48,307 research outputs found
Real-time Bayesian State Estimation of Uncertain Dynamical Systems
The focus of this report is real-time Bayesian state estimation using nonlinear models. A recently developed method, the particle filter, is studied that is based on Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the well-known extended Kalman filter, it is applicable to highly nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian uncertainties. Recently developed techniques that improve the convergence of the particle filter simulations are also introduced and discussed. Comparisons between the particle filter and the extended Kalman filter are made using several numerical examples of nonlinear systems. The results indicate that the particle filter provides consistent state and parameter estimates for highly nonlinear systems, while the extended Kalman filter does not.
The particle filter is applied to a real-data case study: a 7-story hotel whose structural system consists of non-ductile reinforced-concrete moment frames, one of which was severely damaged during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Two identification models are proposed: a timevarying linear model and a simplified time-varying nonlinear degradation model. The latter is derived from a nonlinear finite-element model of the building previously developed at Caltech. For the former model, the resulting performance is poor since the parameters need to vary significantly with time in order to capture the structural degradation of the building during the earthquake. The latter model performs better because it is able to characterize this degradation to a certain extent even with its parameters fixed. Once again, the particle filter provides consistent state and parameter estimates, in contrast to the extended Kalman filter. It is concluded that for a state estimation procedure to be successful, at least two factors are essential: an appropriate estimation algorithm and a suitable identification model. Finally, recorded motions from the 1994 Northridge earthquake are used to illustrate how to do real-time performance evaluation by computing estimates of the repair costs and probability of component damage for the hotel
Particle approximations of the score and observed information matrix for parameter estimation in state space models with linear computational cost
Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate
both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models.
These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the
number of particles, or produce estimates whose variance increases
quadratically with the amount of data. This paper introduces an alternative
approach for estimating these terms at a computational cost that is linear in
the number of particles. The method is derived using a combination of kernel
density estimation, to avoid the particle degeneracy that causes the
quadratically increasing variance, and Rao-Blackwellisation. Crucially, we show
the method is robust to the choice of bandwidth within the kernel density
estimation, as it has good asymptotic properties regardless of this choice. Our
estimates of the score and observed information matrix can be used within both
online and batch procedures for estimating parameters for state space models.
Empirical results show improved parameter estimates compared to existing
methods at a significantly reduced computational cost. Supplementary materials
including code are available.Comment: Accepted to Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistic
An Introduction to Twisted Particle Filters and Parameter Estimation in Non-linear State-space Models
Twisted particle filters are a class of sequential Monte Carlo methods
recently introduced by Whiteley and Lee to improve the efficiency of marginal
likelihood estimation in state-space models. The purpose of this article is to
extend the twisted particle filtering methodology, establish accessible
theoretical results which convey its rationale, and provide a demonstration of
its practical performance within particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for
estimating static model parameters. We derive twisted particle filters that
incorporate systematic or multinomial resampling and information from
historical particle states, and a transparent proof which identifies the
optimal algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. We demonstrate how to
approximate the optimal algorithm for nonlinear state-space models with
Gaussian noise and we apply such approximations to two examples: a range and
bearing tracking problem and an indoor positioning problem with Bluetooth
signal strength measurements. We demonstrate improvements over standard
algorithms in terms of variance of marginal likelihood estimates and Markov
chain autocorrelation for given CPU time, and improved tracking performance
using estimated parameters.Comment: This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication.
Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no
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The Extended Parameter Filter
The parameters of temporal models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, may be
modelled in a Bayesian context as static or atemporal variables that influence
transition probabilities at every time step. Particle filters fail for models
that include such variables, while methods that use Gibbs sampling of parameter
variables may incur a per-sample cost that grows linearly with the length of
the observation sequence. Storvik devised a method for incremental computation
of exact sufficient statistics that, for some cases, reduces the per-sample
cost to a constant. In this paper, we demonstrate a connection between
Storvik's filter and a Kalman filter in parameter space and establish more
general conditions under which Storvik's filter works. Drawing on an analogy to
the extended Kalman filter, we develop and analyze, both theoretically and
experimentally, a Taylor approximation to the parameter posterior that allows
Storvik's method to be applied to a broader class of models. Our experiments on
both synthetic examples and real applications show improvement over existing
methods
A non-Gaussian continuous state space model for asset degradation
The degradation model plays an essential role in asset life prediction and condition based maintenance. Various degradation models have been proposed. Within these models, the state space model has the ability to combine degradation data and failure event data. The state space model is also an effective approach to deal with the multiple observations and missing data issues. Using the state space degradation model, the deterioration process of assets is presented by a system state process which can be revealed by a sequence of observations. Current research largely assumes that the underlying system development process is discrete in time or states. Although some models have been developed to consider continuous time and space, these state space models are based on the Wiener process with the Gaussian assumption. This paper proposes a Gamma-based state space degradation model in order to remove the Gaussian assumption. Both condition monitoring observations and failure events are considered in the model so as to improve the accuracy of asset life prediction. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the application procedure of the proposed model
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