Parameter estimation for the stochastic SIS epidemic model

In this paper we estimate the parameters in the stochastic SIS epidemic model by using pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation (pseudo-MLE) and least squares estimation. We obtain the point estimators and 100(1 − α)% confidence intervals as well as 100(1 − α)% joint confidence regions by applying least squares techniques. The pseudo-MLEs have almost the same form as the least squares case. We also obtain the exact as well as the asymptotic 100(1 − α)% joint confidence regions for the pseudo-MLEs. Computer simulations are performed to illustrate our theory

On the almost sure running maxima of solutions of affine stochastic functional differential equations

This paper studies the large fluctuations of solutions of scalar and finite-dimensional affine stochastic functional differential equations with finite memory as well as related nonlinear equations. We find conditions under which the exact almost sure growth rate of the running maximum of each component of the system can be determined, both for affine and nonlinear equations. The proofs exploit the fact that an exponentially decaying fundamental solution of the underlying deterministic equation is sufficient to ensure that the solution of the affine equation converges to a stationary Gaussian process

A threshold model for local volatility: evidence of leverage and mean reversion effects on historical data

In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage and mean-reversion effects in the dynamics of the prices. This model exhibits a regime switch in the dynamics accordingly to a certain threshold. It can be seen as a continuous-time version of the Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model. We propose an estimation procedure for the volatility and drift coefficients as well as for the threshold level. Parameters estimated on the daily prices of 348 stocks of NYSE and S\&P 500, on different time windows, show consistent empirical evidence for leverageeffects. Mean-reversion effects are also detected, most markedly in crisis periods

Conjugate duality in stochastic controls with delay

This paper uses the method of conjugate duality to investigate a class of stochastic optimal control problems where state systems are described by stochastic differential equations with delay. For this, we first analyse a stochastic convex problem with delay and derive the expression for the corresponding dual problem. This enables us to obtain the relationship between the optimalities for the two problems. Then, by linking stochastic optimal control problems with delay with a particular type of stochastic convex problem, the result for the latter leads to sufficient maximum principles for the former