Do business process reengineering projects payoff? Evidence from the United States

This paper examines whether implementation of business process reengineering (BPR) projects improve firm performance by analyzing a comprehensive data set on large firms in the United States. The performance measures utilized in the paper are labor productivity, return on assets, and return on equity. We show that firm performance increases after the BPR projects are finalized, while it remains unaffected during execution. We also find that functionally focused BPR projects on average contribute more to performance than those with a broader cross-functional scope. This may be an indication that potential failure risk of BPR projects may increase beyond a certain level of scope

Micro-data in Macroeconomics

This dissertation contains three essays on Macroeconomics. Detailed micro-level data is used in all three essays. The first chapter studies wealth inequality problems. More specif- ically, it focuses on capital return inequality among university endowments. It combines university-level data on endowment size, capital returns, and portfolio allocations into a unified dataset. Using panel data regression, I show a strong impact of size on investment return. Everything else the same, the biggest endowment has a capital return 8 percent higher than the smallest endowment. However, after adjusting for risk using Sharpe ratios, the strong positive correlation turns negligible or even negative. This result suggests that the higher return of bigger endowments can be attributed to risk compensation rather than to an informational premium. The second and the third chapters employ firm-level data to study macroeconomic pro- ductivity. The second chapter documents the sectoral growth paths of measured total factor productivity (TFP) in southern Europe during the boom that proceeded the great contraction (1996 to 2007). Using both aggregate and firm-level panel data, I show that TFP in sectors that displayed fast expansion, such as construction, dropped significantly, while in non- expanding sectors, such as manufacturing, it stayed stable. I evaluate the relevance of two alternative explanations of this phenomenon: capital misallocation (the increase in capital was directed to less productive firms) and labor quality mismeasurement (lower quality of incoming labor was not fully captured in the TFP calculation). I find that the misalloca- tion channel is almost negligible. Moreover, worker-firm matched data shows that labor quality did deteriorate in the expanding sectors but not in the others, giving credence to the labor-quality mismeasurement hypothesis. A model featuring both the misallocation and the mismeasurement channels and calibrated to match the micro-level productivity distri- bution and labor quality distribution predicts that the drop in true TFP was small if labor quality is measured properly. The third chapter documents the total factor productivity growth path in China from 1998 to 2015 using both the aggregate and the firm-level data. We find that measured TFP growth is positive from 1998 to 2011, before turning flat and even negative. A care- ful comparison between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms reveals that the slowing down of TFP growth of SOEs is the major contributor to the TFP growth reversal of the whole manufacturing sector. The reversal is not due to changes in the composition of production in different sub-sectors, but mostly due to changes within existing firms

Inflation, Investment Composition and Total Factor Productivity

This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial market friction to rationalize the empirically observed negative relationship between inflation and total factor productivity (TFP). Specifically, an empirical analysis of US macroeconomic time series establishes that there is a negative causal effect of inflation on aggregate productivity. Rather than taking the productivity process as exogenous, the model is therefore set up to feature an endogenous component of TFP. This is achieved by allowing physical investment to be channelled into two distinct technologies: a safe, but return-dominated technology and a superior technology which is subject to idiosyncratic liquidity risk. An agency problem prevents complete insurance against liquidity risk, and the scope for insurance is endogenously determined via the relevant liquidity premium. Since the liquidity premium is positively related to the rate of inflation, the model demonstrates how nominal fluctuations have an influence not only on the overall amount, but also on the qualitative composition of aggregate investment and hence on TFP. The quantitative relevance of the underlying transmission mechanism which links nominal fluctuations to TFP via corporate liquidity holdings and the composition of aggregate investment is corroborated by means of the quantitative analysis of the calibrated model economy as well as a detailed analysis of industry-level and firm-level panel data. Notably, the empirical findings are consistent with both the properties of the agency problem postulated in the theoretical model and its implications for corporate liquidity holdings and physical investment portfolios.

Systematic Risk and Information Technology

We find evidence that the conventional wisdom, among both managers and researchers, that information technology (IT) investments are risky is incorrect. IT managers are increasingly asked to justify IT investments in financial terms in order to gain project approval. Researchers have moved beyond productivity in an attempt to “open up the black box” of the returns to investment in IT. Using a sample of 653 firm-years for the years 1991-1996, this study finds that IT reduces systematic risk in the five-year period after the IT investment. The implication for managers is that, while implementation of IT projects is risky in the near term, managers should use lower return requirements for IT investments due to the longer-term impact of IT upon firm-level systematic risk. For researchers, the implication is that part of the reason for excessively high estimates of returns attributed to levels of IT capital may be that prior investment in IT may have reduced systematic risk and borrowing cost to the firm

Firm and Industrial Dynamics Over the Business Cycles

This dissertation consists of three essays. In Chapter 1, we proposes a dynamic multi-sector production network model in which firms receive news on the future product-specific demand of a representative household. Since production takes time and firms in the production sectors are connected via input-output links, news on the future final demand of an individual product changes firms\u27 forecasts of their future sales, creating economy-wide effects named as forecast shocks. Forecast shocks are transferred upwards through the supplier-customer connections in the network, from the buyer of an input good to the producer. The model explains the asymmetry in the transmission of individual shocks in the network and how shocks to the expectations generate real, persistent effects. The equilibrium is analytically solved and calibrated to the U.S. economy. Quantitative analysis then follows to examine the model performance. In Chapter 2, we incorporate a firm\u27s project choice decision into a firm dynamics model with business cycle features to explain this empirical finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, all projects available have the same expected flow return and differ from one another only in the riskiness level. The endogenous option of exiting the market and limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms\u27 risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the variance/standard deviation of firm-level profitability, is larger in recessions. In Chapter 3, we consider the impact of job rotation in a directed search model in which firm sizes are endogenously determined, and match quality is initially unknown. In a large firm, job rotation allows the firm to at least partially ameliorate losses from mismatches of workers to jobs. As a result, in the unique equilibrium, large firms have higher labor productivity and lower separation rate. In contrast to the standard directed search model with multi-vacancy firms, this model can generate a positive correlation between firm size and wage without introducing exogenous productivity shocks or a non-concave production function

Inflation, Investment Composition and Total Factor Productivity

This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial market friction to rationalize the empirically observed negative relationship between inflation and total factor productivity (TFP). Specifically, an empirical analysis of US macroeconomic time series establishes that there is a negative causal effect of inflation on aggregate productivity. Rather than taking the productivity process as exogenous, the model is therefore set up to feature an endogenous component of TFP. This is achieved by allowing physical investment to be channelled into two distinct technologies: a safe, but return-dominated technology and a superior technology which is subject to idiosyncratic liquidity risk. An agency problem prevents complete insurance against liquidity risk, and the scope for insurance is endogenously determined via the relevant liquidity premium. Since the liquidity premium is positively related to the rate of inflation, the model demonstrates how nominal fluctuations have an influence not only on the overall amount, but also on the qualitative composition of aggregate investment and hence on TFP. The quantitative relevance of the underlying transmission mechanism which links nominal fluctuations to TFP via corporate liquidity holdings and the composition of aggregate investment is corroborated by means of the quantitative analysis of the calibrated model economy as well as a detailed analysis of industry-level and firm-level panel data. Notably, the empirical findings are consistent with both the properties of the agency problem postulated in the theoretical model and its implications for corporate liquidity holdings and physical investment portfolios

Shareholders Unanimity With Incomplete Markets

Macroeconomic models with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets (e.g. Krusell and Smith, 1998) usually assume that consumers, rather than firms, own and accumulate physical capital. This assumption, while convenient, is without loss of generality only if the asset market is complete. When financial markets are incomplete, shareholders will in general disagree on the optimal level of investment to be undertaken by the firm. This paper derives conditions under which shareholders unanimity obtains in equilibrium despite the incompleteness of the asset market. In the general equilibrium economy analyzed here consumers face idiosyncratic labor income risk and trade firms' shares in the stock market. A firm's shareholders decide how much of its earnings to invest in physical capital and how much to distribute as dividends. The return on a firm's capital investment is affected by an aggregate productivity shock. The paper contains two main results. First, if the production function exhibits constant returns to scale and short-sales constraints are not binding, then in a competitive equilibrium a firm's shareholders will unanimously agree on the optimal level of investment. Thus, the allocation of resources in this economy is the same as in an economy where consumers accumulate physical capital directly. Second, when short-sales constraints are binding, instead, the unanimity result breaks down. In this case, constrained shareholders prefer a higher level of investment than unconstrained ones.

