Approximate Reasoning in Hydrogeological Modeling

The accurate determination of hydraulic conductivity is an important element of successful groundwater flow and transport modeling. However, the exhaustive measurement of this hydrogeological parameter is quite costly and, as a result, unrealistic. Alternatively, relationships between hydraulic conductivity and other hydrogeological variables less costly to measure have been used to estimate this crucial variable whenever needed. Until this point, however, the majority of these relationships have been assumed to be crisp and precise, contrary to what intuition dictates. The research presented herein addresses the imprecision inherent in hydraulic conductivity estimation, framing this process in a fuzzy logic framework. Because traditional hydrogeological practices are not suited to handle fuzzy data, various approaches to incorporating fuzzy data at different steps in the groundwater modeling process have been previously developed. Such approaches have been both redundant and contrary at times, including multiple approaches proposed for both fuzzy kriging and groundwater modeling. This research proposes a consistent rubric for the handling of fuzzy data throughout the entire groundwater modeling process. This entails the estimation of fuzzy data from alternative hydrogeological parameters, the sampling of realizations from fuzzy hydraulic conductivity data, including, most importantly, the appropriate aggregation of expert-provided fuzzy hydraulic conductivity estimates with traditionally-derived hydraulic conductivity measurements, and utilization of this information in the numerical simulation of groundwater flow and transport

Intelligent Real-Time Decision Support Systems for Road Traffic Management. Multi-agent based Fuzzy Neural Networks with a GA learning approach in managing control actions of road traffic centres.

The selection of the most appropriate traffic control actions to solve non-recurrent traffic congestion is a complex task which requires significant expert knowledge and experience. In this thesis we develop and investigate the application of an intelligent traffic control decision support system for road traffic management to assist the human operator to identify the most suitable control actions in order to deal with non-recurrent and non-predictable traffic congestion in a real-time situation. Our intelligent system employs a Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNN) Tool that combines the capabilities of fuzzy reasoning in measuring imprecise and dynamic factors and the capabilities of neural networks in terms of learning processes. In this work we present an effective learning approach with regard to the FNN-Tool, which consists of three stages: initializing the membership functions of both input and output variables by determining their centres and widths using self-organizing algorithms; employing an evolutionary Genetic Algorithm (GA) based learning method to identify the fuzzy rules; tune the derived structure and parameters using the back-propagation learning algorithm. We evaluate experimentally the performance and the prediction capability of this three-stage learning approach using well-known benchmark examples. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of the learning approach to identify all relevant fuzzy rules from the training data. A comparative analysis shows that the proposed learning approach has a higher degree of predictive capability than existing models. We also address the scalability issue of our intelligent traffic control decision support system by using a multi-agent based approach. The large network is divided into sub-networks, each of which has its own associated agent. Finally, our intelligent traffic control decision support system is applied to a number of road traffic case studies using the traffic network in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia. The results obtained are promising and show that our intelligent traffic control decision support system can provide an effective support for real-time traffic control

Focusing On Interpretability And Accuracy Of A Genetic Fuzzy System

This research work presents a new approach for fuzzy system building taking into account the accuracy and interpretability of the system. One difficulty in the handling of high-dimensional problems by fuzzy rule-based systems is the exponential increase in the number of rules and in the number of conditions in the antecedent part of the rule. Thus, as first step of the proposed approach we apply a feature selection process in order to exclude irrelevant variables. Besides that, dimensionality reduction generally promotes the accuracy and comprehensibility of the system. After that, a genetic algorithm is used for deriving short and comprehensible fuzzy rules. Finally another genetic algorithm is used for optimizing the rule base obtained in the last step, excluding unnecessary and redundant rules. The fitness function of the algorithms consider both accuracy and interpretability of the fuzzy model and the use of "don't care" condition allows to generate more comprehensible with high generalization capacity. The application domain is multidimensional fuzzy pattern classification. By computational simulation in some well-know datasets, we can see that the proposed approach is able to generate compact fuzzy rule bases with high classification ability. 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