Graph deep learning model for network-based predictive hotspot mapping of sparse spatio-temporal events

The predictive hotspot mapping of sparse spatio-temporal events (e.g., crime and traffic accidents) aims to forecast areas or locations with higher average risk of event occurrence, which is important to offer insight for preventative strategies. Although a network-based structure can better capture the micro-level variation of spatio-temporal events, existing deep learning methods of sparse events forecasting are either based on area or grid units due to the data sparsity in both space and time, and the complex network topology. To overcome these challenges, this paper develops the first deep learning (DL) model for network-based predictive mapping of sparse spatio-temporal events. Leveraging a graph-based representation of the network-structured data, a gated localised diffusion network (GLDNet) is introduced, which integrating a gated network to model the temporal propagation and a novel localised diffusion network to model the spatial propagation confined by the network topology. To deal with the sparsity issue, we reformulate the research problem as an imbalance regression task and employ a weighted loss function to train the DL model. The framework is validated on a crime forecasting case of South Chicago, USA, which outperforms the state-of-the-art benchmark by 12% and 25% in terms of the mean hit rate at 10% and 20% coverage level, respectively

CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting

Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called "community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition, our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201

Detecting and Monitoring Hate Speech in Twitter

Social Media are sensors in the real world that can be used to measure the pulse of societies. However, the massive and unfiltered feed of messages posted in social media is a phenomenon that nowadays raises social alarms, especially when these messages contain hate speech targeted to a specific individual or group. In this context, governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are concerned about the possible negative impact that these messages can have on individuals or on the society. In this paper, we present HaterNet, an intelligent system currently being used by the Spanish National Office Against Hate Crimes of the Spanish State Secretariat for Security that identifies and monitors the evolution of hate speech in Twitter. The contributions of this research are many-fold: (1) It introduces the first intelligent system that monitors and visualizes, using social network analysis techniques, hate speech in Social Media. (2) It introduces a novel public dataset on hate speech in Spanish consisting of 6000 expert-labeled tweets. (3) It compares several classification approaches based on different document representation strategies and text classification models. (4) The best approach consists of a combination of a LTSM+MLP neural network that takes as input the tweet’s word, emoji, and expression tokens’ embeddings enriched by the tf-idf, and obtains an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.828 on our dataset, outperforming previous methods presented in the literatureThe work by Quijano-Sanchez was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation grant FJCI-2016-28855. The research of Liberatore was supported by the Government of Spain, grant MTM2015-65803-R, and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 691161 (GEOSAFE). All the financial support is gratefully acknowledge