TIDAL STREAM DEVICES: RELIABILITY PREDICTION MODELS DURING THEIR CONCEPTUAL & DEVELOPMENT PHASES

Tidal Stream Devices (TSDs) are relatively new renewable energy converters. To date only a few prototypes, primarily horizontal-axis turbine designs, are operational; therefore, little reliability data has accumulated. Pressure to develop reliable sources of renewable electric power is encouraging investors to consider the technology for development. There are a variety of engineering solutions under consideration, including floating tethered, submerged tethered, ducted sea-bed bottom-mounted and sea-bed pile-mounted turbines, but in the absence of in-service reliability data it is difficult to critically evaluate comparative technologies. Developing reliability models for TSDs could reduce long-term risks and costs for investors and developers, encouraging more feasible and economically viable options. This research develops robust reliability models for comparison, defining TSD reliability block diagrams (RBD) in a rigorous way, using surrogate reliability data from similarly-rated wind turbines (WTs) and other relevant marine and electrical industries. The purpose of the research is not to derive individual TSD failure rates but to provide a means of comparison of the relative reliabilities of various devices. Analysis of TSD sub-assemblies from the major types of TSDs used today is performed to identify criticality, to improve controllability and maintainability. The models show that TSDs can be expected to have lower reliability than WTs of comparable size and that failure rates increase with complexity. The models also demonstrate that controls and drive train sub-assemblies, such as the gearbox, generator and converter, are critical to device reliability. The proposed developed models provide clear identification of required changes to the proposed TSD system designs, to raise availability, including duplication of critical systems, use of components developed for harsh environments and migration of equipment onshore, wherever practicable

Reliability analysis and repair activity for the components of 350 kw inverters in a large scale grid-connected photovoltaic system

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) generators is strongly affected by the performance of Direct Current/Alternating Current (DC/AC) converters, being the major source of PV under-performance. However, generally, their reliability is not investigated at component level: thus, the present work presents a reliability analysis and the repair activity for the components of full bridge DC/AC converters. In the first part of the paper, a reliability analysis using failure rates from literature is carried out for 132 inverters (AC rated power of 350 kW each) with global AC power of 46 MW in a large scale grid-connected PV plant. Then, in the second part of the work, results from literature are compared with data obtained by analyzing industrial maintenance reports in the years 2015–2017. In conclusion, the yearly energy losses involved in the downtime are quantified, as well as their availability

A study on the analysis of two-unit redundant repairable complex systems

Two well-known methods of improving the reliability of a system are (i) provision of redundant units, and (ii) repair maintenance. In a redundant system more units made available for performing the system function when fewer are required actually. There are two major types of redundancy - parallel and standby. In this dissertation we are concerned with both these types. Some of the typical assumptions made in the analysis of redundant systems are (i) the repair facility can take up a failed unit for repair at any time, if no other unit is undergoing repair (ii) the system under consideration is needed all the time However, we frequently come accross systems where one or more assumptions have to be relaxed. This is the motivation for the detailed study of the models presented in this dissertation. In this dissertation we present models of redundant systems relaxing one or more of these assumptions simultaneously. More specifically it is a study of stochastic models of redundant systems with 'vacation period' for the repair facility (both standby and parallel systems), and intermittently used systems. The dissertation contains five chapters. Chapter 1 is introductory in nature and contains a brief description of the mathematical techniques used in the analysis of redundant systems. In Chapter 2 assumption (i) is relaxed while studying a model of cold standby redundant system with 'vacation period' for the repair facility. In this model the repair facility is not available for a random time immediately after each repair completion. Integral equations for the reliability and availability functions of the system are derived under suitable assumptions. In Chapter 3, once again assumption (i) is relaxed while studying a model of parallel redundant systems with the same 'vacation period' for the repair facility, explained in the above paragraph. In Chapter 4, the detailed review of intermittently used systems have been studied. In Chapter 5, assumption (ii) is relaxed. This chapter is devoted to the study of an intermittently used 2-unit cold standby system with a single repair facility. This study was carried out using the 'correlated alternating renewal process' and the joint forward recurrence times. All the above models have been studied, when some of the underlying distributions have a non-Markovian nature. They have been analysed using a regeneration point technique.Mathematical SciencesM. Sc. (Statistics

Reliability Evaluation of Common-Cause Failures and Other Interdependencies in Large Reconfigurable Networks

