20% more accurate than other naive models.Comment: Under revision in Computer Communication Journa

Evaluation of traffic speed control devices and its applications

Traffic speed control devices have an important role in transportation systems. Static devices, such as speed limit signs, can advocate safe and efficient traffic movements by displaying appropriate speed limits. Changeable message signs have many applications in adjusting the dynamic nature of a transportation system. These applications include but are not limited to variable speed limits based on ambient traffic conditions, work zone management, and warnings about severe weather conditions. This dissertation evaluated the performance of multiple traffic speed control devices, including static speed limit signs and dynamic changeable message signs. By identifying existing problems, such as data smoothing, traffic characteristics clustering, and event classification, the author proposed some practical engineering solutions for better performance. One of the highlighted applications is a text alert system that actively monitors 50 Iowa work zones, which are equipped with more than 350 roadway sensors, and sends multimedia alert texts to district traffic engineers. The application of a variable advisory speed limit system that reports severe winter weather conditions was also implemented/validated and currently runs in “ghost” mode (without displaying any visible messages to the public) until it is approved. After conducting a series of analyses in the transportation macroscopic world (data collected by roadway traffic sensors), the current dissertation research expanded into the microscopic driver speed behavior analysis (data collected by instrumented vehicle sensors). A naturalistic driving study focusing on older drivers collected a large amount of detailed individual driving data from multiple sources with high resolutions, including timestamped speed, acceleration, deceleration, and geo locations. This abundant dataset enabled the author to examine an individual’s driving behavior with respect to different speed limits and other factors

Quadratic Mean Field Games

Mean field games were introduced independently by J-M. Lasry and P-L. Lions, and by M. Huang, R.P. Malham\'e and P. E. Caines, in order to bring a new approach to optimization problems with a large number of interacting agents. The description of such models split in two parts, one describing the evolution of the density of players in some parameter space, the other the value of a cost functional each player tries to minimize for himself, anticipating on the rational behavior of the others. Quadratic Mean Field Games form a particular class among these systems, in which the dynamics of each player is governed by a controlled Langevin equation with an associated cost functional quadratic in the control parameter. In such cases, there exists a deep relationship with the non-linear Schr\"odinger equation in imaginary time, connexion which lead to effective approximation schemes as well as a better understanding of the behavior of Mean Field Games. The aim of this paper is to serve as an introduction to Quadratic Mean Field Games and their connexion with the non-linear Schr\"odinger equation, providing to physicists a good entry point into this new and exciting field.Comment: 62 pages, 4 figure