Assimilating SAR-derived water level data into a hydraulic model: a case study

Satellite-based active microwave sensors not only provide synoptic overviews of flooded areas, but also offer an effective way to estimate spatially distributed river water levels. If rapidly produced and processed, these data can be used for updating hydraulic models in near real-time. The usefulness of such approaches with real event data sets provided by currently existing sensors has yet to be demonstrated. In this case study, a Particle Filter-based assimilation scheme is used to integrate ERS-2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR-derived water level data into a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model of the Alzette River. Two variants of the Particle Filter assimilation scheme are proposed with a global and local particle weighting procedure. The first option finds the best water stage line across all cross sections, while the second option finds the best solution at individual cross sections. The variant that is to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. The results show that the Particle Filter-based assimilation of remote sensing-derived water elevation data provides a significant reduction in the uncertainty at the analysis step. Moreover, it is shown that the periodical updating of hydraulic models through the proposed assimilation scheme leads to an improvement of model predictions over several time steps. However, the performance of the assimilation depends on the skill of the hydraulic model and the quality of the observation data

Deep Neural Network Cloud-Type Classification (DeepCTC) model and its application in evaluating PERSIANN-CCS

Satellite remote sensing plays a pivotal role in characterizing hydrometeorological components including cloud types and their associated precipitation. The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on the Polar Orbiting CloudSat satellite has provided a unique dataset to characterize cloud types. However, data from this nadir-looking radar offers limited capability for estimating precipitation because of the narrow satellite swath coverage and low temporal frequency. We use these high-quality observations to build a Deep Neural Network Cloud-Type Classification (DeepCTC) model to estimate cloud types from multispectral data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform. The DeepCTC model is trained and tested using coincident data from both CloudSat and ABI over the CONUS region. Evaluations of DeepCTC indicate that the model performs well for a variety of cloud types including Altostratus, Altocumulus, Cumulus, Nimbostratus, Deep Convective and High clouds. However, capturing low-level clouds remains a challenge for the model. Results from simulated GOES-16 ABI imageries of the Hurricane Harvey event show a large-scale perspective of the rapid and consistent cloud-type monitoring is possible using the DeepCTC model. Additionally, assessments using half-hourly Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate data (for Hurricane Harvey as a case study) show the ability of DeepCTC in identifying rainy clouds, including Deep Convective and Nimbostratus and their precipitation potential. We also use DeepCTC to evaluate the performance of the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) product over different cloud types with respect to MRMS referenced at a half-hourly time scale for July 2018. Our analysis suggests that DeepCTC provides supplementary insights into the variability of cloud types to diagnose the weakness and strength of near real-time GEO-based precipitation retrievals. With additional training and testing, we believe DeepCTC has the potential to augment the widely used PERSIANN-CCS algorithm for estimating precipitation

Estimation of Global Solar Radiation from Temperature Extremes: A Case Study of Hebron City, Palestine

Solar radiation is the main energy source for mankind and an accurate data of solar radiation levels for a particular location is vital for the optimum operation of solar energy transducers such as photovoltaic cells and solar thermal collectors. This study aimed to calibrate some of the existing models in the literature for estimating daily global solar radiation parameter using available measured records of air temperature extremes and new models were developed based on maximum and minimum air temperatures. Applicability of the Hargreaves model, Allen model, Bristow-Campbell model and Chen et al. model were evaluated for computing the global solar radiation for Hebron city in Palestine. Estimated values were compared with measured values in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). All models provide good estimates when compared to the accurate values with R2 0.9226 (Bristow-Campbell model) to 0.9547 (Chen et al. model), while the proposed model provides a value of 0.9632. The RMSE value ranges from 0.7632 for Chen et al. model to 0.9211 for Bristow-Campbell model, however a lower value (0.7118) for the proposed model. This study found that the proposed model estimates global solar radiation at the location of study better than the other models.We would like to acknowledge the Palestinian meteorological stations network office for their kindly help in providing the data

Modelling discrepancy in Bayesian calibration of reservoir models

Simulation models of physical systems such as oil field reservoirs are subject to numerous uncertainties such as observation errors and inaccurate initial and boundary conditions. However, after accounting for these uncertainties, it is usually observed that the mismatch between the simulator output and the observations remains and the model is still inadequate. This incapability of computer models to reproduce the real-life processes is referred to as model inadequacy. This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for modelling discrepancy in the Bayesian calibration and probabilistic forecasting of reservoir models. The framework efficiently implements data-driven approaches to handle uncertainty caused by ignoring the modelling discrepancy in reservoir predictions using two major hierarchical strategies, parametric and non-parametric hierarchical models. The central focus of this thesis is on an appropriate way of modelling discrepancy and the importance of the model selection in controlling overfitting rather than different solutions to different noise models. The thesis employs a model selection code to obtain the best candidate solutions to the form of non-parametric error models. This enables us to, first, interpolate the error in history period and, second, propagate it towards unseen data (i.e. error generalisation). The error models constructed by inferring parameters of selected models can predict the response variable (e.g. oil rate) at any point in input space (e.g. time) with corresponding generalisation uncertainty. In the real field applications, the error models reliably track down the uncertainty regardless of the type of the sampling method and achieve a better model prediction score compared to the models that ignore discrepancy. All the case studies confirm the enhancement of field variables prediction when the discrepancy is modelled. As for the model parameters, hierarchical error models render less global bias concerning the reference case. However, in the considered case studies, the evidence for better prediction of each of the model parameters by error modelling is inconclusive

The Extent Of Social Media Practices In Malaysian Sme: Migrating From Adoption To Measurement

Social media is leveraged by businesses at a discernible pace. Most often social media is used to instill brand awareness, to stimulate communication, to facilitate relationships, to spur information exchange and innovation, to track customers’ voice, and so forth. Despite the increasing imperative to the varieties of business routines, the measurement aspects of social media marketing initiatives are limitedly discussed. Furthermore, the literature has found the lack of firms’ sensitivity to measurement activities or success indicators for their social media marketing investments. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the extent of social media measurement practices in business from two contexts: first, in the prominent platform of social networking sites, and second, in the perspective of Malaysian SMEs. A preliminary investigation was conducted with 30 respondents from selected industry groups in services and manufacturing sectors to acquire the well-informed data in the SMEs of the southern region. The findings have shaped several themes of social media adoption and evaluation practices for Malaysian SMEs. Accordingly, the barriers and future directions of measurement efforts on social media platform are discussed

Application of fuzzy logic in performance management: a literature review

[EN] Performance management has become in a key success factor for any organization. Traditionally, performance management has focused uniquely in financial measures, mainly using quantitative measures, but two decades ago they were extended towards an integral view of the organization, appearing qualitative measures. This type of extended view and associated measures have a degree of uncertainty that needs to be bounded. One of the essential tools for uncertainty bounding is the fuzzy logic and, therefore,the main objective of this paper is the analysis of the literature about the application of fuzzy logic in performance measurement systems operating within uncertainty environments with the aim of categorizing, conceptualizing and classifying the works written so far. Finally, three categories are defined according to the different uses of fuzzy logic within performance management concluding that the most important application of fuzzy logic that counts with a higher number of studies is uncertainty bounding.Gurrea Montesinos, V.; Alfaro Saiz, JJ.; Rodríguez Rodríguez, R.; Verdecho Sáez, MJ. (2014). Application of fuzzy logic in performance management: a literature review. International Journal of Production Management and Engineering. 2(2):93-100. doi:10.4995/ijpme.2014.1859SWORD9310022Amini, S., & Jochem, R. (2011). A Conceptual Model Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory to Measure and Evaluate the Performance of Service Processes. 2011 IEEE 15th International Enterprise Distributed Object Computing Conference Workshops. doi:10.1109/edocw.2011.25Ammar, S. & Wright, R. (1995), "A Fuzzy Logic Approach to Performance Evaluation". Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, 1995, and Annual Conference of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society. Proceedings of ISUMA - NAFIPS '95., pp. 246 - 251Ammar, S., & Wright, R. (2000). Applying fuzzy-set theory to performance evaluation. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 34(4), 285-302. doi:10.1016/s0038-0121(00)00004-5Arango, M.D., Jaimes, W.A. & Zapata, J.A. (2010) "Gestion cadena de abastecimiento - Logistica con indicadores bajo incertidumbre, caso aplicado sector panificador palmira" Ciencia e Ingeniería Neogranadina, Vol. 20-1, pp. 97-115.Beheshti, H. M., & Lollar, J. G. (2008). Fuzzy logic and performance evaluation: discussion and application. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 57(3), 237-246. doi:10.1108/17410400810857248Behrouzi, F., & Wong, K. Y. (2011). Lean performance evaluation of manufacturing systems: A dynamic and innovative approach. Procedia Computer Science, 3, 388-395. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2010.12.065Chan, T.S., Ql, H.J. (2003), "An innovative performance measurement method for supply chain management". Sup-ply Chain Management: An International Journal Volume 8 Number 3, pp. 209-223.Chan, F. T. S., Qi, H. J., Chan, H. K., Lau, H. C. W., & Ip, R. W. L. (2003). A conceptual model of performance measurement for supply chains. Management Decision, 41(7), 635-642. doi:10.1108/00251740310495568Chen, C.-T., Lin, C.-T., & Huang, S.-F. (2006). A fuzzy approach for supplier evaluation and selection in supply chain management. International Journal of Production Economics, 102(2), 289-301. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2005.03.009Cheng, S., Hsu, B., & Shu, M. (2007). Fuzzy testing and selecting better processes performance. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 107(6), 862-881. doi:10.1108/02635570710758761Ferreira, A., Azevedo,S. &Fazendeiro, P. (2012) "A Linguistic Approach to Supply Chain Performance Assessment". IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Sistems, pp.1-5.Lau, H. C. W., Kai Pang, W., & Wong, C. W. Y. (2002). Methodology for monitoring supply chain performance: a fuzzy logic approach. Logistics Information Management, 15(4), 271-280. doi:10.1108/09576050210436110Lalmazloumian M. & Yew K., (2012), "A Review of Modelling Approaches for Supply Chain Planning Under Un-certainty". 9th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), pp. 197-203.Liao, M.-Y., & Wu, C.-W. (2010). Evaluating process performance based on the incapability index for measurements with uncertainty. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(8), 5999-6006. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.02.005Lu, C. & Wei li, X. (2006), "Supply Chain Modeling Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory in an Uncertain Envi-ronment". The Sixth World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation, Vol.2, pp. 3608-3612.Mahnam, M., Yadollahpour, M. R., Famil-Dardashti, V., & Hejazi, S. R. (2009). Supply chain modeling in uncertain environment with bi-objective approach. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 56(4), 1535-1544. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2008.09.038Muñoz, M. J., Rivera, J. M., & Moneva, J. M. (2008). Evaluating sustainability in organisations with a fuzzy logic approach. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 108(6), 829-841. doi:10.1108/02635570810884030Olugu, E. U., & Wong, K. Y. (2012). An expert fuzzy rule-based system for closed-loop supply chain performance assessment in the automotive industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(1), 375-384. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.07.026Tabrizi, B. H., & Razmi, J. (2013). Introducing a mixed-integer non-linear fuzzy model for risk management in designing supply chain networks. Journal of Manufacturing Systems, 32(2), 295-307. doi:10.1016/j.jmsy.2012.12.001Theeranuphattana, A., & Tang, J. C. S. (2007). A conceptual model of performance measurement for supply chains. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 19(1), 125-148. doi:10.1108/17410380810843480Unahabhokha, C., Platts, K., & Hua Tan, K. (2007). Predictive performance measurement system. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 14(1), 77-91. doi:10.1108/14635770710730946Van der Vorst, J. G. A. J., & Beulens, A. J. M. (2002). Identifying sources of uncertainty to generate supply chain redesign strategies. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 32(6), 409-430. doi:10.1108/09600030210437951Wei, C., Liou, T., & Lee, K. (2008). An ERP performance measurement framework using a fuzzy integral approach. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 19(5), 607-626. doi:10.1108/17410380810877285Xu Xiao Xia, L., Ma, B. & Lim, R. (2008) "Supplier Performance Measurement in a Supply Chain". 6th IEEE Inter-national Conference on Industrial Informatics, pp. 877-881

A Framework to Project Future Rainfall Scenarios: An Application to Shallow Landslide-Triggering Summer Rainfall in Wanzhou County China

Fatal landslides are a widespread geohazard that have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe. A change in climate has significantly increased the frequency and magnitude of rainfall, which affect the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides. This paper presents a methodological framework to assess the future changes in extreme and seasonal rainfall magnitudes with climate model projections. This framework was applied to project summer rainfall over Wanzhou County, China, using an ensemble of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the East Asian domain of the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the Phase 5 Coupled Intercomparison Modeling Project (CMIP5). The results find that extreme daily rainfall was projected to decrease in the mid-21st century, with an uncertainty measured by a coefficient of variation between 5% and 25%. The mean seasonal rainfall is projected to increase in the mid-21st century up to a factor of 1.4, and up to a factor of 1.8 in the late-21st century. The variation in the mid21st century ranged from 10% to 35%, and from 30% to 50% in the late-21st century. This case study delivered a proof-of-concept for a methodological framework to derive shallow landslide-triggering rainfall scenarios under climate change conditions. The resulting spatially distributed climate change factors (CCFs) can be used to incorporate future rainfall scenarios in slope susceptibility models and climate impact assessments.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al ClimaPostprint (updated version

Application of formal safety assessment for ship hull vibration modelling

This research has evaluated the rules, guidelines and regulations related to ship vibrations. A historical failure data analysis is carried out to identify associated components, equipment and the areas of defects related to ship vibration problems. Ship Hull Vibration (SHV) is recognised as a major problem onboard ships and the propulsion system is identified as the major contributor to SHV. The current status of ship vibrations is reviewed and possible sources which create SHV are recognised. The major problems identified in this research are associated with risk modelling under circumstances where high levels of uncertainty exist. Following the identification of research needs, this PhD thesis has developed several analytical models for the application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Such mode quently demonstrated by their corresponding case sti vith regard to application of FSA for SHV modelling. Firstly, in this research a generic SHV model is constructed for the purpose of risk estimation based on the identified hazards. The hazards include the SHV effects induced by ship design criteria, failure of components, and different patterns associated with the ship propulsion system (propeller system and machinery) as the major contributors to SHV. Then risk estimation bn is carried out utilising Evidential Reasoning (ER) and a fuzzy rule base.Secondly, ship selection (decision making) is investigated to to select the best ship design based on the risk estimation results of SHV. The risk estimation is carried out using ER, a fuzzy rule base and continuous fuzzy sets. The best ship design is selected by taking into account an ER-based utility ranking approach. Thirdly, combining discrete fuzzy sets and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) risk estimation is conducted in terms of four risk parameters to select the major causes of component failure and then SHV

Observation-based global soil heterotrophic respiration indicates underestimated turnover and sequestration of soil carbon by terrestrial ecosystem models

This study is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 41988101), National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFA0607304), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number: 42022004 and 41901085) and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0606).Peer reviewedPostprin