This work covers the impact of Interdependencies and CCFs in large repairable networks with possibility of "re-configuration" after a fault and the consequent disconnection of the faulted equipment. Typical networks with these characteristics are the Utilities, e.g. Power Transmission and Distribution Systems, Telecommunication Systems, Gas and Water Utilities, Wi Fi networks. The main issues of the research are: (a) Identification of the specific interdependencies and CCFs in large repairable networks, and (b)Evaluation of their impact on the reliability parameters (load nodes availability, etc.). The research has identified (1) the system and equipment failure modes that are relevant to interdependencies and CCF, and their subsequent effects, and (2) The hidden interdependencies and CCFs relevant to control, supervision and protection systems, and to the automatic change-over systems, that have no impact in normal operation, but that can cause relevant out-of-service when the above automatic systems are called to operate under and after fault conditions. Additionally methods were introduced to include interdependencies and CCFs in the reliability and availability models. The results of the research include a new generalized approach to model the repairable networks for reliability analysis, including Interdependencies/CCFs as a main contributor. The method covers Generalized models for Nodes, Branches and Load nodes; Interdependencies and CCFs on Networks / Components; System Interdependencies/CCFs; Functional Interdependencies/CCFs; Simultaneous and non-simultaneous Interdependencies/CCFs. As an example detailed Interdependency/CCFs analysis and generalized model of an important network structure (a "RING" with load nodes) has been analyzed in detail

A simulation model for dynamic system availability analysis

"May, 1989.""This report is based on the master's thesis [M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1989] of the first author."--Page iiiIncludes bibliographical references (pages 85-86

Some stochastic problems in reliability and inventory

An attempt is made in this thesis to study some stochastic models of both reliability and inventory systems with reference to the following aspects: (i) the confidence limits with the introduction of common-cause failures. (ii) the Erlangian repair time distributions. (iii) the product interactions and demand interactions. (iv) the products are perishable. This thesis contains six chapters. Chaper 1 is introductory in nature and gives a review of the literature and the techniques used in the analysis of reliability systems. Chapter 2 is a study of component common-cause failure systems. Such failures may greatly reduce the reliability indices. Two models of such systems (series and parallel) have been studied in this chapter. The expressions such as, reliability, availability and expected number of repairs have been obtained. The confidence limits for the steady state availability of these two systems have also been obtained. A numerical example illustrates the results. A 100 (1 - a) % confidence limit for the steady state availability of a two unit hot and warm standby system has been studied, when the failure of an online unit is constant and the repair time of a failed unit is Erlangian. The general introduction of various inventory systems and the techniques used in the analysis of such systems have been explained in chapter 4. Chapter 5 provides two models of two component continuous review inventory systems. Here we assume that demand occurs according to a poisson process and that a demand can be satisfied only if both the components are available in inventory. Back-orders are not permitted. The two components are bought from outside suppliers and are replenished according to (s, S) policy. In model 1 we assume that the lead-time of the components follow an exponential distribution. By identifying the inventory level as a Markov process, a system of difference-differential equations at any time and the steady-state for the state of inventory level are obtained. Tn model 2 we assume that the lead-time distribution of one product is arbitrary and the other is exponential. Identifying the underlying process as a semi-regenerative process we find the stationary distribution of the inventory level. For both these models, we find out the performance measures such as the mean stationary rate of the number of lost demands, the demands satisfied and the reorders made. Numerical examples for the two models are also considered. Chaper 6 is devoted to the study of a two perishable product inventory model in which the products are substitutable. The perishable rates of product 1 and product 2 are two different constants. Demand for product 1 and product 2 follow two independent Poisson processes. For replenishment of product 1 (s, S) ordering policy is followed and the associated lead-time is arbitrary. Replenishment of product 2 is instantaneous. A demand for product 1 which occurs during its stock-out period can be substituted by product 2 with some probability. Expressions are derived for the stationary distribution of the inventor}' level by identifying the underlying stochastic process as a semi-regenerative process. An expression for the expected profit rate is obtained. A numerical illustration is provided and an optimal reordering level maximising the profit rate is also studied. To sum up, this thesis is an effort to improve the state the of art of (i) complex reliability systems and their estimation study (ii) muitiproduct inventory systems. The salient features of the thesis are: (i) Analysis of a two-component reliability system with common-cause failures. (ii) Estimation study of a complex system in which the repair time for both hot standby and warm standby systems are assumed to be Eriangian. (iii) A multi-product continuous review inventory system with product interaction, with a (s, S) policy. (iv) Introduction of the concept of substitutability for products. (v) Derivation of expressions for various statistical measures. (vi) Effective use of the regeneration point technique in deriving various measures for both reliability and inventory systems. (vii) Illustration of the various results by extensive numerical work. (vii) Consideration of relevant optimization problems.Mathematical SciencesPhD (Statistics

