A decision model for natural oil buying policy under uncertainty

A manufacturer, in a fast moving consumer goods industry, buys Natural oils from a number of oil suppliers world-wide. The prices of these oils are the major raw material cost in producing the consumer goods, which are also sold world-wide. The volatility in the international prices of the Natural oils has signi¯cant impact on the planning and budgets decisions. Since the oils are bought and the ¯nished products are sold in markets throughout the world, the manufacturer is exposed to a variety of market uncertainties and the resulting risks. These uncertainties are the raw material prices, the demand and the therefore the selling prices for the finished goods- all of which influence the profitability of the manufacturing firm. The risks can be minimised by entering into futures contract of appropriate duration, that is, by following a schedule of "forward"' purchase of oil (with specific series of future delivery dates) with the oil suppliers. We formulate this problem as a two-stage Stochastic Program (SP) using the futures and the spot prices for the Natural oil. This SP model gives robust decisions that hedge against the uncertainties in the Natural oil prices and the demand for the finished products. The uncertainty in the oil prices and the demand are modelled through a scenario generator. We have constructed a decision support system (DSS) that integrates the SP model, the scenario generator and the solution algorithm. This DSS also provides the decision maker a profile of the risk and return exposures for different policies

Transportation for an Aging Population: Promoting Mobility and Equity for Low-Income Seniors

This study explores the travel patterns, needs, and mobility problems faced by diverse low-income, inner-city older adults in Los Angeles in order to identify solutions to their mobility challenges. The study draws information from: (1) a systematic literature review of the travel patterns of older adults; (2) a review of municipal policies and services geared toward older adult mobility in six cities; (3) a quantitative analysis of the mobility patterns of older adults in California using the California Household Travel Survey; and (4) empirical work with 81 older adults residing in and around Los Angeles’ inner-city Westlake neighborhood, who participated in focus groups, interviews, and walkabouts around their neighborhood

Preliminary assessment of systems for deriving liquid and gaseous fuels from waste or grown organics

The overall feasibility of the chemical conversion of waste or grown organic matter to fuel is examined from the technical, economic, and social viewpoints. The energy contribution from a system that uses waste and grown organic feedstocks is estimated as 4 to 12 percent of our current energy consumption. Estimates of today's market prices for these fuels are included. Economic and social issues are as important as technology in determining the feasibility of such a proposal. An orderly program of development and demonstration is recommended to provide reliable data for an assessment of the viability of the proposal

Fruit and Vegetable Production

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Fuelwood stumpage : financing renewable energy for the world's other half

In many developing countries, households rely heavily on woodfuels (firewood and charcoal) as their main source of energy for cooking and heating. The internal trade in woodfuels is often sizable. African governments now collect stumpage fees of $30 million a year for fuelwood and charcoalwood, or only about 2 % of the selling price of the finished products. By charging an adequate fee for these wood resources, the authors argue woodfuels production and consumption can be made more efficient. In addition, governments would be better able to finance the investments in their forest sector that are needed to maintain a regular fuelwood supply and to prevent long term environmental damage. The authors outline the methods energy planners can use to estimate fuelwood values and discuss several problems that arise in assessing and collecting fuelwood stumpage fees.Silviculture,Environmental Economics&Policies,Forestry,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access