Labor hiring, investment and stock return predictability in the cross section

We document that the firm level hiring rate predicts stock returns in the cross-section of US publicly traded firms even after controlling for investment, size, book-to-market and momentum as well as other known predictors of stock returns. The predictability shows up in both Fama-MacBeth cross sectional regressions and in portfolio sorts and it is robust to the exclusion of micro cap firms from the sample. We propose a production-based asset pricing model with adjustment costs in labor and capital that replicates the main empirical findings well. Labor adjustment costs makes hiring decisions forward looking in nature and thus informative about the firms’ expectations about future cash-flows and risk-adjusted discount rates. The model implies that the investment rate and the hiring rate predicts stock returns because these variables proxy for the firm’s time-varying conditional beta

New Directions in Compensation Research: Synergies, Risk, and Survival

We describe and use two theoretical frameworks, the resource-based view of the firm and institutional theory, as lenses for examining three promising areas of compensation research. First, we examine the nature of the relationship between pay and effectiveness. Does pay typically have a main effect or, instead, does the relationship depend on other human resource activities and organization characteristics? If the latter is true, then there are synergies between pay and these other factors and thus, conclusions drawn from main effects models may be misleading. Second, we discuss a relatively neglected issue in pay research, the concept of risk as it applies to investments in pay programs. Although firms and researchers tend to focus on expected returns from compensation interventions, analysis of the risk, or variability, associated with these returns may be essential for effective decision-making. Finally ,pay program survival, which has been virtually ignored in systematic pay research, is investigated. Survival appears to have important consequences for estimating pay plan risk and returns, and is also integral to the discussion of pay synergies. Based upon our two theoretical frameworks, we suggest specific research directions for pay program synergies, risk, and survival

Apprenticeship training in England: a cost-effective model for firms?

In England, the government plans to incentivise spending of billions of pounds over the next few years promoting apprenticeships, with most of the finance raised from the apprenticeship levy on employers. Promoting more apprenticeships is designed to improve England’s skill base – a government policy priority given the relatively low level of skills and educational qualifications amongst a large part of the country’s workforce. But does such a policy make sense in an English context, with a historically limited participation of many employers in work related formal training? Is additional spending on apprenticeships likely to lead to positive economic returns for employers, workers and for England itself? And how varied are the net economic returns by employer and by sector? What works for one category of employment may not bring positive gains where returns to training are much lower. To answer these questions the JPMorgan Chase Foundation, the Education Policy Institute and the Bertelsmann Stiftung have come together and partnered with the internationally acknowledged economist Prof. Dr. Stefan C. Wolter to explore the costs and benefits of apprenticeship training for companies in England. This report by Prof. Dr. Stefan C. Wolter and Eva Joho brings a much needed degree of rigour and quantification to a policy area which is too often characterised by assumption, hunch, and international experience which may not apply in a very different country context. The authors have used evidence from Germany, Switzerland and Austria to simulate the costs and benefits of an apprenticeship policy applied in an English context. They are aware of the limitations of this approach - not least given the different tradition of employer engagement in England - but the analysis in this report is important and could help guide employer and government policies in directions that maximise economic returns and limit low return scenarios. In particular, the return by occupations is shown to be highly varied based on the return and cost characteristics of each sector. The returns by employer within each sector also vary markedly. The key conclusions the authors have derived in the report could help steer English policymakers and employers in more evidence based directions, which should help ensure that England’s large investment in this area is properly informed by evidence and more likely to yield positive returns. In addition, the present study complements studies with a similar methodology in Spain (2016) and Italy (to be published 2018), which will enable learnings for successful implementation of apprenticeship models across countries