FRAMEWORK FOR RELIABILITY, MAINTAINABILITY AND AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS OF GAS PROCESSING SYSTEM DURING OPERATION PHASE

In facing many operation challenges such as increased expectation in bottom line performances and escalating overhead costs, petrochemical plants nowadays need to continually strive for higher reliability and availability by means of effective improvement tools. Reliability, maintainability and availability (RAM) analysis has been recognised as one of the strategic tools to improve plant's reliability at operation phase. Nevertheless, the application of RAM among industrial practitioners is still limited generally due to the impracticality and complexity of existing approaches. Hence, it is important to enhance the approaches so that they can be practically applied by companies to assist them in achieving their operational goals. The objectives of this research are to develop frameworks for applying reliability, maintainability and availability analysis of gas processing system at operation phase to improve system operational and maintenance performances. In addition, the study focuses on ways to apply existing statistical approach and incorporate inputs from field experts for prediction of reliability related measures. Furthermore, it explores and highlights major issues involved in implementing RAM analysis in oil and gas industry and offers viable solutions. In this study, systematic analysis on each RAM components are proposed and their roles as strategic improvement and decision making tools are discussed and demonstrated using case studies of two plant systems. In reliability and maintainability (R&M) analysis, two main steps; exploratory and inferential are proposed. Tools such as Pareto, trend plot and hazard functions; Kaplan Meier (KM) and proportional hazard model (PHM), are used in exploratory phase to identify critical elements to system's R&M performances. In inferential analysis, a systematic methodology is presented to assess R&M related measures

RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCE EVALUATION OF A STAND-ALONE MOBILE MICROGRID-ANALYSIS AND EXPERIMENTAL MEASUREMENTS

As the Department of Defense (DOD) deploys renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) to reduce fossil fuel consumption, microgrids are being evaluated as one way to generate and deliver reliable electric power to stationary and mobile military units. Commercial off the Shelf (COTS) microgrid components are a viable cost-effective option to setup stand-alone microgrid systems to support mobile military units and help drive the transition to a more sustainable yet energy-resilient military. Reliability and resilience are key parameters in determining the effectiveness of microgrids in supporting military missions. Although in the past few years many researchers have presented reliability and resilience models of various complexity, experimental measurements and model validation are not available in the literature for mobile COTS microgrids. The goal of this thesis research is to experimentally assess the reliability and resilience of stand-alone, mobile microgrids that can be carried by one or two individuals and can be easily assembled in the field in support of operations in locations where utility power is not available. Utilizing COTS DERs including batteries, PV arrays and power converters, three different standalone microgrid architectures were designed, analyzed, and tested in the laboratory. Reliability block diagrams, and system fault trees were created per MIL-HDBK-338B, to compare the reliability of the three microgrid configurations.Major, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Reliability monitoring techniques applied to a hot strip steel mill

Reliability engineering techniques have been used in the manufacturing environment for many years. However the reliability analysis of repairable systems is not so widely practised in the steel manufacturing environment. Many different analysis methods have been proposed for the modelling of repairable systems, most of these have had limited application in the manufacturing environment. The current reliability analysis techniques are predominantly used by engineers to construct a “snapshot” in time of a manufacturing system’s reliability status. There are no readily identifiable applications of reliability modelling techniques being applied to repairable systems over a long time period within the manufacturing environment The aim of this work is to construct a method which can analyse and monitor the reliability status of multiple repairable systems within the steel plant over an extended operating period. The developed analysis method is predominantly automated and is facilitated by applying standard reliability analysis techniques to all of the repairable systems failure data sets under review. This Thesis illuminates the methodology used to fulfil the remit of this research by the following sequential steps: Developing a new methodology for the application of reliability analysis techniques to repairable systems within a steel manufacturing facility Utilised an innovative step of combining three reliability analysis methods as complimentary activities Constructed an automated reliability analysis model which fulfils the project remit. In addition the model is capable of the long term monitoring of repairable system reliability The new reliability analysis method has been delivered to Tata Steel and is installed in the Port Talbot Technology Group with a direct link to the Hot Strip Mill (HSM) monitoring database. This reliability analysis method has been tested with four years operational data from the Hot Strip Mill manufacturing area and the analysis has shown that changes and trends in all systems reliability status can be easily identified.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo