A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering

Safety and reliability are rigorously assessed during the design of dependable systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) processes are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). In conventional PRA, failure data about components is required for the purposes of quantitative analysis. In practice, it is not always possible to fully obtain this data due to unavailability of primary observations and consequent scarcity of statistical data about the failure of components. To handle such situations, fuzzy set theory has been successfully used in novel PRA approaches for safety and reliability evaluation under conditions of uncertainty. This paper presents a review of fuzzy set theory based methodologies applied to safety and reliability engineering, which include fuzzy FTA, fuzzy FMEA, fuzzy ETA, fuzzy Bayesian networks, fuzzy Markov chains, and fuzzy Petri nets. Firstly, we describe relevant fundamentals of fuzzy set theory and then we review applications of fuzzy set theory to system safety and reliability analysis. The review shows the context in which each technique may be more appropriate and highlights the overall potential usefulness of fuzzy set theory in addressing uncertainty in safety and reliability engineering

Adaptive Fault Diagnosis of Motors Using Comprehensive Learning Particle Swarm Optimizer with Fuzzy Petri Net

This study proposes and applies a comprehensive learning particle swarm optimization (CLPSO) fuzzy Petri net (FPN) algorithm, which is based on the CLPSO algorithm and FPN, to the fault diagnosis of a complex motor. First, the transition confidence is replaced by a Gaussian function to deal with the uncertainty of fault propagation. Then, according to the Petri net principle, a competition operator is introduced to improve the matrix reasoning. Finally, a CLPSO-FPN model for motor fault diagnosis is established based on the motor failure mechanism and fault characteristics. The CLPSO algorithm is used to generate the system parameters for fault diagnosis and to improve the adaptability and accuracy of fault diagnosis. This study considers the example of a three-phase asynchronous motor. The results show that the proposed algorithm can diagnose faults in this motor with satisfactory adaptability and accuracy compared with the traditional FPN algorithm. By establishing the system model, the fault propagation process of motors can be accurately and intuitively expressed, thus improving the fault treatment and equipment maintenance of motors

A bidirectional diagnosis algorithm of fuzzy Petri net using inner-reasoning-path

Fuzzy Petri net (FPN) is a powerful tool to execute the fault diagnosis function for various industrial applications. One of the most popular approaches for fault diagnosis is to calculate the corresponding algebra forms which record flow information and three parameters of value of all places and transitions of the FPN model. However, with the rapid growth of the complexity of the real system, the scale of the corresponding FPN is also increased sharply. It indicates that the complexity of the fault diagnosis algorithm is also raised due to the increased scale of vectors and matrix. Focusing on this situation, a bidirectional adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is presented in this article to reduce the complexity of the fault diagnosis process via removing irrelevant places and transitions of the large-scale FPN, followed by the correctness and algorithm complexity of the proposed approach that are also discussed in detail. A practical example is utilized to show the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed method. The results of the experiments illustrated that the proposed algorithm owns the ability to simplify the inference process and to reduce the algorithm complexity due to the removal of unnecessary places and transitions in the reasoning path of the appointed output place

The planning coordinator: A design architecture for autonomous error recovery and on-line planning of intelligent tasks

Developing a robust, task level, error recovery and on-line planning architecture is an open research area. There is previously published work on both error recovery and on-line planning; however, none incorporates error recovery and on-line planning into one integrated platform. The integration of these two functionalities requires an architecture that possesses the following characteristics. The architecture must provide for the inclusion of new information without the destruction of existing information. The architecture must provide for the relating of pieces of information, old and new, to one another in a non-trivial rather than trivial manner (e.g., object one is related to object two under the following constraints, versus, yes, they are related; no, they are not related). Finally, the architecture must be not only a stand alone architecture, but also one that can be easily integrated as a supplement to some existing architecture. This thesis proposal addresses architectural development. Its intent is to integrate error recovery and on-line planning onto a single, integrated, multi-processor platform. This intelligent x-autonomous platform, called the Planning Coordinator, will be used initially to supplement existing x-autonomous systems and eventually replace them

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

YesSystem safety, reliability and risk analysis are important tasks that are performed throughout the system lifecycle to ensure the dependability of safety-critical systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approaches are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Growing complexity of modern systems and their capability of behaving dynamically make it challenging for classical PRA techniques to analyse such systems accurately. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis of complex systems, different characteristics such as functional dependencies among components, temporal behaviour of systems, multiple failure modes/states for components/systems, and uncertainty in system behaviour and failure data are needed to be considered. Unfortunately, classical approaches are not capable of accounting for these aspects. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in risk assessment applications due to their flexible structure and capability of incorporating most of the above mentioned aspects during analysis. Furthermore, BNs have the ability to perform diagnostic analysis. Petri Nets are another formal graphical and mathematical tool capable of modelling and analysing dynamic behaviour of systems. They are also increasingly used for system safety, reliability and risk evaluation. This paper presents a review of the applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in system safety, reliability and risk assessments. The review highlights the potential usefulness of the BN and PN based approaches over other classical approaches, and relative strengths and weaknesses in different practical application scenarios.This work was funded by the DEIS H2020 project (Grant Agreement 732242)

Application of Fuzzy Reasoning Spiking Neural P Systems to Fault Diagnosis

This paper discusses the application of fuzzy reasoning spiking neural P systems with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (tFRSN P systems) to fault diagnosis of power systems, where a matrix-based fuzzy reasoning algorithm based on the dynamic firing mechanism of neurons is used to develop the inference ability of tFRSN P systems from classical reasoning to fuzzy reasoning. Some case studies show the effectiveness of the presented method. We also briefly draw comparisons between the presented method and several main fault diagnosis approaches from the perspectives of knowledge representation and inference process

An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks

This paper aims to develop a novel model to assess the risk factors of maritime supply chains by incorporating a fuzzy belief rule approach with Bayesian networks. The new model, compared to traditional risk analysis methods, has the capability of improving result accuracy under a high uncertainty in risk data. A real case of a world leading container shipping company is investigated, and the research results reveal that among the most significant risk factors are transportation of dangerous goods, fluctuation of fuel price, fierce competition, unattractive markets, and change of exchange rates in sequence. Such findings will provide useful insights for accident prevention

Classifiers for modeling of mineral potential

[Extract] Classification and allocation of land-use is a major policy objective in most countries. Such an undertaking, however, in the face of competing demands from different stakeholders, requires reliable information on resources potential. This type of information enables policy decision-makers to estimate socio-economic benefits from different possible land-use types and then to allocate most suitable land-use. The potential for several types of resources occurring on the earth's surface (e.g., forest, soil, etc.) is generally easier to determine than those occurring in the subsurface (e.g., mineral deposits, etc.). In many situations, therefore, information on potential for subsurface occurring resources is not among the inputs to land-use decision-making [85]. Consequently, many potentially mineralized lands are alienated usually to, say, further exploration and exploitation of mineral deposits. Areas with mineral potential are characterized by geological features associated genetically and spatially with the type of mineral deposits sought. The term 'mineral deposits' means .accumulations or concentrations of one or more useful naturally occurring substances, which are otherwise usually distributed sparsely in the earth's crust. The term 'mineralization' refers to collective geological processes that result in formation of mineral deposits. The term 'mineral potential' describes the probability or favorability for occurrence of mineral deposits or mineralization. The geological features characteristic of mineralized land, which are called recognition criteria, are spatial objects indicative of or produced by individual geological processes that acted together to form mineral deposits. Recognition criteria are sometimes directly observable; more often, their presence is inferred from one or more geographically referenced (or spatial) datasets, which are processed and analyzed appropriately to enhance, extract, and represent the recognition criteria as spatial evidence or predictor maps. Mineral potential mapping then involves integration of predictor maps in order to classify areas of unique combinations of spatial predictor patterns, called unique conditions [51] as either barren or mineralized with respect to the mineral deposit-type sought

Addressing Complexity and Intelligence in Systems Dependability Evaluation

Engineering and computing systems are increasingly complex, intelligent, and open adaptive. When it comes to the dependability evaluation of such systems, there are certain challenges posed by the characteristics of “complexity” and “intelligence”. The first aspect of complexity is the dependability modelling of large systems with many interconnected components and dynamic behaviours such as Priority, Sequencing and Repairs. To address this, the thesis proposes a novel hierarchical solution to dynamic fault tree analysis using Semi-Markov Processes. A second aspect of complexity is the environmental conditions that may impact dependability and their modelling. For instance, weather and logistics can influence maintenance actions and hence dependability of an offshore wind farm. The thesis proposes a semi-Markov-based maintenance model called “Butterfly Maintenance Model (BMM)” to model this complexity and accommodate it in dependability evaluation. A third aspect of complexity is the open nature of system of systems like swarms of drones which makes complete design-time dependability analysis infeasible. To address this aspect, the thesis proposes a dynamic dependability evaluation method using Fault Trees and Markov-Models at runtime.The challenge of “intelligence” arises because Machine Learning (ML) components do not exhibit programmed behaviour; their behaviour is learned from data. However, in traditional dependability analysis, systems are assumed to be programmed or designed. When a system has learned from data, then a distributional shift of operational data from training data may cause ML to behave incorrectly, e.g., misclassify objects. To address this, a new approach called SafeML is developed that uses statistical distance measures for monitoring the performance of ML against such distributional shifts. The thesis develops the proposed models, and evaluates them on case studies, highlighting improvements to the state-of-the-art, limitations and future work