Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded

NL4Py: Agent-Based Modeling in Python with Parallelizable NetLogo Workspaces

NL4Py is a NetLogo controller software for Python, for the rapid, parallel execution of NetLogo models. NL4Py provides both headless (no graphical user interface) and GUI NetLogo workspace control through Python. Spurred on by the increasing availability of open-source computation and machine learning libraries on the Python package index, there is an increasing demand for such rapid, parallel execution of agent-based models through Python. NetLogo, being the language of choice for a majority of agent-based modeling driven research projects, requires an integration to Python for researchers looking to perform statistical analyses of agent-based model output using these libraries. Unfortunately, until the recent introduction of PyNetLogo, and now NL4Py, such a controller was unavailable. This article provides a detailed introduction into the usage of NL4Py and explains its client-server software architecture, highlighting architectural differences to PyNetLogo. A step-by-step demonstration of global sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration of the Wolf Sheep Predation model is then performed through NL4Py. Finally, NL4Py's performance is benchmarked against PyNetLogo and its combination with IPyParallel, and shown to provide significant savings in execution time over both configurations

Neural Architecture Search using Deep Neural Networks and Monte Carlo Tree Search

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown great success in automating the design of neural networks, but the prohibitive amount of computations behind current NAS methods requires further investigations in improving the sample efficiency and the network evaluation cost to get better results in a shorter time. In this paper, we present a novel scalable Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based NAS agent, named AlphaX, to tackle these two aspects. AlphaX improves the search efficiency by adaptively balancing the exploration and exploitation at the state level, and by a Meta-Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict network accuracies for biasing the search toward a promising region. To amortize the network evaluation cost, AlphaX accelerates MCTS rollouts with a distributed design and reduces the number of epochs in evaluating a network by transfer learning, which is guided with the tree structure in MCTS. In 12 GPU days and 1000 samples, AlphaX found an architecture that reaches 97.84\% top-1 accuracy on CIFAR-10, and 75.5\% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, exceeding SOTA NAS methods in both the accuracy and sampling efficiency. Particularly, we also evaluate AlphaX on NASBench-101, a large scale NAS dataset; AlphaX is 3x and 2.8x more sample efficient than Random Search and Regularized Evolution in finding the global optimum. Finally, we show the searched architecture improves a variety of vision applications from Neural Style Transfer, to Image Captioning and Object Detection.Comment: To appear in the Thirty-Fourth AAAI conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2020

Agent-Based Simulation on Women's Role in a Family Line on Civil Service Examination in Chinese History

In this paper, following our previous work on civil service examinations in imperial China, we investigate women's role in a Chinese historical family line using an agent-based simulation (ABS) model with a grid oriented genetic algorithm (GOGA) framework. We utilize a GOGA framework, because our ABS had such large parameter spaces with real values that it required much greater computational resources. First, we studied the genealogical records. Second, based on that study, we implemented an agent-based model with the family lines branched out into two clusters to compare different family norms. Third, using an "inverse simulation" technique, we optimized the agent-based model in order to fit the simulation profiles to real profile data with real-coded GA. From these intensive experiments, we have found that (1) The combined influence of the father, uncle, mother and the aunt has important significance in maintaining a successful family norm, and (2) a particular role of the aunt to pass it on as well.Agent-Based Simulation, Grid Oriented Genetic Algorithm, Inverse Simulation, Family Norm, Civil Service Examination

On the use of biased-randomized algorithms for solving non-smooth optimization problems

Soft constraints are quite common in real-life applications. For example, in freight transportation, the fleet size can be enlarged by outsourcing part of the distribution service and some deliveries to customers can be postponed as well; in inventory management, it is possible to consider stock-outs generated by unexpected demands; and in manufacturing processes and project management, it is frequent that some deadlines cannot be met due to delays in critical steps of the supply chain. However, capacity-, size-, and time-related limitations are included in many optimization problems as hard constraints, while it would be usually more realistic to consider them as soft ones, i.e., they can be violated to some extent by incurring a penalty cost. Most of the times, this penalty cost will be nonlinear and even noncontinuous, which might transform the objective function into a non-smooth one. Despite its many practical applications, non-smooth optimization problems are quite challenging, especially when the underlying optimization problem is NP-hard in nature. In this paper, we propose the use of biased-randomized algorithms as an effective methodology to cope with NP-hard and non-smooth optimization problems in many practical applications. Biased-randomized algorithms extend constructive heuristics by introducing a nonuniform randomization pattern into them. Hence, they can be used to explore promising areas of the solution space without the limitations of gradient-based approaches, which assume the existence of smooth objective functions. Moreover, biased-randomized algorithms can be easily parallelized, thus employing short computing times while exploring a large number of promising regions. This paper discusses these concepts in detail, reviews existing work in different application areas, and highlights current trends and open research lines

Agent-based simulation of open source evolution

We present an agent-based simulation model developed to study how size, complexity and effort relate to each other in the development of open source software (OSS). In the model, many developer agents generate, extend, and re-factor code modules independently and in parallel. This accords with empirical observations of OSS development. To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes the complexity of software modules as a limiting factor in productivity, the fitness of the software to its requirements, and the motivation of developers. Validation of the model was done by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled the observed data, except for system size: three of the OSS systems showed alternating patterns of super-linear and sub-linear growth, while the simulations produced only super-linear growth. However, the fidelity of the model for the other measures suggests that developer motivation and the limiting effect of complexity on productivity have a significant effect on the development of OSS systems and should be considered in any model of OSS development