Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Testing Market Response to Auditor Change Filings: a comparison of machine learning classifiers

The use of textual information contained in company filings with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K, has gained the increased attention of finance and accounting researchers. In this paper we use a set of machine learning methods to predict the market response to changes in a firm\u27s auditor as reported in public filings. We vectorize the text of 8-K filings to test whether the resulting feature matrix can explain the sign of the market response to the filing. Specifically, using classification algorithms and a sample consisting of the Item 4.01 text of 8-K documents, which provides information on changes in auditors of companies that are registered with the SEC, we predict the sign of the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around 8-K filing dates. We report the correct classification performance and time efficiency of the classification algorithms. Our results show some improvement over the naïve classification method

A General Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.Comment: version 2.02; 18 pages, 5 figures. This paper is related to but distinct from arXiv:1407.6333, and the results herein supersede arXiv:1407.6333. Source code available at https://github.com/mjbommar/scotus-predict-v

Detecting and Monitoring Hate Speech in Twitter

Social Media are sensors in the real world that can be used to measure the pulse of societies. However, the massive and unfiltered feed of messages posted in social media is a phenomenon that nowadays raises social alarms, especially when these messages contain hate speech targeted to a specific individual or group. In this context, governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are concerned about the possible negative impact that these messages can have on individuals or on the society. In this paper, we present HaterNet, an intelligent system currently being used by the Spanish National Office Against Hate Crimes of the Spanish State Secretariat for Security that identifies and monitors the evolution of hate speech in Twitter. The contributions of this research are many-fold: (1) It introduces the first intelligent system that monitors and visualizes, using social network analysis techniques, hate speech in Social Media. (2) It introduces a novel public dataset on hate speech in Spanish consisting of 6000 expert-labeled tweets. (3) It compares several classification approaches based on different document representation strategies and text classification models. (4) The best approach consists of a combination of a LTSM+MLP neural network that takes as input the tweet’s word, emoji, and expression tokens’ embeddings enriched by the tf-idf, and obtains an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.828 on our dataset, outperforming previous methods presented in the literatureThe work by Quijano-Sanchez was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation grant FJCI-2016-28855. The research of Liberatore was supported by the Government of Spain, grant MTM2015-65803-R, and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 691161 (GEOSAFE). All the financial support is gratefully acknowledge

Role of sentiment classification in sentiment analysis: a survey

Through a survey of literature, the role of sentiment classification in sentiment analysis has been reviewed. The review identifies the research challenges involved in tackling sentiment classification. A total of 68 articles during 2015 – 2017 have been reviewed on six dimensions viz., sentiment classification, feature extraction, cross-lingual sentiment classification, cross-domain sentiment classification, lexica and corpora creation and multi-label sentiment classification. This study discusses the prominence and effects of sentiment classification in sentiment evaluation and a lot of further research needs to be done for productive results