48,125 research outputs found

    Quick inference for log Gaussian Cox processes with non-stationary underlying random fields

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    For point patterns observed in natura, spatial heterogeneity is more the rule than the exception. In numerous applications, this can be mathematically handled by the flexible class of log Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs); in brief, a LGCP is a Cox process driven by an underlying log Gaussian random field (log GRF). This allows the representation of point aggregation, point vacuum and intermediate situations, with more or less rapid transitions between these different states depending on the properties of GRF. Very often, the covariance function of the GRF is assumed to be stationary. In this article, we give two examples where the sizes (that is, the number of points) and the spatial extents of point clusters are allowed to vary in space. To tackle such features, we propose parametric and semiparametric models of non-stationary LGCPs where the non-stationarity is included in both the mean function and the covariance function of the GRF. Thus, in contrast to most other work on inhomogeneous LGCPs, second-order intensity-reweighted stationarity is not satisfied and the usual two step procedure for parameter estimation based on e.g. composite likelihood does not easily apply. Instead we propose a fast three step procedure based on composite likelihood. We apply our modelling and estimation framework to analyse datasets dealing with fish aggregation in a reservoir and with dispersal of biological particles

    Remote sensing observatory validation of surface soil moisture using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer E, Common Land Model, and ground based data: Case study in SMEX03 Little River Region, Georgia, U.S.

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    Optimal soil moisture estimation may be characterized by intercomparisons among remotely sensed measurements, groundā€based measurements, and land surface models. In this study, we compared soil moisture from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer E (AMSRā€E), groundā€based measurements, and a Soilā€Vegetationā€Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model for the Soil Moisture Experiments in 2003 (SMEX03) Little River region, Georgia. The Common Land Model (CLM) reasonably replicated soil moisture patterns in dry down and wetting after rainfall though it had modest wet biases (0.001ā€“0.054 m3/m3) as compared to AMSRā€E and ground data. While the AMSRā€E average soil moisture agreed well with the other data sources, it had extremely low temporal variability, especially during the growing season from May to October. The comparison results showed that highest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were 0.054 and 0.059 m3/m3 for short and long periods, respectively. Even if CLM and AMSRā€E had complementary strengths, low MAE (0.018ā€“0.054 m3/m3) and RMSE (0.023ā€“0.059 m3/m3) soil moisture errors for CLM and soil moisture low biases (0.003ā€“0.031 m3/m3) for AMSRā€E, care should be taken prior to employing AMSRā€E retrieved soil moisture products directly for hydrological application due to its failure to replicate temporal variability. AMSRā€E error characteristics identified in this study should be used to guide enhancement of retrieval algorithms and improve satellite observations for hydrological sciences

    Local likelihood estimation of complex tail dependence structures, applied to U.S. precipitation extremes

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    To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework yields non-trivial tail dependence structures, with a weakening dependence strength as events become more extreme, a feature commonly observed with precipitation data but not accounted for in classical asymptotic extreme-value models. To estimate the local extremal behavior, we fit the proposed model in small regional neighborhoods to high threshold exceedances, under the assumption of local stationarity, which allows us to gain in flexibility. Adopting a local censored likelihood approach, inference is made on a fine spatial grid, and local estimation is performed by taking advantage of distributed computing resources and the embarrassingly parallel nature of this estimation procedure. The local model is efficiently fitted at all grid points, and uncertainty is measured using a block bootstrap procedure. An extensive simulation study shows that our approach can adequately capture complex, non-stationary dependencies, while our study of U.S. winter precipitation data reveals interesting differences in local tail structures over space, which has important implications on regional risk assessment of extreme precipitation events
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