Prospects for large-scale financial systems simulation

As the 21st century unfolds, we find ourselves having to control, support, manage or otherwise cope with large-scale complex adaptive systems to an extent that is unprecedented in human history. Whether we are concerned with issues of food security, infrastructural resilience, climate change, health care, web science, security, or financial stability, we face problems that combine scale, connectivity, adaptive dynamics, and criticality. Complex systems simulation is emerging as the key scientific tool for dealing with such complex adaptive systems. Although a relatively new paradigm, it is one that has already established a track record in fields as varied as ecology (Grimm and Railsback, 2005), transport (Nagel et al., 1999), neuroscience (Markram, 2006), and ICT (Bullock and Cliff, 2004). In this report, we consider the application of simulation methodologies to financial systems, assessing the prospects for continued progress in this line of research

Environmental innovation and industrial dynamics: the contributions of evolutionary economics

The purpose of this article is to discuss the contributions of the evolutionary theory of innovation on the micro and meso dynamics of environmental innovations. We argue that the evolutionary literature on innovation, and more particularly on technological regimes, provides a relevant framework in order to analyse the various determinants of environmental innovations and the double externality problem in an industrial dynamics context. The article starts with an overview of the empirical literature on environmental innovations with a focus on their determinants and specificities. In section 3, we discuss the contributions of the evolutionary literature on technological regimes and argue that it can provide a relevant framework for a sectoral approach of environmental innovations. In section 4, we concentrate on the role of demand side dynamics and highlight the implications of technological competition models on the role of demand conditions in the diffusion of environmental technologies. Finally, section 5 is devoted to the implications of the evolutionary theory of innovation on the question of the transition towards more sustainable technological systems.Environmental innovations, industrial dynamics, evolutionary theory, technological regimes

Re-reengineering the dream: agility as competitive adaptability

Organizational adaptation and transformative change management in technology-based organizations is explored in the context of collaborative alliances. A Re-reengineering approach is outlined in which a new Competitive Adaptability Five-Influences Analysis approach under conditions of collaborative alliance, is described as an alternative to Porter’s Five-Forces Competitive Rivalry Analysis model. Whilst continuous change in technology and the associated effects of technology shock (Dedola & Neri, 2006; Christiano, Eichenbaum & Vigfusson, 2003) are not new constructs, the reality of the industrial age was and is a continuing reduction in timeline for relevance and lifetime for a specific technology and the related skills and expertise base required for its effective implementation. This, combined with increasing pressures for innovation (Tidd & Bessant, 2013) and at times severe impacts from both local and global economic environments (Hitt, Ireland & Hoskisson, 2011) raises serious challenges for contemporary management teams seeking to strategically position a company and its technology base advantageously, relative to its suppliers, competitors and customers, as well as in predictive readiness for future technological change and opportunistic adaptation. In effect, the life-cycle of a technology has become typically one of disruptive change and rapid adjustment, followed by a plateau as a particular technology or process captures and holds its position against minor challenges, eventually to be displaced by yet another alternative (Bower & Christensen, 1995)

Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory

Enhancing integrated environmental modelling by designing resource-oriented interfaces

Integrated environmental modelling is gaining momentum for addressing grand scientific challenges such as monitoring the environment for change detection and forecasting environmental conditions along with the consequences for society. Such challenges can only be addressed by a multi-disciplinary approach, in which socio-economic, geospatial, and environmental information becomes inter-connected. However, existing solutions cannot be seamlessly integrated and current interaction paradigms prevent mainstream usage of the existing technology. In particular, it is still difficult to access and join harmonized data and processing algorithms that are provided by different environmental information infrastructures. In this paper we take a novel approach for integrated environmental modelling based on the notion of inter-linked resources on the Web. We present design practices for creating resource-oriented interfaces, driven by an interaction protocol built on the combination of valid linkages to enhance resource integration, accompanied by associated recommendations for implementation. The suggested resource-oriented approach provides a solution to the problems identified above, but still requires intense prototyping and experimentation. We discuss the central open issues and present a roadmap for future research

Scientific Research about Climate Change Mitigation in Transport : A critical review

Peer reviewedPostprin

Agent based modelling and simulation: An examination of customer retention in the UK mobile market

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Customer retention is an important issue for any business, especially in mature markets such as the UK mobile market where new customers can only be acquired from competitors. Different methods and techniques have been used to investigate customer retention including statistical methods and data mining. However, due to the increasing complexity of the mobile market, the effectiveness of these techniques is questionable. This study proposes Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) as a novel approach to investigate customer retention. ABMS is an emerging means of simulating behaviour and examining behavioural consequences. In outline, agents represent customers and agent relationships represent processes of agent interaction. This study follows the design science paradigm to build and evaluate a generic, reusable, agent-based (CubSim) model to examine the factors affecting customer retention based on data extracted from a UK mobile operator. Based on these data, two data mining models are built to gain a better understanding of the problem domain and to identify the main limitations of data mining. This is followed by two interrelated development cycles: (1) Build the CubSim model, starting with modelling customer interaction with the market, including interaction with the service provider and other competing operators in the market; and (2) Extend the CubSim model by incorporating interaction among customers. The key contribution of this study lies in using ABMS to identify and model the key factors that affect customer retention simultaneously and jointly. In this manner, the CubSim model is better suited to account for the dynamics of customer churn behaviour in the UK mobile market than all other existing models. Another important contribution of this study is that it provides an empirical, actionable insight on customer retention. In particular, and most interestingly, the experimental results show that applying a mixed customer retention strategy targeting both high value customers and customers with a large personal network outperforms the traditional customer retention strategies, which focuses only on the customer‘s value.This work is funded by the Brunel Department of Information Systems and Computing (DISC

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis (Routledge) via the DOI in this record.Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall “black box” critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability